The current market has relatively pessimistic expectations for the sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 and the possible first-class war. In order to understand this trend more deeply, we start with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in different ** bands, CR3 (the market share of the top three brands), the number and quality of potential models, and other key indicators.
First of all, looking at the market penetration rate data of new energy vehicles, according to the first interval division, the penetration rate of each interval shows the following trend: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the range of 25-300,000 yuan is the highest, reaching 61%; followed by the range of 20-250,000 yuan, with a penetration rate of 42%; the second is the range of more than 300,000 yuan, which is 41%; then in the range of 10-150,000 yuan, which is 29%; Finally, it is in the range of 15-200,000 yuan, with a penetration rate of 26%.
Next, focus on the CR3 data, which is the sum of the market shares of the top three brands in each ** range. Among them, the CR3 of new energy vehicles in the range of 25-300,000 yuan is as high as 77%, which means that the head effect in this range is obvious, and Tesla occupies about 50% of the share; It is followed by the 10-150,000 yuan range, with a CR3 of 74%, and BYD dominates the range, with a market share of up to 59%; CR3 in the range of 15-200,000 yuan is 62%, and BYD still maintains a strong share, accounting for 35% of the share; The CR3 in the range of 20-250,000 yuan and more than 300,000 yuan are 51% and 56% respectively.
As for the number of potential new cars, the market with more than 300,000 yuan has the most potential models, with 11 models; followed by the range of 20-250,000 yuan, with 9 new models; There are 6 models and 5 models in the range of 10-150,000 yuan, 15-200,000 yuan and 25-300,000 yuan, respectively.
According to the above data and the review of 2023, we can see that 20-300,000 yuan is the core battlefield of the new energy vehicle war, which was initiated by Tesla, and BYD, new forces and other manufacturers have followed up one after another. It is expected that by 2024, the pressure of the first war will be further transmitted to the low-end market, and may be concentrated in the 20-250,000 yuan ** band. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in this range is 42%, the market competition pattern is relatively scattered, and there are a number of high-quality new models such as Xiaomi, Xiaopeng G7, Zeekrypton 007, BYD Song L, Hiace and Model 3 after price reduction are about to enter the market.
In contrast, although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the 25-300,000 yuan market is as high as 61%, the CR3 is higher and the market concentration is higher, especially Tesla occupies half of the country, and the number of potential models is relatively small, if the main sales price of the new model is in the range of 25-300,000, it will face greater competitive pressure, so it may choose to sink to the 20-250,000 range to highlight the cost-effective advantage.
For the two markets of 10-150,000 yuan and 15-200,000 yuan, we believe that the price reduction pressure is relatively small. The reason for this is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in both markets is below average, between 25% and 30%, and the CR3 is high, and BYD dominates the market, with a market share of 59% and 35%, respectively. Especially in the 10-150,000 yuan market, BYD has no real competitors at present by virtue of its strong scale advantage, cost control ability and product cost performance, and even if the price reduction of joint venture fuel vehicles cannot effectively stimulate market demand. In addition, BYD plans to launch the Qinyuan series of new vehicles in 2024, which will further consolidate its market share in these ** ranges.
Finally, although the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market of more than 300,000 yuan is about 41%, and the CR3 has also reached 56%, and there are more high-quality potential models ready to go, we expect that the pressure of the first war will not be significant. This is because consumer preferences in this price range are more diverse, brand positioning is more high-end, and the main goal is to benchmark luxury brands such as BBA.
Note: The data and opinions in this article are provided by the new team of Tianfeng Power and are for reference only.
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