Text: Yang Guoying.
The sad year of 2023 has passed.
A year ago today, everyone was still looking forward to 2023, when the epidemic had just ended, and everyone fantasized about 2023.
However, a year has passed, and the results have been dismalyearsEveryone is not a big job, but a big one.
In 2023, there are three more unexpected, which will finally go down in history.
The first one I never expected,The number of newborns in China hit a record low.
In 2023, for the first time since the 1930s, the number of newborns in our country will fall below the 8 million mark.
What is the concept that the number of newborns has fallen below 8 million?
It has never happened since liberation in 1949.
In the past nearly 100 years, the last time the number of newborns fell below 8 million was in 1939, during the War of Resistance Against Japan, when the number of newborns was 7.57 million.
Now the number of newborns has plummeted suddenly, only from 2018 to the present, it is only six years, the number of newborns in my country has been reduced by half, that is to say, now, not to mention the two-child policy, even the complete and comprehensive liberalization of family planning, and even the financial subsidies for giving birth, are now useless.
The second one was never expected,The number of foreclosure houses in China hit a record high.
In 2023, the number of foreclosure houses in China will be almost 800,000 units, while in 2013, the number of foreclosure houses in China will only be about 5,000 units, and in 10 years, the number of foreclosure houses in our country has increased by more than 100 times, which is not scary.
The number of foreclosure houses has hit a record high, which shows that more and more mortgages are now out of payment, housing prices have plummeted, coupled with the negative impact of the current economic downturn on personal or family income, which has led to more and more personal or family financial explosions.
You must know that as a last resort, which person and family are willing to be on the credit blacklist and willing to have their property auctioned.
The third one never expected,yearsaThe performance of stocks is the lowest in the world.
In 2023, A-shares will rank first among major global markets.
This year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 5%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by more than 15%, and the ChiNext Index fell by more than 20%.
It is precisely 2023 that is a year of general rise in the world, in the same period, the NASDAQ has risen by more than 40%, and Japan has risen by more than 25%, and Europe, which has suffered the most from the energy impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war, will generally rise by nearly 20% in 2023, whether it is Europe 50, or Germany and France, and India, which will continue to rise by nearly 20% in 2023 after rising 10 times in 10 years, but our A shares are still fighting a 3000-point defense war. It is fighting a 2,900-point defense battle, and if it continues to fall, the next battle will be a 2,800-point defense battle, a 2,700-point defense battle, and even a 2,600-point defense battle.
This year, the world's top ** generally rose sharply, but A-shares slumped and the bear crowned the world, which not only did not make A-share shareholders sad.
Personally, I never expected the above three, and in fact, I should have thought of two and a half.
I expected the number of newborns to hit a record low in 2023, and this has something to do with economic prosperity, but it doesn't have much to do with it.
The more important reason is that the realism of East Asian culture is superimposed on the investment doctrine of marriage and childbirth, and we should note that the ultra-low birth rate of Japan and South Korea, which are both located in East Asia, has lasted for two or three decades, which is an inevitable reflection of East Asian culture after the economy has entered the middle income relatively high, and it is based on the inevitable compromise to reality (late birth, less birth, or no birth) brought about by educational comparison (including comparison in other aspects).
In addition, now not only East Asia, but also Europe, the United States and the West developed countries, for marriage and childbirth, there is a strong demand for investmentism, of course, this belongs to the social psychology level, which will inevitably lead to the mismatch of marriage, both men and women hope to be able to be high-matched, which is obviously impossible, and for childbirth, the traditional child-rearing and anti-aging does not exist now, which leads to the so-called return on investment of childbirth now has no new standard.
I also expected a record high in foreclosure in 2023, which has a lot to do with economic prosperity.
The economic downturn has led to a decline in the expected income (cash flow) of individuals and families, and 80% of our residents' wealth is locked in real estate, and a considerable number of families are leveraged to buy houses with higher mortgages.
At the same time, the economic downturn has also directly caused a larger increase in housing price expectations, and I have actually been talking about the large housing price expectations for more than two years, and I have been writing at least six or seven articles a year to emphasize the structural changes in the logic of real estate pricing, as well as predicting that housing prices will continue as a whole.
Now, it's no surprise that the decline in cash flow for many households, combined with the steep increase in home prices**, has led to a record number of foreclosure homes.
RightyearsaBear crown in the world, this, to be honest, I only predicted half of it.
Before July 2023, I, like many people, felt that after the end of the three years of the epidemic, the market performance for the whole year of 2023 should not be too bad - the big ** in October 2022, we predicted it, and the ** at the beginning of 2023, we also expected it, but we never predicted this wave of ** from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.
For the bear of the A-share market in 2023, I only began to have a clear perception in late July, when I conducted overseas research again after the epidemic, and this overseas research made me deeply determine the negative impact of the global industrial chain and ** chain restructuring on China's economy and A-share valuation during the epidemic (especially in 2022), and therefore, we began to emphasize reasonable and legal global asset diversification from August.
The wheel of history will run over the unfamiliar and tragic traces in 2023.
However, this rustiness,years we may not be sparse anymore.
This pathos,years and we will probably continue to-The three in 2023 never expected that there would be at least two, and we will continue to do so in 2024.
Let's talk about today's market.
years to NikkeiThe index broke for the first timeDot.
Japan's economy has experienced a "lost thirty years", and now Japan** is gradually returning to its former peak state.
After closing at a 34-year high on January 10, the Nikkei continued to break through 35,000 points for the first time during the 11th Asia Pacific trading session, hitting a new high since February 1990, while the Topix index also hit its highest point since 1990.
Japan's ** continued to hit a new high, continuing the trend of last year's**, and Japan's ** mainly benefited from three factors, first, the profitability of Japanese companies has been significantly improved, and the net profit margin and return on equity of the constituent stocks of the Orient Stock Exchange Index have increased significantly in the past three years, with the former increasing from 4% to 84%, the latter from 18% to 58%。
Secondly, the boost of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, the extreme "** central bank is the key driver of Japan's *** in recent years, most central banks around the world are in the process of continuing to raise interest rates, the Bank of Japan still maintains its low interest rates, asset purchases and yield curve control (YCC) policies.
Finally, the continuous inflow of celebrities and foreign capital has also had a positive impact on Japan**, since Warren Buffett was exposed to increase the position of Japan's five major trading companies last year, foreign capital has continued to flow into Japan**, promoting the Nikkei index to continue**.
As the Nikkei Index continues to hit new highs, domestic Nikkei ETFs are also warmly sought after by investors, with a premium of more than 9% at one point.
We believe that investors should remain vigilant against overseas hot ETF products, especially overseas ETFs with too high premiums, which will face the double harm of premiums and valuations once they are abroad.
, insufficient fundraising100 million, but the new frozen funds are exceededHundred million.
Recently, the IPO issuance results of Yun Xingyu on the Beijing Stock Exchange were released, with a total of 28020,000 investors participated in Yunxingyu's new offering, and the number of effective subscriptions reached 4348.7 billion shares, frozen funds as high as 20134.6 billion yuan, a record high, this figure is equivalent to one-third of the 647 billion yuan turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on January 10.
Since Kunbo Seiko froze funds with 84.8 billion yuan, hitting a new high on the Beijing Stock Exchange since March 2022, the scale of frozen funds has continued to rise; At the end of November last year, the frozen amount of Jike shares was 118.1 billion yuan, and now, Yun Xingyu, which plans to be listed, has frozen funds in 20134.6 billion yuan, directly breaking through the 200 billion yuan mark.
This trend shows that the enthusiasm of the Beijing Stock Exchange for new products continues to heat up, on the one hand, the Beijing Stock Exchange investor team is expanding; On the other hand, compared with the downturn in the Shanghai market, the Beijing Stock Exchange has performed well in new listings recently, and has generally received considerable gains on the first day of listing, attracting more capital attention.
In addition, since the Beijing Stock Exchange needs to freeze the subscription funds in full, this reveals that the market is not short of funds, but that there are plenty of funds, but they just don't buy **!
These phenomena suggest that some large funds have been withdrawing from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges and investing in new stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and if this situation continues, the performance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges may be even weaker.
, the snack sector opened from a new low**.
Recently, the share price of the snack sector has opened from a new low, ostensibly due to the decline in ** and the approaching end of the year, which has led to a significant increase in sales, which is a typical variety of consumption downgrade.
In fact, most branded snack companies are divided into two businesses: distribution and direct sales, in the past, in order to take care of distribution or distributor channels, ** always remained high, resulting in being "chased" by many other small brands.
Now, these head brands under unprecedented pressure, had to take the lead in lowering the **, this action has caused a lot of pressure on the channel providers, but in the face of the accusations of the channel dealers, the brand has a tough attitude, this situation was first started by Gree's "blood wash" North China distributors, and has been staged in the consumer fields such as liquor and snacks in the past two years.
At the same time, this is equivalent to some traditional business relationships involving online and offline in China, as well as the performance reservoir have been "smashed", and some business links have shifted from "mutual trust" to "mutual harm", which has only occurred in cyclical industries before, and this is one of the underlying reasons for the preference for consumer stocks in the history of A-shares.
To sum up, we believe that this round of record lows in snack stocks suggests that many industries may begin to move towards "mutual harm" and "cyclical shareholding", and after evolving into a cyclical industry, it will show another major feature - the overall income of employees is very low, because the significantly reduced gross profit margin will seriously constrain the salary ceiling of employees.
, United StatessecFirst approvalBitcoin spot onlyetf
After a long wait, the Bitcoin spot ETF was finally approved in the United States, and last night, the U.S. ** Exchange Commission (SEC) announced on its official website that the agency approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs for the first time and authorized these 11 ETFs to start listing and trading on January 11, local time.
The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF means that investors can trade Bitcoin as if they were trading or trading without having to trade on a riskier digital currency platform.
The application process for Bitcoin spot ETFs was quite tortuous, and the market once thought that the likelihood of approval was not high, until BlackRock joined the application ranks, and the market sentiment quickly heated up, which affected Bitcoin** from $17,000** in January last year to around $46,000 currently.
It is worth mentioning that the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Gensler, said that although the US SEC approved the listing and trading of certain bitcoin ETFs, it does not mean that they approve or endorse bitcoin, and he stressed that there are a lot of risks associated with bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related products, and investors should be cautious.
We believe that although the chairman of the SEC still claims not to recognize Bitcoin, with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, there will be more and more investors holding Bitcoin spot ETFs through traditional accounts, because there is a great risk in holding Bitcoin in specialized cryptocurrency trading accounts, which makes many institutional and individual investors dare not invest in Bitcoin directly.