On February 4, the official WeChat of the China Tourism Academy released the "China Outbound Tourism Development Report (2023-2024)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). According to the report, the number of outbound tourists in 2023 will exceed 87 million, and the number of outbound tourists is expected to be 1300 million people. Yang Jinsong, director of the International Research Institute of the China Tourism Academy, pointed out that in the future, popular outbound travel destinations will still be concentrated in short-distance areas, and the trend of younger tourists is obvious. On the whole, in 2024, the recovery process of the outbound tourism chain will be accelerated, and the reshaping of the chain and the market will be long-term.
It is expected to recover more than eighty percent in 2019.
The report mentioned that since the implementation of the "Category B and B Management" initiative in China at the beginning of 2023, China's outbound tourism market has begun to restart, and the number of outbound tourists in 2023 will exceed 87 million. With the strengthening of China's tourism market momentum and residents' willingness to travel abroad, the pace of international tourism recovery in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to accelerate significantly, and the number of outbound tourists in 2024 will be 13 billion people.
According to the "Basic Situation of the Tourism Market in 2019" previously released by the China Tourism Academy, the number of outbound tourists of Chinese citizens reached 1 in 20195.5 billion people. Based on this calculation, outbound travel in 2023 will basically recover to nearly 60% of 2019, and 2024 is expected to recover more than 80% of 2019.
The report also pointed out that the main tone of the development of China's outbound tourism in 2024 is positive and optimistic.
Yang Jinsong said that the concept of the world tourism community has clarified the development direction and focus of outbound tourism, and the long-term positive fundamentals of the macroeconomy and the continuous growth of income levels have ensured the further development of outbound tourism. In addition, the travel habits that have been formed have also provided solid support for the development of outbound tourism, and the orderly resumption of international passenger flights and the continuous recovery and optimization of visa services have also provided a better environment for the development of outbound tourism, and the recovery process of the outbound tourism chain will be faster and faster.
* Chain and market reshaping shows a long-term nature.
While the positive factors are boosting the development of outbound tourism, the obstacles are also obvious, including the first-chain problems faced by market players, and its recovery will still take time to be fundamentally alleviated.
In an interview with a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, Yang Jinsong emphasized that the repair of the first chain is not a simple copy of the past situation, but a repair to meet the needs of the current tourism market. This means that there is always something new. Whether it is the resumption of flights in large traffic or local tourism services, all aspects of outbound travel are in the process of reshaping and need to be supported by the market. Therefore, market players should have sufficient time to understand and listen to feedback. And the run-in between market players is also established from scratch. **It also takes time for the upstream and downstream entities to cooperate and communicate with each other.
In Yang Jinsong's view, the problem of the first chain is a problem in the development of outbound tourism, and it will inevitably be solved in the development. Although the reshaping of the ** chain and market is long-term, the easing trend in 2024 will also be more obvious.
For tourism companies and other market players, what needs to be paid more attention in 2024 is the changes in tourists and destinations after the epidemic. After the epidemic, the uncertainty of the outbound travel market is very prominent, and the situation of the previous investment and the gains must have changed, so market players must always remain cautious and anticipate risks, and survive the fittest in the era of tourism recovery.
The Asian region will remain hot.
For the situation of outbound destinations in 2023, the report points out that tourists' willingness to travel is more diversified, and emerging tourist destinations are gradually entering the field of vision of tourists.
More than a quarter of the respondents to the China Tourism Academy are willing to travel to Europe and the United States, followed by Southeast Asia, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. In terms of countries or regions, the top destinations are Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Since 2023, the outbound choices of Chinese tourists have become more diversified, with Europe, North America, Africa and other countries and regions increasing, and Asian countries and regions still ranking first.
Yang Jinsong judged that in 2024, short-haul areas represented by Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Hong Kong and Macao will still be popular destinations for outbound travel. He analyzed that for Chinese tourists, the uncertainty and cost of short-haul regional destinations are relatively low. In the long-haul market, Europe, North America and ANZ, as well as some niche destinations, also have the opportunity to become popular outbound destinations.
This can also be glimpsed in the Spring Festival data. According to the big data of air travel, as of January 29, the top 10 popular outbound destinations during the 2024 Spring Festival holiday are Hong Kong, Bangkok, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo, Osaka, Macau, Macau, Australia, Taipei, and Phuket.
Zhang Xiaolong, head of the rental car market, told Beijing Business Daily that during the Spring Festival, car rental orders in Malaysia, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Oman and Japan hit a three-year high.
Yang Jinsong also mentioned that the performance of the destinations of the "Belt and Road" countries in 2024 will be relatively bright. With the closer cooperation between China and the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative, and the further improvement of transportation conditions and infrastructure, Chinese tourists will have more knowledge and interest in these countries. For example, the opening of the Kunwan Railway between China and Laos has provided good conditions for tourism exchanges between China and Laos.
According to Qunar data, flights to Belt and Road countries have been increasing, driving an increase in outbound travel bookings to these destinations. Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt all saw searches more than double compared to December, with the UAE and Egypt among the top 20 hotels in advance booking. Zhang Xiaolong said that the car rental orders in the United Arab Emirates and Egypt both increased by more than 270% month-on-month, becoming a dark horse for outbound travel during the Spring Festival.
Pay attention to market segments such as "silver-haired people".
The report also analyses the composition of Chinese outbound tourists. In 2023, highly educated, younger tourists will become the mainstream. Young and middle-aged tourists are the majority, and the proportion of people aged 22-41 is as high as 828%。
Yang Jinsong agreed with the view that "the trend of younger tourists is more obvious", and young tourists have always been an important driving force to promote tourism development, and their needs and preferences also determine the face of tourism development.
Yang Jinsong also believes that in addition to the young main force, market players cannot ignore the needs of "silver-haired" and other customer segments. Tourists over the age of 55 account for 10% of the overall travel ratio, which has remained relatively stable.
In fact, Yang Jinsong pointed out that the "silver-haired" customer group has a stronger ability to pay than young tourists, although the proportion is relatively small, but the absolute scale is relatively large, if the market players can seize such a market segment, according to the consumption habits of the customer group and travel characteristics to divide the market specifically, can also get a lot of benefits.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Guan Zichen Niu Qingyan.