As long as three conditions are met, the decisive factor in winning the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is population, and these three conditions are that NATO will not send troops, the performance gap between Russia and Ukraine is not large, and the will of the Russian and Ukrainian leaders to persist in fighting will not waver.
Judging from the current situation, NATO has not yet sent troops to Ukraine, and Western aid to Ukraine is still mainly artillery and combat vehicles, and has not yet provided F-35 and Aegis ships, and Putin and Zelensky have vowed to continue the war. If the current situation remains unchanged, in the end Ukraine, whose population is much smaller than that of Russia, will eventually be defeated no matter how it struggles.
However, a set of data released by Zelensky recently has given rise to new opinions. On February 25, according to the news released by CCTV News, Zelensky said at a press conference that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there have been 310,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed. Zelensky also said that the ratio of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers killed to wounded was 1:5.
The pre-war population of Ukraine was about 40 million people, and Russia was about 1400 million people, the ratio of Ukrainian-Russian population is 1:35。Zelensky said that the ratio of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers to casualties is 1:5, which means that Russia's demographic advantage has been lost.
However, then a problem arises, according to Zelensky's data on the proportion of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers killed and wounded, the number of Russian casualties should be 1550,000 people, this data does not match the data previously released by the Ukrainian side.
On February 8 this year, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine released data on the results of the battle, and the Ukrainian army has annihilated a total of 392,380 Russian troops, destroyed 6,383 Russian tanks, and 11,899 armored vehicles. According to the data of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Russian army died nearly 400,000 people, but according to Zelensky's data, the number of Russian army deaths is not so much. There is a big gap in the data, which can only show that one side is lying.
At the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian army's armored cluster was attacked by the Ukrainian army's portable anti-tank missiles, and a large number of Russian tank armored vehicles were scattered on the roads in the suburbs of Kyiv, and the losses suffered by the Russian army were indeed very large. With the influx of Western military aid, the Ukrainian army has obtained various artillery pieces such as the "Hippocampus" rocket launcher with very high accuracy, and the Russian army has responded in a hurry and in a disorderly manner, unable to effectively intercept incoming rockets. However, as the battle continued, the Russian army gradually figured out a set of countermeasures, and successfully intercepted the rockets launched by the "Hippocampus" many times, and the losses suffered by the Russian army were reduced.
Since 2014, the Ukrainian side has built strong fortifications and fortresses in the eastern part of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army can rely on these fortresses to effectively resist the Russian army and reduce its own **. However, the Russian army learned a lesson in the process of advancing, throwing a large number of heavy aerial bombs every day for indiscriminate bombardment, and then using rocket artillery and heavy artillery to bombard, and finally sent infantry to carry out a surprise attack, which minimized ** as much as possible.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine has carried out more than a dozen rounds of conscription, if only 310,000 people, Ukraine does not need to mobilize, relying on the pre-war Ukrainian army can continue to resist the Russian attack. The constant mobilization of the Ukrainian army can only show that the losses suffered by the front line are very large, and the number of losses is unlikely to be 310 thousand.
Zelensky's release of the data on the deaths of the Ukrainian army may be more based on political data than facts. Zelenskyy is trying to revive the confidence of the Ukrainian army and the West, and to make Russia understand that the Ukrainian population is not facing collapse. If Russia continues to fight, its losses will be greater and greater.
Wen Yu Tsai).