Fast forward to almost 4 years since I last wrote a similar article, and it's gratifying to look back at the scene, 95% of which met expectations. In addition to the aviation giant Boeing did not take off, the 19-20 article mentioned, Bilibili ($19), BTC (3800), Tiger $3, PDD ($19) reached the expected 5-10 times in 2 years, and the follow-up $ach, UOS, $near, $algo also gave 10-80X a bigger surprise.
However, individuals also hope to refine their own judgment in the continuous self-reflection and summary, because compared with readers who read the article directly, as a participant who sees the ocean of information, sometimes interferes with their initial judgment due to various off-site factors.
We like to put forward ideas a period of time in advance, at a relatively low position or at a relatively high position, so that time can be slowly verified in silence. Real-time views are often the most attractive, but they are also the most in the crisis of being held at all times, and they often pay more energy and health, and many people are also experiencing health warnings, hoping that everyone can maintain a healthy and happy body and mind in 2024. I prefer to find the beginning and the end, and the middle way is to trust the driver and the natural development.
Closer to home, it's been more than two and a half years since the last similar article, and I'm going to write about a few of the targets and core starting points that may be underestimated in my personal shallow perception:
Introduction to the Basics:
BTC was once an anti-inflation product of the 2008 financial tsunami, and has gone through nearly 16 years since its birth in January 2009.
Nowadays, BTC's own development attributes have further expanded its potential large-scale application scenarios for development protocols such as stacks, rgb, etc. And my ultimate expectation for the general direction of BTC is actually very simple, and the valuation of the role of the new e-gold in the next few decades is already very good. If we add to this the practical application of ecology that may explode further, it may gradually derive into one of the dominant assets for the rest of this century.
Core Boot Key:
Halving in 2024 with a reward of 3125, the amount of inflation in one year is: 52560x3125=164,250 pieces, about 0782% 。And 0The inflation rate of around 78% is already lower than the annual inflation rate in most developed countries.
1.The U.S. SEC is a fast track for ETFs to enter the industry through the next round of water storage funds.
2.Grayscale's swap and MGOT selling pressure passed.
3.Traditional financial risks triggered by BTC-holding companies forced to savior behavior and other selling pressures.
Expected Valuation:$200,000 mc: 4.$2 trillion, as the beginning of a new world, fully rolled out application scenarios.
Reminder: This is an important reminder hereThe long-term expected valuation does not mean that the average trend may rise all the way from the current price point to the left and right, but it is possible to experience violent large-scale fluctuations in the short term, and you must remember not to use high leverage to play long-term feelings. It's also written here as a reminder.
Introduction to the Basics:
IME Messenger is a special version of Telegram, which integrates multi-chain wallets and other functions, which can directly connect Telegram friends with multi-chain assets such as BTC, ETH, *AX, BNB, Polygon, Mantle, **AX and so on. Added features such as Binance Pay, Twitter, TG Chat Direct, Google Translate, etc., and optimized the overall layout and ease of use of Telegram.
Telegram accounts and chat logs can also be used directly in the IME version of Telegram without the need for a new account. Similarly, the chat history in the IME version is automatically synced in the original Telegram version, making it easy to switch at any time. The IME version itself is more like a festering device that integrates the Web3 world into the TG ecosystem, and TON's role is biased towards the chain ecology.
As the inheritance of the original public chain project of TG, TON brings more development possibilities and diversification to the development of Telegram's localized ecosystem.
Core Logic:
1.The number of users of the IME version has increased from 200W users to 1000W users in 3 years, an increase of 500%, and the friendly relationship with the founding team of Telegram has made Telegram's 700 million users seamless at any time. IME's multi-chain integration function can help project parties integrate into the Telegram ecosystem more quickly. Currently, Lime's FDV is only fluctuating between 5m and 10m, which is well below the valuation of many primary market projects.
2.As the underlying public chain of TG, TON is at the forefront of the market in terms of operation level and market promotion level, and Telegram users can use it directly in the original version of TG, which reduces the cost of teaching, although it cannot be multi-chain, and Wallet is a single-chain wallet of the dialog version, but based on TON's own imagination, TON's FDV has exceeded 10 billion US dollars, which shows the market's expectations for Telegram.
The key to starting:
ime lime：
1.Due to the large number of hard-core technical personnel in Russia and Ukraine, it is necessary for the core operation PR party to join in to enhance the self-marketing ability of the project.
2.Further optimized: TG group members can use the red envelope function at will to send various tokens to group members as rewards.
3.More features to optimize TG are used.
4.Further support and policies for blockchain applications in Russia.
ton：
1.The SEC has further relaxed its regulatory stance on the official Telegram Ton.
2.Collaboration and output of on-chain SocialFi killer-level projects.
3.The number of GameFi with TG as the entrance has been further increased.
Expected Valuation:
Lime: Now MC FDV: $57M expected FDV: $3b-$5b
Ton: Current MC FDV: $10B USD, Expected FDV: $60B
Introduction to the Basics:
Conflux is a Turing Award winner team, and Tsinghua Yao Ban serves as a technical consultant and the bottom layer of the Layer1 public chain supported by the underlying algorithms, building a public chain for long-term development platforms for infrastructure such as dapps, e-commerce, and Web 3 and the metaverse. The tree graph consensus mechanism, which combines proof-of-work (PoW) and proof-of-stake (PoS) algorithms, is also one of the three projects that I personally believe are the most effective among purely domestic projects.
Core Logic:
Conflux's unique treegraph consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, and the technology is technology-driven team, and the smoothness and convenience of use are similar to those of today's high-valuation blockchain projects such as SOL, ETH, etc. It is faster to integrate with the development speed of mainstream Web3, and it only needs to wait for further opening up to use it and become more active, and there will be greater potential. The popularity of the game will also gradually go through the CFX.
The key to starting:
1.Chinese mainland further supports and liberalizes the application of blockchain public chain and the metaverse.
2.Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan are further popularized as public chain pioneer pilots.
3.With CITIC, Xiaohongshu and other official cooperation, the traditional capital selling pressure has completely disappeared.
4.The development of Conflux itself has gradually matured and the official support for BTC L2 has been smoothly supported
Expected Valuation:
CFX now MC FDV: $0Volatility around 9b, expected FDV: $36b-$80b
Introduction to the Basics:
* RWA+DeFi projects, in which RWA has realized application cooperation with singers, investors can use OPUL to participate in the purchase of part of the copyright to earn the revenue share of subsequent singers. The new feature, Opulous Oloan, creates a unique bridge with RWA in the industry. Fund ** people by staking USDC in the pool and earn extra yield on the staked USDC.
Ovault is a unique staking pool on the Opulous platform that allows you to stake USDC to access a diverse library. This library is handpicked by Opulous' experts and contains songs that are popular and perform well.
By participating in ovault, you can enjoy the ** library and earn rewards. It's also a way to participate in the industry and profit from staking.
Core Logic:
The core resources behind the company are relatively rich, and Dittos is also the first cooperative company of Boss Huang. Opulous is still in a relatively leading position for the rhythm of the market as a whole, and it is one of the more playable project parties on the Algorand and ARB chains. The selling pressure of private placements has been fully released.
The key to starting:
* The further popularity of the app, as well as the actual income generated by high-income artists, have seen a wave.
Expected Valuation:
OPUL now MC FDV: fluctuates around $50m-100m, expected FDV: $10b-$30b
Introduction to the Basics:
* Creation and live broadcast platform, the second yuan holy land** platform, the platform where young purchasing power is concentrated, and a bunch of companies have invested in poor financial reports in recent years. So the stock price has changed from a new high to a fast break, don't say it, cheers.
Core Logic:
At the moment, it is the only platform in China that looks like it can compete with YouTube
Games may be able to catch up with the era of Web3 domain entry
User stickiness is very high, but consumer rights are currently slightly limited to dramas
The key to starting:
1.Encourage more original and creative education**, most Chinese **are summarized** now**, and there are still many fewer original analogies than youtube. If you can activate this wasteland, it will be a huge amount of income for the small broken station**, many people are willing to pay for high-quality knowledge, but they need to be more strictly managed to avoid the situation where bad money drives out good money.
2.The investment in the first two years began to gradually generate exit returns.
3.Revise the business allocation, the current live broadcast business and game business, and ** are a bit strange mixed together.
Expected Valuation:
BILI is now valued: $38B MC FDV , expected valuation 5 years : 50-100b
Introduction to the Basics:
The core class Alt-L1 is the underlying architecture of the basic public chain, in which **AX and Polygon are more like the role of Ethereum's sidechain, and Sol near Algo is its own underlying architecture + compatible with EVM+BTC virtual machine or a separate project to increase compatibility with Ethereum. Since each public chain has its own unique ecology, the public chain ecology in 2024 is more suitable for each chain to be taken out separately to make a large series.
Core Logic:
Although there has been some debate about the underlying security of SOL, there is no doubt that Solana is currently the largest ecosystem outside of Ethereum, and even occupied the top spot for a time. However, with the opening of the Ethereum nesting doll series, the ecology of Ether may also bring more ways to play. *ax and sol, matic belong to the perfect will play the rhythm of the market, near is also very good in a convenient average, algo market play the most dish, but the technical strength of the team and cooperation is the highest.
Other L1 initiatives are also advancing in a similar way, and now they are all rolling up with each other, and the public chain ecology has finally restarted some vitality after 2 years of boring.
The key to starting:
After the macro black swan and thunder are completely cleaned, the center of the new era further moves to the fields of AI, blockchain and informatization, and the desire for reservoir and capital exploration further increases. LSD, Restaking, Rollup and other new DeFi gameplay further infiltrated the major ecosystems and rolled up a new rainbow (value + bubble).
Expected Valuation:
future mc fdv:
*ax: 150b
sol: 300b
ALGO: 60b-150b (300b--- if Team optimized, and specified by US policy).
near: 50b-100b
MATIC: 80b-100b (250b--- if specified by Indian policy).
Introduction to the Basics:
Very young brokers, the trading experience is very good, the data provision and chart UI are very good, and the data and financial reports and other information are very sufficient.
Core Logic:
The valuation is low, the virtual license is approved, and if it supports USDC and other compliant token deposits, it may greatly increase the transaction volume and its own financial income.
The key to starting:
1.Further relaxation of domestic policies and support for compliant KYC.
2.The overall recovery and storage of financial markets.
Expected Valuation:
Now fdv, 058b, expected FDV: 10-20 b
Introduction to the Basics:
Air Sensor projects that monitor air quality in the environment are green projects that receive token rewards by setting up different sensor nodes to transmit air quality data in real time.
Core Logic:
1.High valuations and low liquidity in the early stages, with the advent of a bear market and the gradual impact of inflation, are the problems that all projects with low liquidity in the early stages are prone to experience.
The key to starting:
The global focus on environmental infrastructure has increased, and eco-like projects have entered the focus of discussion in the blockchain field.
Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV: 2M, Expected FDV: 20M-200M
Introduction to the Basics:
Wish is an American e-commerce platform founded in 2010 by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang. Wish's parent company is ContextLogic Inc, headquartered in San Francisco, USA. The platform mainly sells cheap household goods, clothing, jewelry, electronic products and toys, etc.
Core Logic:
In 2020, Goldman Sachs and other consortia overestimated expectations, resulting in a flat push all the way to the margin of delisting risk. ** Near the low, and the recent market action and activity have begun to recover, promote the plus.
The key to starting:
1.For the further dependence on **, especially the expectation of consumers who are downgraded for cheap**.
2.If there is a new large institution entering the acquisition process.
3.Financial reports and business recovery.
Expected Valuation:
Now mc fdv: 01b, expected mc fdv: 2b-10b
Introduction to the Basics:
W**es Enterprise is an enterprise-grade blockchain platform for building fault-tolerant digital infrastructure. As a hybrid solution, the W**es Enterprise mainnet brings together enterprises, service providers, and decentralized applications in a trustless environment, leveraging the benefits of a public permissioned blockchain to cover a wide range of business use cases. Sidechains are used to build private or hybrid infrastructure, storing metadata on mainnet. The platform is powered by the W**es Enterprise System Token ($west), which is the native utility token for all network operations.
Core Logic:
Enterprise-level public-private chain hybrid blockchain protocols may be more easily accepted by traditional enterprises.
The key to starting:
1.Russia's further support for blockchain technology has been responded to by Russia's traditional oligarchs and consortia.
2.The further participation of traditional enterprises is popular.
Expected Valuation:
Current MC FDV: 2-5m fluctuation, expected MC FDV: 2b-5b (20-50b - if designated by Russia).
This article analyzes the long-term potential value of some projects, some of which have survived the big waves, and some of which have excellent fundamentals and concepts, but have poor market operation ability and need Bole, so there is potential, but it does not mean that it will definitely meet expectations, and may also suffer unexpected blows.
The entire world economy is not out of the quagmire at present, and it can even be said that it is just like a half-broken ice, and the prosperity on the surface cannot hide that the core loopholes in the bones have not been solved. Some abscesses and tumors have not yet been punctured and re-treated, so at this time, even if the future is very bright for AI and blockchain, as an individual or institution, it is best to improve some self-principle settings.
For emerging public chains such as SEI, TIA and L2, as well as restaking, LSD and other diversified projects such as Altlayer, Manta, Dymension, Edenlayer, Zeta, etc., the early valuation is actually more difficult to estimate due to the general extension of the lock-up time of this round of private capital. It is a test of the project party's own responsible attitude and habits, because most of the tokens are still in the hands of the project party, if ** will be smashed in the early stage, then the new project may also have a set of 2 years. However, it is also possible that the direct valuation of the TIA will become Lafite '82, and it will be difficult to estimate it quickly in the future.
For the development of the blockchain industry, I personally think that the next few years will be relatively bright, but I still have to repeat the warning at the beginning of the article: the long-term expected valuation does not mean that it will go all the way from the current price to the left and right, and it is possible to experience violent large-scale fluctuations in a short period of time, for example, it is like a sudden moment, BTC returns to 1K US dollars in 3 days, and then returns to 4W, although the probability is extremely low, but if you can still stay healthy in this situation**, then there is no problem.
Be sure not to play long-term relationships with high leverage. Try to touch contracts as little or no as possible, unless you are for fun and you have enough self-discipline to do so, dyor is the most important way to maintain a healthy investment in the long run.
It's not easy to create, thank you for reading, you want to exchange technology together, and friends who want to lay out high-quality currencies can like + follow