In the early morning of the 10th, Beijing time, the U.S. market hit a new high on Friday, with the S&P 500 index breaking through 5,000 points and the Nasdaq approaching 16,000 points intraday. The market focus is on U.S. earnings reports and the Fed's monetary policy outlook, with many Feds** expressing their expectations for inflation data before further rate cuts.
Specifically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 54 percent on Friday64 points, a decrease of 014%, * on 3867169 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index is **19695 points, an increase of 125% at 1599066 points. S&P 500 Index**2870 points, an increase of 057%, fixed at 502661 points. In intraday trading on Friday, the Nasdaq briefly approached 16,000 points, just one step away from its all-time high in November 2021.
In the past 15 weeks, 14 of the U.S. markets have achieved a strong trend. This continued momentum has triggered the market's close attention to the US stock earnings report and the Fed's monetary policy.
A number of market analysts expressed their views on the strong performance of the U.S. market. Dana D., Chief Investment Officer at EnvestNet'"There are constant positive signals from the economy and the market has responded positively," Auria said. If this trend continues, we could have a soft landing for the economy. Adam Turnquist, technical strategist at LPL Financial, said: "The S&P 500 stands above the key psychological threshold of 5,000 points, which will undoubtedly further stimulate the market's investment enthusiasm." Integer thresholds tend to provide support for the market, but they can also form psychological resistance. ”
Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management**: We expect a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with the S&P 500 holding around that level until the end of the year. But she added: "Recent economic data suggests sustained economic growth, moderate inflation, and the potential for further monetary easing, so we expect the S&P 500 to potentially move further to around 5,300 this year." ”
However, not all analysts are optimistic about the future of the US market. Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, said: "While the S&P 500 breaking above 5,000 is a positive sign, it could be a stage in the market in the long run. I'm worried that the market may have been too exhausted and will need some time to recuperate. ”
Recently, strong earnings reports and the continued performance of large tech stocks have provided support for the U.S. market. However, since the fourth quarter of 2023, the market leader has been overly concentrated, which has raised concerns among investors that a market width that is too narrow could hinder sustainability.
Michael Hartnett, an analyst at Bank of America, warned that the fast move that drove the U.S. to new all-time highs could be approaching some selling signals. In a note, he noted that their custom bull/bear indicator had risen to 68。If the indicator continues to rise and surpasses 8, it will indicate that the bullish trend has been overdone and may trigger a sell signal. Although Hartnett was pessimistic about ** last year, his ** did not come true.
Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, believes that the range of U.S. stock leaders is too narrow, which should be attributed to the verbal pressure of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues to cut interest rates in March. This crackdown has increased the market's uncertainty about the prospect of interest rate cuts, which has affected investors' investment decisions.
Richmond Fed President Barkin reiterated on Thursday that the Fed will be patient before cutting interest rates. Some of the latest data released this week also showed the resilience of the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than market expectations, indicating that the labor market remains strong. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Friday that policymakers must ensure that inflation returns to the central bank's 2% target and always adhere to that principle. "We need to make sure that inflation comes back down to 2 percent," he said. That's what we're focused on. He also said that the U.S. economy is moving towards a strong pre-pandemic state and that "we just need to stay the course." If you see a spike in inflation or something like that, it's going to be very disruptive, and we want to avoid that as much as possible.
On Friday's economic data front, according to revised data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Friday, consumers are paying even slower than initially reported. According to the data, the revised annualized growth rate of core CPI in the fourth quarter of the United States remained at 33% unchanged; The month-on-month increase in CPI in December increased from 03% revised down to 02%。This result was broadly in line with market expectations. Analysts generally believe that this CPI revision will not have much impact on the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
Overall, despite the recent strong performance of the U.S. market, investors still need to be wary of potential risks. Factors such as the narrow market width, inflation uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments may have an impact on the future direction of the market. Therefore, investors need to remain cautious and pay close attention to market dynamics to make informed investment decisions.