What does it mean to continuously measure the bottom?

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-02-01

On January 10, the market still failed to close out of the red plate after all, and finally returned to the trend of shrinkage adjustment.

As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 054%, intraday 2870A new recent low of 42 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 055%, the ChiNext index fell 043%。

In terms of sectors, leisure food led the rise, and traditional tracks such as photovoltaics, energy storage, lithium batteries, liquor, and medical beauty rebounded significantly; Concepts such as cloud gaming, skit concepts, and data rights confirmation were among the top decliners.

* In terms of returning to the pattern of falling more and rising less, there were more than 3,800 stocks in the two cities, and only 647 billion yuan were traded in the two cities throughout the day, which shrank again from Tuesday.

Northbound funds have a net ** for the second consecutive trading day, but the net ** is small, only 6900 million yuan, of which the Shanghai Stock Connect net **25.7 billion yuan, Shenzhen Stock Connect net **43.3 billion yuan.

First, let's sort out how the index works.

In early trading today, the index behaved in the same way as on Tuesday, but weaker than yesterday. After opening low, the Shanghai Composite Index fell all the way, falling to a recent low of 2870 points, and then unfolded**, and once floated red. The performance of the ChiNext index was even stronger, falling by more than 1% in the morning, and then backhanding by more than 1%, giving people a feeling of bottoming.

However, "handsome for no more than three seconds"! Before the morning, the indices turned green again, and there was no intention of seeing the slightest hint of ** throughout the afternoon. In the end, ** ended in failure again.

Judging from the performance of the index in the past two days, the following points can be summarized:

First, the Shanghai Composite Index fell back below 2900 points, and after each morning killing, it can be pulled back by the "invisible hand", indicating that the point has been at an absolute low level, and in the short term, there is not much room for continued falling.

Second, although the stock index can be pulled back after the fall, the strength of the market is very weak on Tuesday, and it is even weaker on Wednesday, the root cause is the lack of confidence, and the trading volume is seriously sluggish, resulting in the market showing a narrow range of shrinkage ** trend, which is a typical grinding bottom trend, when can grind out the bottom, it needs a significant volume. Either the volume is large-scale, not broken, or the volume is fast**, and the real "short-selling" is ushered in.

Third, after today's market closes in the negative, it is necessary to re-examine Tuesday's small white candlestick. Previously, we judged that if Wednesday can close the positive line again, then it is likely to be a signal of bottoming. But if the negative line is closed again, then Tuesday's small white line belongs to the ** relay, and the market may be adjusted in the future.

Fourth, when will we really see the bottom? Looking back at the last time an important bottom was established, on October 31, 2022, when the Shanghai Composite Index established a bottom at 2885 points.

At that time, in late October 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index shrank at 3,000 points, and although there was a "double bottom" feature, the establishment of the real bottom was the two-day break on October 28 and 29. Subsequently, on November 1, the volume closed out of the long yang line, and then continued to attack, continuously recovering 2900 points and 3000 points of two important integer levels, establishing the advent of the phase.

Next, let's take a look at the hot sectors of today's market.

Today's best performer is the daily chemical industry, that is, the medical beauty sector that was a smash hit in the past two years. In the sector, the blonde rabbi and Yuexin Health rose by 83%, Aimeike, Bloomage Biotechnology, and Langzi shares rose more than 5%.

The medical aesthetic sector peaked in mid-2021, and then after more than two years of continuous adjustment, the decline has been large. Medical cosmetology stocks had a collective ** on December 28 last year, when Aimeike's daily limit, and in the past three trading days, the medical cosmetology sector has risen in volume, and I feel that there are still funds in **.

On the news side, on January 5, Aimeike announced last year's performance forecast, and it is expected that last year's net profit will be 1$8.1 billion 1900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43% 50%.

Secondly, large consumption areas such as food, retail, and liquor are also performing well today. For example, McQuor, Huifa Food, BESTORE, Yanjin Shop, Black Sesame, Gui Faxiang, Anjing Food, etc., are all representatives of the agricultural and sideline food sector.

In addition, liquor stocks also strengthened again, with second- and third-tier liquor stocks such as Shede Liquor, Jiuguijiu, Huangtai Liquor, and Kouzijiao leading the gains, while Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu rose to a lesser extent.

The strength of food and liquor stocks is mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the increase in demand in the consumer field ushered in the peak season. In addition, the news is also supported, the National Business Work Conference emphasized that in 2024, it is necessary to promote the continuous expansion of consumption and improve the market and circulation system; With the "Consumption Promotion Year" as the main line, we will do a good job in various consumption promotion activities.

The third is the photovoltaic inverter sector, Deye shares have a strong limit, and energy storage concepts such as Jinlang Technology, GoodWe, and Yuneng Technology have strong performance.

For this sector, talking too much about fundamental factors can only give yourself confidence and be able to continue, the root cause is still falling too much, and the main capital is **. In fact, several sectors such as liquor, lithium batteries, and medical beauty are also similar.

It remains to be seen whether these sectors can turn from short-term hot spots to sustainable ones. Recently, what really has a continuous money-making effect is actually in high-dividend sectors such as coal and electricity.

Finally, take a look at the inflow and outflow of northbound funds, which has a very typical reference significance in the past two days.

This morning, the northbound funds were net sellers, because they bought a wave at the end of yesterday, the index was red, and the profits were cashed out early this morning.

Then the index hit a new low, and the northbound funds quickly made up for it, not asking how much they could make, but only seeking "short-term and fast", so as soon as the index turned red, it was gradually sold. At the end of today's market, although the index did not improve much, the northbound funds quietly bought it back, and the amount was not large, totaling less than 700 million. This kind of operation of "smart funds" is also likely to indicate that they are not pessimistic about the market outlook.

Investments are risky, and independent judgment is importantThis article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading, and you enter the market at your own risk. Cover***Visual China-VCG41155285322 Every reporter Zeng Zijian Every editor Peng Shuiping

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