**:Times.
Every year on Chinese New Year's Eve, wine can be described as the "finishing touch" on the dinner table of many families on Chinese New Year's Eve. But on the eve of the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon, the liquor market seems to be a little not very prosperous.
*The Times reporter recently visited major supermarkets, tobacco and liquor firms, and interviewed a number of liquor distributors and found that except for high-end liquor such as Moutai, which is still outstanding, the sales of other liquors are mediocre, and even declined to varying degrees. Major wine companies have recently launched a Spring Festival promotion offensive, and the forms are endless. Industry insiders believe that destocking is still the main task of major liquor companies in 2024, and there may be an inflection point in the second quarter of the liquor consumption boom.
Supermarkets: Before the Spring Festival, the major liquors started a ** war.
The Spring Festival is approaching, but the liquor market is showing signs of not being prosperous in the peak season, **Times reporters visited a number of large supermarkets and found that Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shuijingfang, Langjiu, Shede Liquor, Xifeng Liquor, Xijiu, Jinsha Liquor and other liquor brands are reducing prices or holding ** activities on the eve of the Spring Festival, and the activities will last until late February.
In Walmart supermarket, the reporter saw that the original price of the eighth generation of Wuliangye was 1499 yuan, and the price was reduced by 400 yuan recently, and the price of each bottle was 1099 yuan after discount. The discount of the seventh generation of Wuliangye is also relatively large, with a recent price reduction of 380 yuan, and the price of each bottle after the discount is 1119 yuan.
The discount of Wuliangye in the supermarket is larger. Photo by Wang Jun).
Other liquor brands have also given discounts to varying degrees to attract consumers' attention. For example, in the supermarket, the price of 53 degrees classic liquor is 598 yuan, but you can buy one get one free, which is equivalent to 299 yuan per bottle. The price of Luzhou Laojiao's high-quality head song is 338 yuan, and the price of each bottle is 298 yuan after discount.
Discounts on all kinds of liquor brands. Photo by Wang Jun).
In RT-Mart supermarket, the reporter also saw that many well-known brands such as Wuliangye and Xijiu carried out ** activities, and the activities of wine companies such as Xifeng Liquor and Jinsha Liquor were more intensive, and consumers bought 53 degrees Jinsha Ancient Sauce and 52 degrees Xifeng Liquor Year Sealed Wine, plus 1 yuan to get one more bottle.
We are the sales representative sent by the factory, and before the Spring Festival this year, our brand of liquor is relatively strong, the purpose is to let everyone drink affordable and high-quality liquor. A sales representative of RT-Mart told a reporter from the ** Times.
Regarding the company's inventory problem raised by the reporter, the sales representative said, "There is no inventory problem in well-known wine companies, and wine companies will have production plans every year, and there is no overflow of production." The sales representative also revealed to reporters that some small and medium-sized liquor companies may have carried out frantic expansion during the epidemic to try to occupy more market share of liquor, (in this way) there will be a problem of greater inventory pressure.
As for the "buy one get one free" or "add one yuan get one free" activities launched by liquor brands such as Xijiu, Xifeng Liquor and Jinsha Liquor, another sales representative of a liquor company said that similar activities launched by relevant liquor companies are mainly for drainage, and the current competition between liquor brands is greater, and liquor companies have to sacrifice some products to attract consumer attention.
Recently, the demand for wedding banquets, annual meetings and other gatherings and banquet scenes has continued to be released, but the overall consumption of liquor is not as hot as last year. According to the cheese research, as the Spring Festival approaches, the overall sales of liquor are in a benign state, but there are certain differences in the specific conditions of each region.
The national finance ** believes that the overall sales of liquor during the Spring Festival this year will still be stable, but there are also more differentiation in different scenarios.
Distributors: Famous wine does not worry about selling, and others have declined to varying degrees.
First-line tobacco and liquor dealers and distributors can feel the "chill" of the recent liquor market the most. "Since January, our liquor sales have fallen by nearly 20%, even Wuliangye, Guojiao, and Xijiu are not very easy to sell. Miss Wang, a liquor distributor in Bao'an, Shenzhen, told reporters that the company has a number of popular liquor brand series in the market, and has two or three thousand customers in the area. She told reporters that not only is it difficult to sell recently, but the liquor market will not be easy to do in 2023, especially the liquor above 200 yuan, and consumers are more cautious. "Our salesmen went to run the trading house, and they didn't want to buy goods. ”
Zhang Ming (pseudonym), a liquor distributor located in Shangqiu City, Henan Province, felt that this wave of "cold wave" was particularly obvious after the second half of last year, "In previous years, we were busy until late during the Mid-Autumn Festival, and at that time, the liquor ** would be raised, but the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2023 will be much colder, and a few cases of wine will be sold all day. Zhang Ming told reporters that the same situation occurred in the same industry, and there were more people who walked into the commercial bank to buy cigarettes and water than to buy alcohol, and the bosses were more confused and anxious.
Dealers interviewed by reporters generally said that in addition to the head Moutai and other famous liquors, the sales of other second and third echelons of liquor have declined to varying degrees compared with previous years. "At present, brands such as Moutai and Guotai in the market are still selling well, and good vintage wines are not even available, but not very well-known circulation brands have more inventory. Ms. Kong, a liquor distributor in Shenzhen, told reporters.
In addition, there are different differentiations in different regions. For example, at the beginning of the year, drunkard liquor in Hunan Region, Hebei Region, Tangqinjin Region, Henan Region, Shandong Region, Guangdong Region, Fujian, Shanghai and Jiangxi Region successively held the "2024 Good Start Mobilization Meeting", taking the lead in the industry to start the Spring Festival Campaign; Luzhou Laojiao Heigai Shanghai Market 2024 Opening Battle Kick-off Meeting; Shede Liquor began to launch the Spring Festival market theme activity on December 1 last year, and launched an all-round peak season offensive online and offline.
The wine is not easy to sell, and the wine companies have also adjusted the best strategy in a timely manner, for example, Luzhou Laojiao has lowered the price of some product dealers; Wuliangye also said that in 2024, Wuliangye will coordinate the relationship between volume and price, and reduce the annual planned volume of dealer channels. There are also many wine companies that have launched support policies for distributors. In addition, many wine companies have launched support policies for distributors, "For some customized products and small home brands, the discounts given by manufacturers are relatively large, and the cashback amount is relatively high." Ms. Kong said.
The peak season of liquor is not prosperous, and the market terminal stores reflect mediocre sales, which may directly lead to the low willingness of terminal stores to take goods. At present, the most hesitant thing for dealers is whether to renew the payment with the manufacturer. "I made a payment to buy goods, and I was afraid that it would not be easy to sell, but I didn't renew it, and I was afraid that I wouldn't be able to maintain the relationship with the manufacturer. Miss Wang said. However, Ms. Kong said that she has not lowered her sales expectations this year and is still confident in the sales situation in 2024. The interviewed dealers generally said that they would prudently stock up reasonably according to market demand.
According to Yao Xusheng, a partner of Paipai.com Wealth Management, at present, the distribution of liquor in the circulation stage is mainly concentrated in famous liquor, whether it is strong flavor, light fragrance or sauce flavored liquor, dealers are actively destocking, with the goal of removing more than 90% of the inventory. Non-famous wines such as low-end wine and OEM wine are shifting from offline terminals to online sales, and the price for volume activities is very discounted, which makes offline channels lose their competitive advantage.
It is still necessary to continue to destock, or will the second quarter be prosperous?
In the past year, the liquor industry has experienced problems such as upside down and high inventory. Flush data shows that as of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the total inventory of 20 A-share listed liquor companies was 1,3635.4 billion yuan. The interim report previously released by the China Liquor Industry Association also showed that the top priority in 2023 is to destock. The effectiveness of destocking and the 2023 revenue report card of wine companies have attracted much attention.
Although the performance of leading wine companies in 2023 is still "soaring", some distributors admit that the more the performance of wine companies grows, the greater the pressure on them. In the face of the current situation of shrinking consumption and fierce market competition, even Kweichow Moutai has shouted "terminal is king", which shows that the liquor industry may still face great pressure in 2024.
Destocking and stabilizing the liquor industry are still the main goals of the liquor industry in 2024. Yao Xusheng told the ** Times reporter that famous wine began to take the initiative to destock last year, superimposed on the recovery of the domestic economic environment, especially the recovery of the core market, as well as the continuous strengthening of famous wine for market services, its potential in business, banquets and other consumption scenarios will be further stimulated, which is manifested in the Spring Festival sales performance gradually improved, and the inventory situation has eased. Yao Xusheng believes that market confidence in 2024 will be much greater than in 2023, especially because famous wines benefit from scale, channels and brand advantages, etc., with stronger market competitiveness and higher consumption frequency, which will have stronger market competitiveness than third- and fourth-tier brands.
According to the research of cheese**, according to the collection of "good start" in the new year, the completion progress of the leading wine companies is in line with expectations, and the growth target of the new year is relatively stable compared with the past, maintaining a steady growth expectation. However, some wine companies in the follow-up echelon showed a relatively weaker voice or more conservative growth targets in the process of payment collection in the "good start" stage.
The recent research report released by Guoxin** also pointed out that in addition to Moutai and Maotai products, second- and third-tier soy sauce wine brands will continue to focus on "promoting sales and destocking" in 2024, while continuing to enhance their own brand and customer circle cultivation capabilities. At present, due to the postponement of the Spring Festival in 2024, the liquor industry is now in the stage of "good start" payment collection in the channel, and it is expected that terminals and consumers will have obvious stocking in the first half of the Spring Festival. The research report believes that there may be an inflection point in the second quarter of 2024. In addition, in 2024, all major wine companies will appropriately relax the assessment of distributors' payment collection, so as to protect the overall price of the market and promote the orderly destocking of channels.
Editor-in-charge: Luo Xiaoxia.
Proofreading: Zhu Tianting.
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