(Data**: Zhuochuang Information).
1. Corn market
The average price of corn in the country remained stable on February 18 at 227587 yuan ton, the same as the 17th**. The price of the main contract of continuous corn was 2413 yuan ton, a slight decrease of 6 yuan ton from the 7th. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, market trading activities have decreased, and downstream enterprises are mainly focused on digesting existing inventory.
In terms of this, grassroots farmers have begun to produce grain one after another, and it is expected that corn will increase slowly. However, some areas were disturbed by cold spells and rain and snow, which slowed down the recovery rate. On the demand side, the inventory of downstream enterprises has decreased, so they mostly adopt the purchase strategy at a reasonable price to replenish the inventory. In addition, other commodities related to corn were also affected by rain and snow, which in turn had a certain impact on the purchase and sale of corn.
According to the analysis of the current market trend, it is expected that the corn market in Northeast China will maintain a trend of light purchase and sales in the short term. Some deep processing enterprises have resumed acquisition activities, which is expected to keep Northeast corn ** stable. In North China, as downstream enterprises mainly focus on digesting inventory during the holiday, the market transaction is relatively light, and it is expected that the market will gradually recover, and the corn will also remain stable. In the southern region, feed companies are also mainly digesting inventory, and the market purchase and sales have not yet been fully launched, so it is expected that corn in the southern region will remain stable in the short term.
Second, the wheat market
On February 18, the average price of domestic wheat remained stable at 275045 yuan ton, the same as the previous trading day. However, in the month-on-month and month-on-month comparisons, wheat was 345% and 1389%。
In terms of the downstream market, some factories have begun to resume production in recent days, but the specific start-up time is not uniform. Some customers of flour have placed orders or are being shipped before the holiday, which has led to some wheat products. In the face of cost pressure, manufacturers may have a price uplift mentality and pay close attention to the situation of downstream orders.
From the perspective of the fundamentals of the wheat market, the post-holiday market has shown a stable and strong operating trend. Although the festive atmosphere is still strong, the activity of grassroots purchase and sales is not high. Some manufacturers have resumed acquisition activities, but the arrival is still insufficient, so they have adopted a flexible approach to price increases to facilitate acquisitions.
In the short term, the wheat market is likely to continue its trend. This is mainly affected by factors such as the resumption of acquisitions by manufacturers and the lack of arrivals. However, the specific trend of the market needs to further observe the situation of downstream orders and the changes in the activity of grassroots purchases and sales.
3. Rice market
In the week before the Spring Festival, as the top merchants in the downstream wholesale market entered the holiday one after another, the rice purchase and sales activities gradually weakened. Most rice mills have chosen to suspend production for holidays due to lack of orders, and paddy purchasing activities have basically stopped. Although farmers and rice traders in the producing areas still hold some of their paddy stocks, most of them have suspended their sales activities due to the holidays. As a result, the rice market as a whole was trading lightly and maintained a smooth operation during the Chinese New Year.
An increase in the number of rice mills that are expected to start production next week. In the initial phase of opening, the rice mill will mainly absorb the existing paddy stocks, so the rice** is expected to remain stable.
In the week leading up to the Spring Festival, most of the rice mills in the southern producing areas had stopped working, and peasant households were gradually reducing their grain sales activities, resulting in a sluggish market buying and selling activity. Rice has a smooth transition, with a stable 1 for mid-to-late indica98-2.02 yuan between catties. It is expected that before the Lantern Festival, some farmers may still be immersed in the festive atmosphere, so their enthusiasm to sell may be limited. In the second half of the year, the downstream market for the purchase of rice will gradually start, and some rice mills may purchase rice on demand, which may drive a slight increase in the local market. However, due to the small amount of downstream stock during the first month, it is expected that the increase will be limited.
In the glutinous rice market, downstream stocking activities decreased in the week before the Spring Festival, resulting in rice mills suspending production due to lack of orders. Glutinous rice** is thus in a stalemate. Affected by the festive atmosphere, it is expected that some farmers may not be enthusiastic about selling grain before the Lantern Festival. Considering that most rice mills in the producing areas do not have much rice inventory, low-stock traders in the downstream wholesale market may stock up in moderation, which may bring room for a slight upward adjustment for local **. In the future, it is necessary to pay close attention to the shipment of glutinous rice in all links during the New Year and the recovery of downstream demand.
Fourth, the soybean market
On February 18, 2024, the average price of soybeans in the national market remained stable at 5,06297 yuan ton, the same as the previous working day's **. At present, the purchase and sales activities in the production and marketing area have ended, and the market has entered a state of closure.
In terms of **, the acquirers in the Northeast production area have begun to carry out acquisition activities one after another, and it is necessary to pay attention to their acquisitions** and purchase volume. In the southern production area, the proportion of surplus goods at the grassroots level is higher than that in the same period in previous years, so it is necessary to pay attention to the willingness of the grassroots to ship and the enthusiasm of dealers to purchase. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, dealers in production and sales areas and some downstream processing enterprises will have the best demand. Judging from the news, CBOT soybean ** continued its weak decline during the Spring Festival, which adversely affected the mentality of the domestic spot market.
Before the Spring Festival, the trading in the northeast and south production areas and sales areas has ended ahead of schedule, and the stock volume of each link is lower than that of the same period in previous years. After digestion during the Spring Festival, it is expected that dealers and downstream processing enterprises in the post-holiday sales area will have a short period of concentrated demand. The inventory of dealers in the production area before the holiday is not large, and the pace of loading may be slow in the short term, so it is expected that the market will remain stable today. At the same time, it is necessary to pay close attention to the movements of the acquirers in the northeast production area in order to keep abreast of market dynamics.