This Spring Festival, Jia Ling, who lost 100 pounds, appeared on the hot search lists of major online platforms.
Netizens are both distressed and admiring: "It's not easy to lose three or four pounds at ordinary times", "You can imagine how much Jia Ling has suffered", "Can you recommend the ** method".
* The success of Jia Ling caused such a big sensation, behind which is a huge number of people who need to lose weight.
According to the World Obesity Alliance, about 38% of the world's population had a BMI above 25 in 2020, and overweight and obesity rates continue to climb. More than 4 billion people worldwide are expected to be overweight or obese by 2035.
Domestically, according to the research report of Caitong, as of 2019, the scale of overweight and obese people over 18 years old in China has reached 19.2 billion people, and it is expected that the compliance market of ** drugs is expected to exceed 12 billion yuan in 2025.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the market size of obesity drugs is expected to exceed $54 billion by 2030, surpassing PD-1 PD-L1 to become the world's largest drug based on market demand.
At present, the ** new drug GLP-1 drugs, including semaglutide, according to JPMorgan Chase analysts**, will have annual sales of more than 100 billion US dollars by 2030, becoming a potential market of 100 billion US dollars (GLP-1 drug indications in addition to **).
The 100 billion CLP-1 drug market is currently constrained by downstream production capacity. Up to now, the "* magic needle" is still in short supply.
At present, the most popular drug is GLP-1 drugs, the most popular in the market is semaglutide injection, and the most representative is the original pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk's first injection Wegovy.
In 2023, Wegovy's global sales reached 313DKK 4.3 billion (45.5 billion$400 million).
For top students, the test score of 100 points is because the paper is only 100 points. Novo Nordisk's ** injection sells $4.5 billion a year because it can only provide so many doses to the market at full capacity.
Since May last year, Novo Nordisk has restricted the availability of low-dose drugs in the United States due to shortages.
On the whole, in the GLP-1 drug industry chain, downstream preparation manufacturers will share the largest share of the value of the industrial chain, followed by CDMO and APIs in the midstream.
In order to meet the needs of the market and superimpose the maximum value of the industrial chain, Novo Nordisk built new factories, made large-scale acquisitions, and expanded production frantically.
It was not until the end of January 2024 that Novo Nordisk said that the amount of the low-dose version of Wegovy's injection needles had more than doubled compared to previous months, which would meet the needs of more people.
But according to data released Monday by the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Drug Shortage Database, 025ml、0.5ml, 1ml and 1The 7 ml dose of wegovy is still **limited.
To this end, Novo Nordisk announced not long ago that its controlling shareholder, Novo Holdings, will acquire drug filling giant Catalent (the main supplier of Wegovy's filling work) for $16.5 billion ** (including debt).
Judging from the data released by the FDA, in addition to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro and ** drug Zepbound are also in short supply.
Eli Lilly is also accelerating its capacity expansion. Eli Lilly executives said in Tuesday's fourth-quarter earnings report** that the company achieved its goal of doubling its incretin drug production capacity by the end of 2023.
Eli Lilly executives said they will "urgently" ramp up production this year, with the most significant increase seen in the second half of the year, when the production of its saleable doses of incretin drugs (both of which are incretin drugs) will increase by at least 15 times.
Prior to this, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly had already invested billions of dollars in the construction of new factories.
Novo Nordisk said late last year that it would invest $6 billion to expand its production base in Denmark, which will last from the end of 2025 to 2029. In addition, it will spend about $2.3 billion to build a new plant in France.
Eli Lilly's facility in Triangle Park, North Carolina, began production last year. A new plant in Concord, North Carolina, will begin production as early as the end of this year and ship in 2025.
It is foreseeable that in the next two years, the global CLP-1 drug may continue to be in short supply.
The production capacity of domestic pharmaceutical companies is also accelerating.
At the end of December 2023, the Suzhou Industrial Park Management Committee announced the "Environmental Impact Report of Borui Pharmaceutical (Suzhou)** Chemical Preparation Reconstruction Project". According to the report, Borui Pharmaceutical plans to add 3500 million pieces of BGM0504 injection production capacity per year, a total of 3 production lines, the purpose of "hypoglycemia, **
Borui Pharmaceutical said on the investor interactive platform that BGM0504 injection is a dual agonist of GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide 1) and GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide) receptors independently developed by the company, which can activate the downstream pathways of GIP and GLP-1, produce biological effects such as blood sugar control, weight loss and **nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and show the potential of a variety of metabolic diseases.
In terms of APIs, according to the data of the Center for Drug Evaluation of the State Food and Drug Administration, a total of 4 domestic companies have obtained the qualification of semaglutide APIs, including Paipeptide Biotech, Jianxiang Biotech, Nuotai Biotech Biotech and Tianji Biotech.
In addition, companies such as Puluo Pharmaceutical, Puli Pharmaceutical, Taienkang, Hanyu Pharmaceutical, Sirnaomics and Aurisco are also actively developing and applying for relevant qualifications.
14 companies, including Hanyu Pharmaceutical and Kailaiying, have been filed in the United States and have the production capacity of semaglutide API industry chain.
Editor-in-charge: Peng Bo.
Proofreading: Li**.
On the occasion of the Spring Festival, the reporter of **Times E Company sent sincere blessings to everyone in the land of China.
Today's reporter: Ye Lingzhen.
Location: Hefei.