Whether the credit data can achieve a good start has always been highly concerned by the market.
On February 9, on the Chinese New Year's Eve, the People's Bank of China released the scale of social financing and financial statistics for January. According to the data, at the end of January, the stock of social financing scale was 38429 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95%, the growth rate was the same as the previous month. The January increment was 650 trillion yuan, the highest level in the same period in history, 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; Loans maintained a steady growth momentum, with 492 trillion yuan, 16.2 billion yuan higher than the same period last year.
Loan growth remained flat in January, with better-than-market expectations. An industry expert told the Financial Times. According to the data, loan support was strong in January, and the loan balance at the end of the month continued to maintain a high growth rate of more than 10%. At the same time, the new loans in January this year were basically the same as the previous year, which to a certain extent also reflects the effectiveness of financial institutions in smoothing the pace of credit disbursement. Steady growth in loans at the beginning of the year supported a good start for the economy.
According to the data of the People's Bank of China, the scale of social financing continued to increase year-on-year in January. At the end of January, the stock of social financing was 38429 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95%, the growth rate was the same as the previous month. The January increment was 650 trillion yuan, the highest level in the same period in history, 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; "The scale of social financing is a relatively comprehensive indicator of financial support for the real economy. Experts analyzed the Financial Times that social finance continued to increase year-on-year on the basis of a high base in the same period last year, indicating that the financial system has maintained a high level of financial support for the real economy. Loan data also maintained steady growth. "Previously, the average of new loans in January was about 47 trillion yuan, the actual loan data exceeded market expectations. An industry insider told reporters. In this regard, industry insiders generally believe that the strong support of various policies at the beginning of 2024 has effectively boosted market confidence. "Since the beginning of the year, the prudent monetary policy has been flexible, moderate, precise and effective, timely announced the RRR cut and the reduction of the re-lending and rediscount interest rates to support the rural support and small re-lending, and the rediscount interest rate has been released to release favorable policies, and continue to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity through open market operations and MLF excess renewal, effectively boosting market confidence. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, analyzed to reporters. In addition, the effects of many policies since 2023 have also continued to appear. For example, in 2023, the financial management department will continue to optimize the real estate credit policy by reducing the interest rate of existing housing loans and meeting the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and real estate-related loans will also show signs of stabilization. Steady loan growth helped the economy get off to a good start to the year. Market experts generally believe that GDP growth in 2024 is expected to further converge with the potential economic growth rate, a significant rebound from the average growth level of 4% in the past two years, but problems such as insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries and weak social expectations still exist in the short term. In the new year, the economy will continue to pick up and improve, and it is very important to stabilize the start. Loan growth in January was higher than market expectations, reflecting the strengthening of the vitality of the real economy, and the advance deployment of investment and production by enterprises, helping to achieve a good start to the economy. Better financial data can also continue to boost confidence and improve social expectations. The new loans in January this year were basically the same as the previous year, which to a certain extent also reflects the effectiveness of financial institutions in smoothing the pace of credit disbursement. "Although all walks of life have a tradition of pursuing a 'good start', commercial banks are also accustomed to putting loans forward, and loan growth tends to be relatively fast at the beginning of the year. However, at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on January 24, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that the total amount of credit should be maintained in 2024 in a moderate and stable manner. The steady growth of loans in January reflects the requirement for a stable credit rhythm. There are experts who explain. Factors such as the dislocation of the Spring Festival may bring short-term data disturbances.
The industry suggests that some financial data should be observed in January and February.
According to the People's Bank of China, at the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 29763 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%。At the same time, the fluctuation of M2 growth rate in January also attracted market attention. The interviewed experts explained that the growth rate of M2 fell in the month, which was affected by a variety of factors, and on the whole, the characteristics of periodic disturbances were more obvious. "From the perspective of short-term disturbance factors, fiscal spending will generally peak before the Spring Festival, and the increase in fiscal expenditure will lead to faster M2 growth. Industry insiders said that the Spring Festival in 2023 will be in January, and this year's Spring Festival will be in February, and the fiscal expenditure will be dislocated from January to February, which will cause the growth rate of M2 to decline in January and rebound in February. In 2021, there was a similar dislocation of the Spring Festival, and the growth rate of M2 fell by 07 percentage points to 94%, and in February 2021 it rebounded to 101%。It is generally estimated that the impact of fiscal factors on the M2 pull-down in January this year is also 0About 7 percentage points. From the perspective of long-term trends, monetary policy has increased counter-cyclical adjustment since the epidemic, financial data is generally ahead of economic data, and M2 growth also reached a high point of nearly 13% in February last year, significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate. In addition, some experts said that from the perspective of financial support for high-quality economic development, the reduction of capital idling and arbitrage in the financial system, and the increase in the purchase of bonds by enterprises and residents to promote the development of direct financing will also have some benign substitutions for loans, and correspondingly reduce the growth rate of M2. In fact, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has repeatedly warned against paying too much attention to fluctuations in short-term data. "Actually, for the month, the Spring Festival dislocation factor has a great impact. "Some people in the industry suggest that many statistics will be released in January and February due to the Spring Festival, and the overall financial data should also be observed in January and February. In the medium and long term, China's economic structural transformation is having a profound impact on credit growth and credit structure, and the debt-driven economic growth model of real estate and local financing platforms is difficult to sustain. Enhance policy effectiveness
The structure is optimized, and the interest rate is declining.
In terms of scale, the financial data is generally better than expected, the prudent monetary policy is flexible, moderate, precise and effective, adheres to the fundamental purpose of financial services for the real economy, strengthens counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment, and maintains stable support for the economy. At the same time, the credit structure and interest rate are well reflected. Among them, in terms of credit structure, the support for key areas in the past two years has been emphasized, and the structure has been continuously optimized. "The evolution of credit structure is a reflection of the changes in the economic structure, and the optimization of credit investment is also conducive to promoting economic transformation and development. Some experts told the Financial Times that as the economy enters a stage of high-quality development, the demand for traditional loans such as real estate and financing platforms, which used to be larger, has weakened, while new kinetic energy loans such as inclusive small and micro enterprises and high-tech manufacturing have grown rapidly, coupled with an upward trend in direct financing and accelerated loan write-offs. On the whole, the credit growth rate may decline in the process of converting old and new kinetic energy and adjusting the financing structure, but the credit structure has been significantly optimized, and the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy have actually been significantly improved. As of the end of 2023, among the more than 230 trillion yuan of existing loans, the proportion of inclusive small and micro, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate loans is roughly 10%, 10%, 20%, and 20%, and the structure has been continuously improved, and the proportion of inclusive small and micro loans and manufacturing loans has increased significantly. The market institutions generally believe that the People's Bank of China has a forward-looking layout, the existing relending tools have basically achieved full coverage, and the effect of optimizing the credit structure and promoting high-quality financial development has gradually emerged. At the end of 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of loans to "specialized, special and new" enterprises and technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises will be around 20%, and the growth rate of green loans and inclusive small and micro enterprises at the end of January 2024 will also be above %, which is significantly higher than the growth rate of all loans. In terms of financing costs, the macro effect of the downward interest rate is also being released. According to the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy for the Fourth Quarter of 2023" recently released by the People's Bank of China, in December 2023, the weighted average interest rate on corporate loans was 375%, down 022 percentage points, a new low since statistics; The weighted average interest rate for new personal housing loans is 397%, 029 percentage points. The interviewed financial institutions generally reported that the interest rate of corporate loans and personal housing loans in January 2024 is still expected to continue to decline steadily. The continuous decline in lending rates has effectively stimulated the demand for credit. The reporter paid attention to the fact that the consumer loan interest rate of some banks has been reduced to "2", which has played a supporting role in promoting consumption and stabilizing investment at the beginning of the year. At the same time, last year's reduction in the interest rate of the stock of first home loans reduced the interest burden of home buyers, and more than 50 million households spent about 170 billion yuan less every year, which played a positive role in boosting market confidence. The reporter learned from a large state-owned bank that the new personal housing loans in January also increased year-on-year. "Steady and declining lending rates are both goals and challenges. Dong Ximiao believes that China's economy is still in the post-epidemic recovery stage and needs continuous strong financial support. At present, there are two major constraints on the downward trend of lending rates: First, domestic and foreign interest rate differentials. The current round of interest rate hikes in developed economies is likely to be over, but the interest rate level is still at a high level, and the short-term policy interest rates of China and the United States are inverted by more than 3 percentage points; The second is the spread between deposits and loans. As of the third quarter of 2023, the net interest margin of China's large banks is 166%, which is the lowest level in history, considering factors such as the adjustment of interest rates on existing housing loans and the restructuring of local debts, banks' net interest margins may continue to narrow. It is necessary to grasp all factors in a coordinated manner to create conditions for the downward movement of interest rates. "At the beginning of 2024, the People's Bank of China announced another RRR cut of 05 percentage points, the release of long-term funds of more than 1 trillion yuan, at the same time, the re-lending and re-discounting rates of supporting agriculture and small enterprises will be reduced by 025 percentage points, these measures are conducive to reducing the cost of funds for financial institutions. In addition, since 2022, banks have taken the initiative to reduce the interest rate on deposits four times, and the cost pressure on the liability side of commercial banks has been effectively alleviated, creating favorable conditions for further reducing the credit cost of corporate residents and improving the sustainability of the real economy. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told the Financial Times reporter. Everybody is watching
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