Reading guide:
Yunyue Capital continues to cultivate in the field of new energy & intelligent vehicles, on the one hand, it has provided strategic consulting and financing services for many projects, and on the other hand, it has done a lot of original researchFor some of the original achievements, please click on the "Yunyue Capital [New Energy & Intelligent Vehicle] Industry Research Series Report Collection (10 Articles)".
Looking back on 2023, China's automotive industry has been fixed as one of the three key words: "domestic and foreign sales are soaring", "war is full of smoke" and "autonomous driving is in full swing". Now, standing at the new beginning of 2024, it is also worth waiting to see what changes China's auto industry will usher in.
According to the outlook of the development trend of China's auto industry, it is expected that China's auto industry will have the following trends in 2024:
1. Sales hit a new highIn 2024, China's auto market will continue to grow relatively strongly, and annual auto sales are expected to reach 32 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, setting a new record high.
2. Sales of new energy vehicles maintained double-digit growthChina's new energy vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly, with annual sales expected to reach 11.8 million units, an increase of more than 20%, and the market penetration rate will exceed 36%.
3. Going to sea will be the main theme:Chinese automakers will continue to expand their localization in overseas markets, and accelerate their overseas expansion by going overseas with domestic companies, making overseas acquisitions, and cooperating with foreign brands.
4. The competitive landscape is further differentiatedThe industry will present a pattern of alliance operations and giants take all. There are three main modes of ecological layout of car companies: taking a stake in Huawei's automotive BU business, establishing alliances with some state-owned car companies, and insisting on deepening vertical integration.
5. When battery companies go to sea, battery passports will become the focusIn 2024, the carbon footprint management of the power battery industry will be the first to land, and the carbon footprint accounting and battery passport requirements of power battery companies will become the focus.
6. The intensive listing of plug-in hybrid models is the main driving force for the growth of new energy vehiclesIt is expected that the sales of plug-in hybrid models (including range extensions) will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in 2024 and continue to be the main driving force for the growth of new energy vehicles.
7. New energy vehicles open the era of superchargingThe 800V fast charging system has accelerated its popularization and gradually become the standard configuration of mid-to-high-end electric vehicles (more than 200,000 yuan).
8. The scale of urban NOA has landed, and cost reduction and experience optimization have become the main themeReducing costs and improving user experience will become the core needs of intelligent driving products, so car companies will continue to upgrade technical solutions and optimize user experience through data accumulation and AI model empowerment.
9. The first year of the large model on the car:The empowerment of large models for automotive products will first be reflected in the significant improvement of users' intelligent experience, so that users will gradually establish their understanding of the functional advantages of large model products.
10. Quasi-centralized architecture promotes cabin and driver integrationIn 2024, large-scale computing power chips and quasi-first-class centralized architecture of vehicles will be mass-produced to support the integration of cabins and drivers and release value.
For details, please refer to the text
Standing at the new starting point of 2024, what changes will China's auto industry usher in? Experts in various fields of Geist Consulting Co., Ltd. have made an outlook and prediction on the prospects of China's automotive industry, and put forward ten trends in the automotive industry in 2024. It is now officially released and shared with readers.
Trend 1: The overall automobile market is stable and rising, and annual sales are expected to reach 32 million units
In the context of the continuous improvement of the macro economy, under the influence of multiple favorable policies such as encouraging automobile consumption and relaxing purchase restrictions and license plate restrictions, China's auto market is expected to continue its recovery trend in 2024, and the overall sales volume is expected to rise steadily. StillThe automotive market remainsThere are two major challenges:First, there is great uncertainty in the foreign market environment, and automobile exports may encounter higher barriers; Second, the domestic market consumption momentum is insufficientIt is reflected in the fact that the scale of the B-end market (enterprise users) tends to be saturated in stages, while the growth momentum of the C-end market (individual users) continues to weaken
Geist's judgment:In 2024, China's auto market will continue to grow relatively strongly, and annual auto sales are expected to reach 32 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 7%, setting a new record high. Among them, the domestic market is expected to increase by 3% year-on-year, and consumer demand still needs to be further released; The export market is expected to increase by 1.2 million units year-on-year, continuing the double-digit growth, but the growth rate will slow down. From the perspective of model classification, with the increase in demand for family car replacement and the intensive release of new products by car companies, it is expected that the passenger car market will rise steadily, with an annual growth rate of 58%。At the same time, with the strengthening of the policy effect, the continuous improvement of the transportation environment, and the continued recovery of commercial vehicle demand, the total sales of commercial vehicles will reach 4.5 million units in 2024, maintaining a double-digit year-on-year growth. Among them, heavy trucks and light trucks are still the largest growth drivers for commercial vehicles, and the increase is expected to reach 150,000 and 200,000 units, respectively.
Trend 2: The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and the growth rate has slowed down
In 2024, factors such as incentives, corporate investment and consumer preferences will continue to promote the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. Specifically, the reduction and exemption of purchase tax for new energy vehicles and the continuation of the policy of sending cars to the countryside, coupled with the further popularization of charging and swapping infrastructure, are conducive to the development of new energy vehicles; The quantity and quality of new energy products supplied by car companies continue to increase, and the price is likely to continue to fall, which will provide supply-side security; With the full implementation of key technologies such as electrification and intelligence, consumers' recognition of new energy vehicles is rapidly improving. But at the same time,New energy vehicles also face two unfavorable factors:First, the first barrier will increase the pressure on the export of new energy vehicles; Second, the strengthening of oil prices and fuel vehicles will pose challenges in cost competitiveness, which will have a short-term impact on the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles
Geist's judgment:It is estimated that China's new energy vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly in 2024, with annual sales expected to reach 11.8 million units, an increase of more than 20%, and the market penetration rate will exceed 36%. On the one hand, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach 11.15 million units, and the market penetration rate will increase from 35% in 2023 to 41%. Among them, the acceleration of the full electrification of new passenger car models of Chinese brand automakers, coupled with the gradual increase in the volume of new energy brands and product series, will continue to occupy an absolute dominant share in the new energy vehicle market. On the other hand, relevant policies will drive the sustainable development of new energy commercial vehicles, and their market penetration is expected to increase from 11% in 2023 to 14%, in particular, the market size of new energy heavy trucks and new energy logistics vehicles will be further expanded.
Trend 3: Automobile exports continue to grow, and the contribution of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50%.
In 2024, China's auto exports will have both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, the continuous improvement of the level of cooperation among the "Belt and Road" countries, the deepening and upgrading of cooperation between China and ASEAN in various fields, and the temporary and comprehensive exemption of import taxes on electric vehicles in Mexico and other regional policies are all positive factors for the export of new energy vehicles. On the other hand, overseas markets are facing great uncertainties, such as policy barriers such as EU countervailing investigations, and the instability of the global ** chain, which will have an adverse impact on China's auto exports.
Geist's judgment:In 2024, China's total exports of ** automobiles are expected to reach 6.2 million units, maintaining its position as the world's largest automobile exporter. Among them, in terms of brand classification, the exports of Chinese brand automakers will maintain a growth trend, and the total volume is expected to increase by 700,000 units; As a result of declining sales and overcapacity in the Chinese market, joint venture brand automakers are expected to aggressively shift to overseas markets, and their total exports are expected to increase by 300,000 units. In terms of power type classification, the export volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 1.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 54%; Exports of conventional fuel vehicles are expected to be around 4.35 million units, up about 14% y/y. At the same time, we judge that in 2024, there will be great changes in the overseas mode of Chinese car companies. In order to avoid barriers, strengthen cost control and improve market response speed, Chinese car companies will continue to expand the localization layout in overseas markets, and adopt methods such as going overseas with domestic enterprises, overseas acquisitions, and cooperating with foreign brands to accelerate their overseas layout
Trend 4: Industry integration and gear shifting are accelerating, and the competitive landscape is further differentiated
As the industrial transformation continues to deepen, the competition in the domestic market will become more fierce in 2024, and many car companies will be eliminated. At the same time, more companies will choose to strengthen cooperation, stay together for warmth, and share investment, such as Huawei's independent automotive BU business and absorbing shares from car companies, the accelerated expansion of the HarmonyOS Zhixing model, and the alliance of car companies in the field of battery swapping and fast charging. Under such circumstances, industry consolidation will shift gears faster, and the competitive landscape of China's auto industry will accelerate differentiation and reshaping.
Geist's judgment:In 2024, the elimination competition and ecological development led by intelligence will become the main theme of China's auto market. From the perspective of the industry: first, the industry knockout competition has intensified, and the survival of the fittest has been further acceleratedIn the current environment of fierce competition around the stock market, the leading car companies will make every effort to strengthen their own advantages, and new car manufacturers are still entering the game, and the battle for market share is becoming more intense, so the number of companies that are marginalized or even eliminated from the market will increase. Second, the trend of integration between Chinese brands is more obviousIn the face of Huawei's Automotive Ecological Alliance, more car companies will choose cooperative development and ecological layout, and eventually the industry will present a pattern of alliance operations and giants take all. There are three main modes of ecological layout of car companies: taking a stake in Huawei's automotive BU business, establishing alliances with some state-owned car companies, and insisting on deepening vertical integration.
From the perspective of the market: on the one hand, the market share of car series by country will continue to decline in 2024It is expected that the share of Chinese brands will increase to more than 55%, and the overall share of joint venture brands will continue to decrease. On the other hand, there will continue to be a fragmentation within Chinese brands: The leading car companies continue to make efforts in the plug-in hybrid vehicle market of 100,000-200,000 yuan to maintain their leading position in the market; The brand differentiation of new forces is intensifying, and advantageous enterprises will accelerate the launch of new products to expand market share; With the continuous efforts of Huawei's ecological enterprises and the entry of Xiaomi Automobile, the intelligent competition of products in the range of 200,000-300,000 yuan will become more intense. In this case, how to find a balance between maintaining their core advantages and strengthening cooperation to achieve win-win results has become the key to achieving sustainable development in the future
Trend 5: The low-carbon process of power batteries is accelerating, and battery companies going overseas has become a new trend
Affected by two major factors, the battery industry will accelerate the pace of low-carbon in 2024. First, the low-carbon development of China's automobile industry has entered a new stage, and the construction of a carbon management system has been launchedPower battery manufacturing accounts for about 40% of carbon emissions in the whole life cycle of pure electric vehicles, and will become a key area for carbon reduction; Second, the battery industry has serious "involution" and overcapacity, and at the same time, the technology has achieved a phased lead, so it will become a new trend for Chinese battery companies to go overseas。However, China's battery going overseas faces foreign restrictions on the level of battery carbon emissions, such as the European Union's "New Battery Law" puts forward requirements such as carbon footprint and battery passport, and other countries and regions have also formulated relevant regulations and standards. Further, the low-carbon level of power batteries directly affects the compliance of China's new energy vehicle product exports. Therefore,Reducing carbon emissions in the battery manufacturing process has become an important measure for battery companies to seize market opportunities and create new competitive advantages
Geist's judgment:In 2024, the carbon footprint management of the power battery industry will be the first to land, and the carbon footprint accounting and battery passport requirements of power battery companies will become the focus. It is expected that car companies will accelerate the establishment of digital carbon management platforms, carry out in-depth first-chain surveys, and put forward clearer low-carbon requirements for battery companies; Battery companies will promote the development of zero-carbon technology and accelerate the layout of zero-carbon factories and battery systems.
Trend 6: Plug-in hybrid maintains rapid growth and continues to become the main driving force for the growth of new energy vehicles
Plug-in hybrid vehicles will show explosive growth in 2023, and it is expected that the sales of plug-in hybrid models (including range extensions) will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in 2024, and continue to be the main driving force for the growth of new energy vehicles. The momentum of the sales growth of plug-in hybrid models mainly comes from two aspects:On the demand side, consumers' acceptance of plug-in hybrid vehicles continues to increase, and they are increasingly aware of their advantages such as diversified use scenarios and high cost performance. On the supply side, plug-in hybrid models will be intensively launched in 2024, covering all price ranges, especially the price of products may be further reduced, there will be more models into the 100,000-150,000 yuan or even less than 100,000 yuan range.
Geist's judgment:In 2024, plug-in hybrid models are expected to increase by 1.2 million units, accounting for more than 35% of the new energy passenger vehicle market, and the growth rate will exceed the overall level of the new energy passenger vehicle market. Specifically, plug-in hybrid models will have different incremental performance in different ** ranges: in the ** range below 100,000, due to the decline of more plug-in hybrid models, it is expected to bring an increase of 100,000 units; The 100,000-200,000** range will be the largest incremental range for plug-in hybrid models, which is expected to increase by up to 600,000 units, especially the plug-in hybrid products of Chinese brands will accelerate the market share of joint venture brand fuel vehicle products; 200,000-300,000 yuan belongs to the core ** range of pure electric models, but the sales of plug-in hybrid models in this range are also expected to increase, and it is expected that there will be an increase of 300,000 units; In the ** range of more than 300,000 units, hard-core off-road models and extended-range SUVs with large space characteristics will be the main contributors to the increase, which is expected to increase by 200,000 units.
Trend 7: The era of automotive supercharging has begun, and the popularization of 800V fast charging has accelerated
Compared with high-current and battery swap routes, high-voltage fast charging (800V) has more advantages in terms of efficiency and cost, and it has gradually become an industry consensus to solve the problem of energy replenishment anxiety of electric vehicles through high-voltage fast charging. Currently,High-voltage fast charging has been promoted:First, the super-rechargeable battery has entered the production landing stage, CATL, China Innovation Aviation and many other battery companies have launched ultra-rechargeable batteries; Second, vehicle companies and first-class companies should speed up the layout of 800VBrands such as Ideal, Xpeng, and Geely have released global 800V architecture products; Third, 800V-related components and materials are in the stage of capacity ramp-up and cost reductionFourth, vehicle companies and charging pile providers are speeding up the construction of supercharging stations
Geist's judgment:In 2024, the era of supercharging of new energy vehicles will be opened, and the 800V fast charging system will accelerate its popularization and gradually become the standard configuration of mid-to-high-end electric vehicles (more than 200,000 yuan), and the penetration rate is expected to reach 30% in B-class and above models, and the price of models equipped with 800V architecture is expected to drop to 150,000 yuan. At the same time, the number of overcharging piles will also increase significantly, and it is expected to exceed 100,000 sets. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the application scope of supercharging, it will effectively alleviate users' anxiety about energy replenishment and promote the further improvement of the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles.
Trend 8: The scale of urban NOA has landed, and cost reduction and experience optimization have become the main theme
In the context of the rapid application of high-level assisted driving, it is expected that enterprises will adopt a dual-line parallel strategy in 2024。Leading players continue to promote the large-scale implementation of the City Pilot Assistance Function (NOA), which will gradually improve the intelligent driving capability of automobiles from landing in more than 100 cities to covering the whole country. The other part of the players actively participated in the L3 and L4 pilot access based on the production models, explored the implementation of higher-level intelligent driving functions in limited scenarios, and achieved the effect of dislocation competition through the advanced division of rights and responsibilities and the hands-off experience in specific scenarios.
In addition, reducing costs and improving user experience will become the core needs of intelligent driving products, so car companies will continue to upgrade technical solutions and optimize user experience through data accumulation and AI model empowerment. At the same time, the first business will continue to launch "lightweight" solutions to promote high-end assisted driving functions to affordable models (into the range of 100,000-200,000 yuan), so as to cover more user groups and achieve large-scale cost reduction.
Geist's judgment:With its large-scale application, the development of intelligent driving products of various car companies will enter the stage of "intensive cultivation": different from the past emphasis on functional leadership and scene coverageIn the future, the competition between enterprises will focus on a more pragmatic goal, that is, to continuously reduce the cost of intelligent driving solutions and improve the intelligent driving experience of users
Trend 9: Digital and intelligent iteration, 2024 will become the first year for large models to be launched
The automotive industry has entered the stage of digitalization and intelligence. In 2024, a number of car companies will launch product functions based on large models, mainly focusing on intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit. The rapid accumulation of data in the automotive industry and the rapid iteration of software and hardware technologies have laid a solid foundation for large-scale models to be put on the car. Among them, massive data will become the first iteration of large model training; The evolution of vehicle electronic and electrical architecture to centralized will build a good operating environment for large models. The deepening of vehicle-cloud collaboration will provide infrastructure support for the operation of large models. Specifically, in 2024, car companies are expected to launch an urban NOA solution based on large model algorithms that is "light map and heavy perception", and will also rely on multimodal generative AI to create a more intelligent voice interaction experience.
Geist's judgment:In 2024, mass production of a number of products with large model functions will begin, thus becoming the first year of large model application on the car. The empowerment of large models for automotive products will first be reflected in the significant improvement of users' intelligent experience, so that users will gradually establish their understanding of the functional advantages of large model products. With the continuous enrichment of large model application scenarios, the perception and favor of users will continue to deepen, and high-end functions of large models paid by users may appear in the future, so as to further promote the application of large models in automobiles and the realization of their value
Trend 10: The intelligent architecture continues to evolve, promoting the implementation of cabin-driver integration solutions
Cockpit and driver integration is an important trend in the development of automotive intelligence, and the realization of cabin and driver integration mainly depends on the concentration of the vehicle architecture. In 2024, with the centralization of vehicle electronic and electrical architecture and the mass production of large computing power chips, the cockpit and driver integration solution is expected to land. At present, a number of Chinese car companies have a mature solution based on multi-chip integration, quasi-centralized electronic and electrical architecture, which can be compatible with the mainstream chips of domestic and foreign manufacturers, and realize cabin and driver integration through physical integration. There are three main ways to achieve cockpit and driver integration: one-box (centralized in the same domain controller box), one-board (centralized on the same core board), and one-chip (centralized on the same chip). Some Chinese automakers have chosen to skip the one-box transition plan and go straight to the one-board solution. At the same time, the high-computing power single chip of the leading foreign manufacturer will be mass-produced in 2024, and the computing power can be as high as more than 2000tops. With this support, the electronic and electrical architecture of vehicles in 2024 is expected to achieve the one-chip solution, that is, the ultimate goal of chip-level convergence. The implementation of the one-chip solution will form a strong demand for China's local high-computing power chips, which in turn will drive Chinese car companies and chip companies to actively deploy large-power single-chip solutions.
Geist's judgment:In 2024, large-scale computing power chips and quasi-first-class centralized architecture of vehicles will be mass-produced to support the integration of cabins and drivers and release value. The experience advantages brought by cabin and driver integration will in turn drive the accelerated development of centralized hardware, which is conducive to its large-scale cost reduction. Chinese car companies are actively exploring the integration of cabins and drivers, which will lay the foundation and accumulate experience for the realization of a completely centralized architecture in the future
Contact Yunyue Capital
Ecological cooperation: 15013894722
BP Delivery: bp@cloud-joycom
Company Introduction:
Founded in Shenzhen, Yunyue Capital is a comprehensive industrial investment bank integrating "strategy + marketing + financial advisory". Originating from industry giants such as Huawei, ZTE, Goodix, and Dongfeng Motor, the Yunyue Capital team connects more than 3,000 institutions around the world and provides strategic consulting, financing, M&A and other industrial investment banking services for nearly 200 enterprises, covering technology, new energy, healthcare, consumption and other fields.