"This year, the key word of the photovoltaic industry is overcapacity, but this is an inevitable product of the development of the market economy. The PV industry goes through a development cycle every five years, so I don't think there is a need to panic about the current market concerns about overcapacity, and it is expected that the industry will return to a thriving situation in the next year or so. A few days ago, at the China Zhejiang (Ninghai) photovoltaic and energy storage industry development seminar, Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said.
From 2019 to 2020, China's leading photovoltaic enterprises have announced production expansion, and all links in the upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain are in a state of expansion. With the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry's production capacity, the market continues to speculate about overcapacity, coupled with the obvious decline of the **chain** this year, the concern about overcapacity has intensified.
However, in the eyes of industry insiders, overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry is only a short-term phenomenon, in the long run, the future global photovoltaic demand is huge, basically consistent with the speed of capacity expansion, enterprises need to take precautions. In addition, the photovoltaic industry is in a period of technological iteration, and overcapacity will promote the elimination of backward production capacity.
The market demand in the future is huge.
According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in the first half of this year, China's output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and modules increased by 60% and 60% year-on-year, respectively. During the same period, the photovoltaic chain continued to decline, and the fastest declining link decreased by nearly 80% compared with last year, and the rapid and continuous decline of each link increased the user's price reduction expectations.
On the one hand, production capacity continues to grow and decline, and on the other hand, photovoltaic companies continue to raise funds to expand production. For a time, the photovoltaic industry was pushed to the forefront of overcapacity. Financial analysts such as brokerages generally believe that the photovoltaic manufacturing industry has shown the characteristics of overcapacity, and affects the valuation of related enterprises, and it is expected that overcapacity will peak next year.
In the eyes of industry insiders, the concern about overcapacity is actually the uncertainty of the prediction of future photovoltaic market demand. "Everybody is concerned about overcapacity. In the current situation of capacity expansion, how big can the market size be?Zhong Fufu, an associate researcher at the National Energy Research Institute, pointed out that "China's photovoltaic production capacity is not only domestic, but also global." From this level, the industry still has a relatively large room for growth in the world;At the same time, there is still some room for growth in China. ”
An unnamed senior executive of a PV company also expressed the same opinion: "The PV ** chain ** is obviously affected by changes in supply and demand. From 2020 to 2022, polysilicon** remained high due to short supply, and it did not fluctuate downward until this year. Therefore, the layout of photovoltaic production capacity needs to be appropriately advanced, otherwise the shortage of polysilicon more than two years ago will also hinder the development of the market. ”
The transition period between the old and new technologies is located.
Industry insiders agree that today, the secondary market does feel overcapacity to a certain extent, but at the same time, it should be noted that solar cell technology is in a period of renewal at this stage, and in this context, overcapacity is excusable.
Zhuang Yinghong, Global Marketing Director of Risen Energy, said: "Any problem should be looked at from different angles. At present, solar cell technology is in the transition period from p-type to n-type, and from this year's orders, TOPCON and heterojunction products are becoming more and more popular. In the future, it is impossible for all enterprises to continue to adhere to the P-type route, and the advanced capacity of the photovoltaic industry is not excessive. ”
According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the industrialization process of n-type products has been fully accelerated. In the first half of this year, the market demand for n-type products was strong, and the production capacity also increased rapidly. This year, SNEC has fully switched to N-type modules, with N-type modules accounting for more than 90%.
Lv Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert committee of the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said: "There is no reason why the cell sector should not release new production capacity. PERC technology has been the mainstream technology for many years, and in the same period, N-type technology has also accumulated to a certain extent, and the industry has begun to implement N-type products, and the production capacity of N-type products has been continuously expanded, and PERC products have begun to replace PERC products. ”
Another senior executive of a photovoltaic company said: "It is understandable that the photovoltaic industry continues to expand its production capacity, and even there is a phased surplus, and it is not necessarily a bad thing." PERC technology is getting closer and closer to the ceiling, whether it's heterojunction or TOPCON, enterprises are transforming. In terms of production capacity, the output of n-type products is relatively small, and there is room for market development. The current expansion process can be understood as the process of capacity conversion of enterprises in the industry. ”
Backward production capacity is being eliminated at an accelerated pace.
Zhuang Yinghong said that China's photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, technology upgrading is rapid, and many old production capacity has been retained, and the competition between new production capacity and old production capacity is also one of the main reasons for the current surplus. At the same time, in the case of good prospects for the development of the photovoltaic industry, more and more new players are pouring in, which further exacerbates the fluctuation of the photovoltaic chain, and the competition is fierce, but it is still a short-term phenomenon and will not continue for a long time.
Businesses agree. A few days ago, an investor asked Otway on the interactive platform what the company's judgment on photovoltaic overcapacity is, and Otway staff replied that the phased overcapacity of photovoltaic will prompt the industry to eliminate backward production capacity.
Lv Jinbiao believes: "Overcapacity is not terrible at all, and in general, the development of the industry is still in a benign stage. This year, polysilicon production capacity has increased, and it is not nervous, but it will come down. At the same time, the industry's new domestic and global photovoltaic installed capacity has also increased a lot, maintaining a good momentum of development. ”
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association proposed that for the photovoltaic industry, overcapacity can drive technological innovation to a certain extent, and gradually eliminate backward production capacity through the capacity substitution of advanced technology. However, overcapacity and homogeneous competition often deal a heavy blow to the industry. In the stage of intensifying homogeneous competition in the industry and increasingly fierce competition in the first chain, if you want not to be eliminated from the market, differentiation, innovation, and high-quality development may be the best path that major photovoltaic companies should choose.