Now I am looking forward to 3 p.m. ** at the opening of the market every day, and I can stop the fall ......
Yesterday afternoon, the dive directly let the A shares go to 2800 points, and the GEM index fell by 247%, falling below 1600 points, and then hitting a new low, there are more than 5000 *** data in the two cities**: Oriental Wealth app, statistics as of 2024 1 30, no investment recommendation) Be optimistic, this month will lose one more day at most!
This **, the funds have no enthusiasm for trading, what to buy and what to fall, and the turnover is only 663.6 billion.
However, northbound funds have been rushed for the end of the second day in a row, directly from outflow to net inflow, with a net inflow of 17 throughout the day4.2 billion yuan, it is difficult to say whether foreign capital has copied to the bottom or halfway up the mountain. 
Oriental Wealth app, statistics as of 2024 1 30, no investment recommendation).
Judging from the rise and fall of popular indexes, CSI Medical**167%, photovoltaic industry**244%, CS new energy car**296%, CSI Liquor**360%, semiconductor**389%。(Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistics as of 2024 1 30, no investment recommendation).The reason for the sharp fall of the GEM
Judging from the ** in the past few days, it is obvious that the ChiNext index has fallen more than the Shanghai Index. In the last three days alone, the GEM index has fallen by 796% of the year, in less than a month of the year, the GEM index fell 1626%, which is close to the 19% decline in last year, and the STAR 50 index on the other side has fallen more than last year.
Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistical range of change during the year: 2024 1 1 2024 1 30, 2023 change statistical range: 2023 1 1 2023 12 31, no investment recommendation) What happened to make the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board fall like this?
On the one hand, the weighted sectors of medicine, new energy, and technology are the main forces of the recent market. CATL, the largest heavy stock, hit a new low since December 2020 yesterday, and the other ** fell not small during the year. The ** of technology stocks also led to the top decline in the STAR 50 index. 
Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistics as of 2024 1 30, statistical range of the year's rise and fall: 2024 1 1 2024 1 30, no investment recommendation) On the other hand, the recent positive news of the Chinese word has continued, and the high dividend sector led the rise, and these ** market capitalization are very large, a PetroChina has a trillion market value, and the daily turnover of the limit a few days ago is close to 5 billion, which will cause a great bloodsucking effect on others. Judging from the news, although the China Securities Regulatory Commission completely suspended the lending of restricted shares at the end of last week, which released a good release, the A-shares did not appear as expected in the past few days. There is a view that some of the shares that have not yet been sold by the loan of restricted shares and have not been sold will be sold at an accelerated pace in the process of repayment, which will form selling pressure and affect the market; Or take advantage of this time window to "sell high and buy low". However, this statement was immediately denied, according to the relevant rules of margin financing and securities lending, the price of securities lending and selling shall not be lower than the latest transaction price of the **, which can effectively prevent securities lending and selling from quickly suppressing the stock price and triggering a large number of individual securities. The main reasons for affecting the market are actually poor mood, lack of confidence, and no incremental capital to help.
Although there have been funds entering the market through ETFs recently, judging from the turnover of a CSI 300 ETF yesterday, there have been three obvious increases, but none of them have brought other funds to follow up. 
Oriental Wealth app, statistics as of 2024 1 30, no investment recommendation).
In addition, there is only one trading day left before the deadline for the annual report performance forecast, and the last few days often become a high incidence period of "performance thunderstorm", and many funds begin to choose to wait and see. To say that it has been falling for 3 years, I thought that 2024 could turn a little around, who would have thought that the first month of the year would be another crit, and it would be difficult to warm up investors' emotions.
However, believing in the law of the cycle, the current valuation of the GEM index is already at a historical low, and the PE percentile is only 005%, compared to 99 in history95% of the time is underestimated.
Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistical interval: 2014 1 1 2024 1 30, no investment recommendation) Although the road is very tortuous, the road ahead will be bright.
The high-dividend sector led the year
As mentioned earlier, the high-dividend sector bucked the trend during the year, and the banking, coal and other sectors rose by more than 5%, ranking at the top of the annual growth list of Shenwan's first-class industry. 
Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistical interval: 2024 1 1 2024 1 30, no investment recommendation).
Good news comes from January 24, **SASAC said at the press conference: "focus on improving the quality of listed companies controlled by central enterprises, strengthen investor returns", "further study the market value management into the performance appraisal of the person in charge of the enterprise", on January 29, the SASAC said again at the ** enterprise and local SASAC assessment and distribution work meeting, "On the basis of the early pilot exploration and accumulation of experience, we will comprehensively promote the market value management assessment of listed companies, and adhere to the equal emphasis on process and results, incentives and constraints." At the same time, strengthen the punishment of violations that step on the red line and cross the bottom line, guide enterprises to pay more attention to the intrinsic value and market performance of listed companies, convey confidence, stabilize expectations, and better return investors. ”
In the market downturn, central enterprises with high dividends and low valuations have been favored by funds. Shenwan Hongyuan data shows that after excluding financial stocks, the overall dividend ratio of A-share central enterprises has increased from 29 in 20196% quickly climbed to 52 in 20224%, with an average annual increase of 76 percentage points. Guoxin** research report pointed out that "state-owned enterprises are the main force of dividends in the A** field, but there is still room for improvement in the proportion." In terms of the total amount of dividends and the proportion of dividends, central enterprises are still the main force of A-share dividends, and the proportion of dividends has continued to increase in the past five years. ”
Guoxin ** Research Institute, "On the "Special Valuation", How to Find the Direction", release time: 2024 1 29, no investment recommendation) From the perspective of valuation, the CSI Dividend Index is still in a relatively undervalued state.
As of January 30, 2024, there are differences in the valuation results at different times, which does not constitute a guarantee for the performance of the relevant index, and does not make investment recommendations).Funds enter the market through ETFs, bottoming out signal?
Although the trading volume of A-shares continues to shrink, there are still many funds entering the market through ETFs, especially the CSI 300 ETF.
Statistics show that from January 15th to 29th, there were 4 CSI 300 ETFs and 1 SSE 50 ETF with large capital collectives. In just two weeks, the total net inflow of these five ** funds was as high as 1331$2.6 billion. (Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice data, statistical interval: 2024 1 15 2024 1 29, no investment recommendation) ChinaAMC ** said that looking back on history, from August 31, 2018 to January 30, 2019, funds also accelerated the inflow of funds into the CSI 300 ETF, and the CSI 300 index from a low of 2935 points at the end of 2018, all the way to 5930 points at the beginning of 2021, ushered in a doubling. China Merchants ** believes that since the beginning of 2024, the continuous net inflow of ETFs has contributed the main incremental funds to A-shares, and the medium and long-term funds have deployed ETFs to send positive signals to the market, which will help to restore short-term market sentiment and improve risk appetite. It is expected that as A-shares improve, emerging sectors and thematic ETFs may still be important tools for investors to participate in structural opportunities amid the increasing divergence of corporate earnings and structural**. According to the data of CICC's research report, since late December 2023, the subscription scale of CSI 300 ETF has increased significantly, and its ability to absorb gold is outstanding. 
CICC Research Institute, CICC: Recent Panorama of A-share Capital Trends, published on January 30, 2024, not an investment recommendation).
CICC said, "When the market is at a stage low, the volume of major ETFs is abnormally large, and the trading volume is significantly higher than the average of the previous period, incremental funds are of positive significance for resolving the negative feedback of liquidity and boosting market confidence." ”
CICC Research Institute, CICC: Recent Panorama of A-share Capital Trends, Release time: 2024 1 30, no investment recommendation) No one knows when the market will fall to the bottom, the more difficult it is, the more it tests our mentality, ** always starts in despair, when everyone feels that it is going to fall, it may not be far from the bottom, just like no matter how cold the winter is, it will usher in the spring season after the past.