Publish a collection of dragon cards to share millions of cash
Public offerings, private placements, quantification, and snowballs have all stinked, the product sales front has really collapsed, and the consignment business is becoming more and more difficult.
At present, the income of the wealth manager of the sales department has declined sharply, and the income is at least half less than the first two years of the ** sales boom.
The current situation is that it is so difficult to sell that the headquarters has no incentive policies, and there is basically no money to get it when it is sold.
Since the tightening of supervision in September last year, various shocking thunderstorms have dominated the asset management track.
For example, in the past few days, Ningbo Lingjun, a quantitative giant that has exploded the circle of friends, has exploded!
Ningbo Lingjun manages more than 60 billion yuan, accounting for one-tenth of the total scale of the entire private equity and private equity management, and the degree of influence can be seen.
So what about the funds from the liquidation?
The first part is owned by the manager.
Generally not a lot, 10%? 20%？Funded by the capital and a small number of listed companies, what about the rest?
A large part of the principal is raised through institutional channels, and banks and securities companies have become the core channels.
That is, the part of the investor's money (BTW, the direct selling agency has exploded almost in the past few years, such as the median value of 3 trillion, the Haiyin of Han's father and son, and the Wanxiang Trust focusing on real estate planning......）
With the principal, then buy ** in the capital market, and finally further raise funds from the brokerage through the position**, that is, borrow.
So the brokerage funds for private placement financing ** come from?
Part of it is the brokerage's own funds, and more is obtained from shareholders and investors.
Such hundreds of millions of original funds, after some operations, have been enlarged to a scale of one or two billion.
As soon as this matter comes out, Lingjun is very likely to be crossed out of the white list by all banks, brokerages and ** agencies! (It means that the way of consignment and fundraising is cut off...)
At the same time, the shares bought by brokerages and banks, wealth management and even insurance companies with their own funds are facing redemption, and these institutions will not fight the risk of regulatory anger that they may face for the sake of a private placement.
The ending of Lingjun can be imagined......
Consignment sales are one and the other.
The overall volume of China's asset management industry is 110 trillion yuan, of which the scale of ** and ** sub-management is about 27 trillion.
Among them, consignment sales play an insignificant role in the entire asset management industry.
At present, the main consignment sales are composed of three parts: banks, securities companies, and third parties (usually referring to the Internet financial side).
Subject to regulatory requirements, approval processes and institutional genes, banks and securities firms have very limited self-owned products.
Strictly speaking, only securities companies have certain design and issuance qualifications;
In order to prevent the occurrence of interbank arbitrage, banks are restricted from issuance, and consignment sales have become the main value-added income services for bank customers, as a bank staff said, "We do not issue wealth management products, we are the porters of wealth management products." ”
In addition to the professional investment and research capabilities of the third party, it is also difficult to pass the filing and approval process, so consignment sales have become the mainstream, after all, from product design to management capabilities, the best manager is better.
The company also needs strong channel capabilities of bank and securities institutions.
Judging from the data of the ** industry association, as of Q4 2023, among the top 100 institutions, **mixed**, the scale of third-party distribution of brokerages and banks is 142/2.29/1.22 trillion, accounting for 284%/45.7%/24.3%, +235%/ - 1.9%/-0.66%, +617/-5.38/-1.31. The ranking of the brokerage company's consignment business has been further improved, which is related to the high level of risk appetite of brokerage customers and recent regulatory changes.
Specifically, from the perspective of **+ mixed scale, CITIC ** and Huatai ** ranked the top 2 brokerages, with a scale of 146.91345 billion yuan respectively, a slight decrease from the previous quarter;
Shenwan Hongyuan has made significant progress, with a scale of 86.7 billion, an increase of 49 billion from the previous quarter.
We look at the proportion of various channels from the top 100 public offering ** sales agencies, including 31 banks, 21 third-party sales agencies, 47 brokers, and 1 insurance company (Chinese Life Insurance), it is obvious that in terms of quantity, brokerages are the most, banks are second, and third-party sales agencies are close behind.
From the perspective of filing and capital holdings, a total of 436 institutions have passed the filing of AMAC and have the qualifications for public offering sales.
There are many banks with agency sales qualifications (164), but there are mainly 10-20 head institutions that rank relatively high, and due to the abundant customer resources, the scale of single agency sales is relatively high.
and the top 12 banks, with a total contribution of 91%; There are 103 brokerages with agency sales qualifications, but because the customers are mainly stockholders, although the base has increased in the past two years, the overall distribution scale is limited, and the single scale is generally not particularly large, and the overall ranking is relatively low.
But again, the top 21 brokerages contributed 87% of the holdings; The top three institutions account for 81% of the independent third-party level, and these three institutions are Ant (Hangzhou)** sales (890.1 billion yuan), Shanghai Tiantian** (432.4 billion yuan) and Teng'an** sales (104 billion yuan).
That is, the three institutions are Alibaba, Oriental Fortune and Tencent.
In addition, from the perspective of the category of consignment products, the downward trend of the capital market continues, except for high-risk first-class investment, which accounted for two-thirds of the consignment industry in the past.
For example, the relatively stable Treasury bonds, now the 10y Treasury bonds have fallen to 242%, 30y Treasury fell to 264%, resulting in a gradual increase in the proportion of insurance products, becoming the main layout products of investors during this period, and also becoming the products that major agencies compete to grab, especially the insurance products with good underlying assets and high credibility, which also reflects the pessimism of the investment market.
The competitive landscape is changing again
In the past two years, third-party consignment sales have fluctuated greatly, and some small institutions have been directly cleared by the market, and even large platforms such as Ant Financial have been rumored to terminate their consignment business.
In the near future, the second phase of the public offering fee reduction policy has been implemented, and the competition pattern of consignment sales will further change.
On December 8 last year, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Provisions on Strengthening the Management of Public Offering **Investment*** Transactions (Draft for Comments)".
We see that the draft for commentsThe concession measures and fee reductions of the first stage of the company's reduction of management fees in the early stage are the same as those in the first stage, and the impact involves multiple links such as public offering and sales, but the impact of the second stage of fee reduction is more directly affected by the brokerage.
Among them, Article 2 requires, **Company with"Research strong brokers"cooperation, through the voucher settlement model and the seat rental model to pay commissions, which means:"Strong sales and weak research"of brokers will have difficulty obtaining commissions in the future;
Article 4 requires that, in principle, the transaction commission rate of the passively managed ** shall not exceed the market average ** transaction commission rate (i.e., the gross rate is 2.).5-2.6) Others** shall not exceed twice the market average (i.e., slightly more than 50,000), which will cause a change from the mainstream commission rate of the market from 7-8 to less than 50,000, and the fee will be reduced by more than 30%, but it is in line with the previous market expectations;
Article 5 requires that the commission of ** company to a brokerage firm cannot exceed 15% of the total (the equity scale is less than 1 billion yuan to maintain 30%), based on this provision, the securities firm that controls and participates in the small and medium-sized public offering ** is relatively beneficial, but the short-term performance pressure of the brokerage company with high control and participation in the large-scale public offering **, and the commission income accounts for the total revenue is higher;
Article 6 states that the bond settlement ** is not subject to the proportion restriction in Article 5, which means that the bond settlement model will become a form of cooperation between the brokerage firm and the ** more extensively;
Article 7 requires that it is strictly forbidden to link the selection of ** companies and the distribution of transaction commissions with the scale of sales and ownership, and it is strictly forbidden to exchange interests with transaction commissions, and it is strictly forbidden to use transaction commissions to transfer payment fees to third parties, which means that it is difficult to survive the model of exchanging sales for commissions, and the importance of research and buyer investment consulting will be greatly increased, which also means that the sales of third-party trading platform services such as wind will be directly affected;
Article 9 requires that the manager shall regularly and publicly disclose the criteria for selecting cooperative brokerages and the expenditure of transaction commissions, which means that the disclosure of commissions is transparent, and the difficulty of small and medium-sized brokerages to negotiate cooperation may be reduced;
Article 11 requires that "the ** trading volume and transaction commission shall not be linked to the assessment of the sales department and personnel", which subverts the current ** sales appraisal model, or will promote the reshaping of the ** sales business model.
In addition, the strict implementation of the new policy and the severity of penalties for violations will have an impact on the future direction of business development.
To sum up, under the new regulations:
**The commission will be tilted towards the head brokerages and brokerages with strong research capabilities, and small and medium-sized brokerages are also expected to overtake through the research ability curve; At the same time, the importance of the bond settlement model and buy-side investment advisory will continue to be highlighted.
However, it should be noted that brokerages that rely too much on the commission of the controlling and participating companies, and the brokerage whose sales ability is much stronger than the research ability, will be negatively affected in the short term.
Finally, after these two rounds of fee reduction policies and various lightning incidents.
At present, the entire securities industry should begin to reflect on the awakening, right?
Rather than selling high-quality customers in their own system to major ** companies, making a loss of product consignment fees, and then the customers are collectively killed by ** companies, it is better to let customers themselves, how much can they earn some commissions.
No matter how bad it is, let customers buy the company's own asset management products, at least the meat will rot in the pot, and it will not be pulled away by other ** companies.