We live in a time when almost all textbooks say that long-term arbitrage opportunities do not exist, but the exception is in the country and time in which we live.
The country is undergoing a millennium of change, and this era is unprecedented.
In this day and age, it happened at least once"Pseudo"The large arbitrage opportunity, while not a perfect case, fits most of the characteristics.
This arbitrage opportunity is wider than the sky, wider than the sea, enough for people to enjoy the taste of gluttonous feast.
However, to seize such an opportunity, several conditions need to be met first:
1) This market must be large enough. The size of the market allows people to have more opportunities to invest and reduces the risk of investment to a certain extent.
2) There must be serious distortions in the market. Distortions allow investors to obtain excess returns through the gap of **, and if the distortion of the market is slight, then the gains may also be small.
3) 99% or even 99Ninety-nine per cent of the population must be unaware of the existence of such distortions. This distortion is likely to persist when most people don't know it, and if most people do, it may soon disappear.
Among them, the most difficult is the third one.
Because if most people knew, the distortion would probably disappear very quickly, which means that the excess returns made by investors would also disappear very quickly.
If you've guessed it, then this market is China's real estate market.
The real estate market is big enough, there's no doubt about it.
China's real estate market is one of the largest in the world and is constantly expanding.
But few would admit that it is actually distorted.
Many people think that China's real estate market is expensive, but they don't know that the reason for this high price is due to the distortion of the market.
So what is it called"Not distorted"This?
Take the pancake shop at the door, for example, it just doesn't twist.
You can buy a few if you want to, even if you forget to bring money today, it's completely okay to ask Aunt Baked Cake King to give you a few on credit.
If the profit of pancake fruit is too high, then tomorrow there will be Li Damiang and Zhao Damiang to open, and the pancake fruit market will become fully competitive, consumers can choose freely, no one will stipulate that Wang Damiang's baked cake can only be sold for 3 yuan, and only half of the egg can be added, not smeared tea sauce.
This kind of fully competitive market is not distorted, because consumers are free to choose, and ** will continue to adjust with changes in supply and demand.
However, the situation in the real estate market is different.
From the purchase of land, application for loans, pricing, issuance of permits, house type, area, supporting ratio, sales object, consumer credit, re-transaction period, tax penalties, intermediary brokers and other links, the developer must be strictly supervised and managed.
* intervention not only led to the distortion of the market, but also made the gap in the market continue to increase.
* The greater the scope of the intervention, the more severe the distortion of the market.
Due to distortions, there is a large number of ** gaps in the market.
When distortions occur, a large number of ** gaps can make the market incredibly complex and cause confusion for home buyers and investors.
There are business opportunities, but just because you have them doesn't mean you can succeed.
Because the success of a business opportunity depends not only on the business opportunity itself, but more importantly on how many competitors there are.
The number of competitors will directly affect your chances of success.
If there are a large number of competitors in the market, then your chances of success are greatly reduced.
Take the Internet as an example, if the Internet boom rises, then in just one month, 3,000 companies may emerge in Silicon Valley.
In this situation, no matter how many sheep there are, there are no more wolves, and your chances of success will be greatly reduced.
At this time, the third key point is involved. That's 99% or even 9999% of the people are still in a state of ignorance, receiving a false political economy and ** education.
This is the real core, the core of making money.
If such a period of time is missed, then such an opportunity will never arise again.
Only by making good use of the current opportunities can we create greater value and wealth in the future.
Different internal strength methods determine different growth routes.
If a person does not have the correct internal strength and mental method, then his growth and development will be greatly restricted.
And if a person has the right internal strength, then his growth and development will be smoother and more successful.
In 2005, ** launched"Macroeconomic control", a levy of 55% sales tax.
This is an important policy adjustment, which is of great significance for the development and stability of the real estate market.
Almost all hold"Correct"People from an economic point of view gasp because they think house prices are going to go up dramatically.
But hold"Wrong"People from the economic point of view think that if we look at the *** in 2005, we can almost see a downturn, there are 999999% of the population is declining, they think"** Shot, house prices are going to plummet"。
This shows that most people's understanding and judgment of policies are wrong.
The path of independent thinking and correct scholarship is so narrow that it is even 00001% of the population is under-employed.
And the basis for us to make money is based on the overall pattern of the whole era.
In the foreseeable future,"Political Economy"There will also be no loosening.
This is the basis of long-term arbitrage.