What can convince a person is never the truth but the south wall; What can wake up a person is never preaching but suffering. —Flowers
Students who have watched the hit drama "Flowers" should be familiar with the above sentence. Back to the capital market, as early as the beginning of 2023, Fortune Jun once reminded everyone that if you are a prudent investor, you should try to avoid the risk of large market fluctuations.
This reminder, at least for now, is still valid for most moderate investors, despite coming to 2024.
Fortune Jun is more clear that the investment value of pure debt ** is worthy of the attention of prudent investors.
1) Turbulence. 
If you use one word to summarize the commonality of the world's best, the first thing that comes to mind is turmoil, which can even be said to be violent turmoil.
First, let's take a look at the a** field.
Just after the release of the central bank's "RRR and interest rate cut" policy, the A**field continued to be sharply**. Among them, on January 25, the Shanghai Composite Index** rose to 303%, a strong recovery of 2900 points, nearly 200 points from Tuesday's low**, a cumulative increase of more than 6% for three consecutive days, and before that, the index fell all the way, the largest decline of more than 8% at the beginning of this year, almost staged a wave of "V" shape**, just in less than a month, the market trend made most investments unbearable.
No wonder some fans left a message saying that such a trend is like "I just entered the ICU before, but I went to KTV today, which is unbearable!" "In any case, the turmoil in the A** field can be seen from this.
Let's look at overseas markets, especially the United States.
Especially in the past year, the overall performance of the United States ** field can be said to be like a rainbow. On January 24, the S&P 500 index hit an all-time high of 4,903 points, and two days earlier, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq also hit record highs.
However, for the United States, with the end of the interest rate hike cycle, the market is concerned about the expectation of interest rate cuts gradually increasing, once the timing of the interest rate cut is confirmed, the impact on the US market will also be visible in investors, and whether the current rise in US stocks will draw a big question mark.
It is clear that the current turmoil remains inevitable for global markets, especially equity markets.
2) Outlook. 
For this year's global market, the judgment of the participants in the market may be more convincing.
In the new research report, ABC pointed out that the U.S. economy has obvious signs of cooling, consumption is weakening but remaining resilient, and the rate of excess savings consumption is accelerating, and it is expected that the U.S. economic growth will maintain a moderate linear decline in the first quarter of 2024, and the soft landing is expected to remain dominant.
At the same time, in December 2023, the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged as expected and signaled the end of rate hikes, the dot plot guided three rate cuts in 2024, and the economy** lowered its growth and inflation expectations for this year.
On the other hand, the domestic market is expected to be in the middle of the repair cycle this year, the gene of wave-like operation still exists, the fiscal policy is positive, and the monetary policy should be coordinated.
In addition, a number of international institutions and business institutions have recently raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, believing that China remains the largest engine of global economic growth. The National Bureau of Statistics also said that the basic trend of China's long-term economic improvement has not changed, and the factors and conditions supporting the high-quality development of China's economy are accumulating and increasing. Therefore, it is predicted that China's economy will continue to rebound in 2024.
3) Seesaw.
If there is a correction in the equity market, then like Fortune Jun, many investors, especially moderate investors, will definitely think of the bond market, after all, the "seesaw effect" is obvious, and this will also be verified in 2023.
For this year's bond market, ABC Huili**'s outlook is as follows:
First, funds fluctuate around the policy rate, and the deviation narrows. In 2024, there will still be an interest rate cut environment, but the deviation between the market funding rate and the policy rate may be smaller, and the perception of funds may be neutral.
This is followed by interbank certificates of deposit. Affected by the implementation of the new capital regulations, the general direction of the certificate of deposit interest rate may remain high, and the key to the subsequent fluctuation direction and magnitude lies in the central bank's RRR cut and the scale of MLF operation, which determines the capital structure and the degree of improvement of the liabilities of large banks, and correspondingly alleviates the situation of certificate of deposit price increase, which is expected to fluctuate in the range of MLF interest rate [-10BP, 20BP].
Again, interest rate bonds. There is little upside risk to interest rates, and interest rates may hit new lows with the help of interest rate cuts. Under the assumption of two interest rate cuts in 2024, the overall volatility range of 10-year Treasury bonds [24,2.9]。*In 2024, the pivot of interest rate bonds will remain stable, and the amplitude range will be limited. Under the baseline assumption that the economy is expected to recover but a V-shaped reversal is rare, there is upward pressure on interest rates but the magnitude is limited, and the rhythm is the opportunity to cut interest rates in the future.
Finally, there is the credit debt. Preferential selection of high-grade credit bonds, under controllable risk to obtain coupon value and continuous tracking, pay attention to changes in credit spreads; Pay attention to the new capital regulations on the superposition of urban investment bonds, and the supply of bank-supported bonds has decreased, and the supply of secondary permanent bonds has increased.
In 2023, China's bond market will develop steadily, with proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary and fiscal policies providing support for the "small bull market" of various types of bonds. For 2024, including Guotai Junan, Huatai**, CITIC**, China Merchants Bank and other institutions, it is believed that in the context of the high coupon "asset shortage" likely to continue, the yield of interest rate bonds and credit bonds is expected to continue to decline, and the "bond bull" positive factors may take turns to "take over".
4) Pure debt**.
Since you are optimistic about the bond market, is it okay to choose the bond base at random?
Of course not! Fortune Jun still wants to emphasize that because of the different scope of investment, bonds** can be roughly divided into three categories:
The first type is pure debt**. From the literal meaning alone, many investors can think that pure debt** is mainly invested in bonds, in fact, it is true, more than 80% of its investment** must invest in bonds;
The second type is the first-class debt base. Obviously, in addition to investing in bonds, this type of bond base originally had the advantage of playing new stocks, because of the regulatory suspension, so it is almost equivalent to pure debt**;
The third category is the secondary debt base. That is to say, this kind of ** products can be invested in the secondary market**, of course** generally not more than 20%, although the proportion of equity ** is not high, but ** volatility is large, the impact on its income is also relatively large.
This has been perfectly verified by the market in the past 2023:
Wind data shows that as of December 31, 2023, among the more than 4,258 bonds** (including pure bonds and hybrid bonds, etc.) in the whole market, 3,178 have a positive return in 2023, accounting for about 75%.
Specifically, the overall return of pure bonds** in 2023 is particularly prominent, with the highest increase in the same period**, with a cumulative increase of 119%。More importantly, since 2020, the overall performance of pure debt** has been outstanding, with positive returns in all years.
In the same period, although the secondary bond base also performed well, the performance of some secondary bond bases in the same period showed losses, and the maximum loss margin was more than 10%. Position data shows that the above-mentioned ** with large losses will generally remain high in 2023, with a minimum of about 15%.
The gap between the two is clear at a glance.
5) New. 
Fortune Jun found that in the context of intensified volatility in the equity market and increased investment difficulty, ordinary investors may no longer blindly pursue high returns. Pure bonds** with low volatility and strict drawdown control can meet the needs of investors who want to "hedge risks in the short term and increase in value in the long term".
Among them, the ABC Golden Quarter Three-month Holding Period Originated Bond (Class A**020583: Class C**020584) under ABC Huili** is about to be issued, and its characteristics are very prominent
First of all, it is pure debt**, which invests in bonds at least 80%, mainly investing in liquid financial instruments such as interest rate bonds and credit bonds with a credit rating of not less than AA+.
Secondly, it is highly defensive, and pure debt does not invest in weighted assets such as convertible bonds, exchangeable bonds, etc., and is less affected by fluctuations and is relatively defensive. Historical data shows that the cumulative yield of pure bonds** in the past ten years is generally better than that of the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period, and it has more advantages in volatility and maximum drawdown.
Again, the holding period is flexible. The three-month holding period takes into account the potential profitability and liquidity, and can be redeemed at any time after the expiration of the three-month holding period, and the redemption rate is 0.
Finally, the rates are lower. Compared to others**, the overall rate of pure debt** is lower. Among them, the management fee rate is 02% with a hosting rate of 005%, and the highest subscription fee is only 03%。
One more point, Fortune Jun wants to emphasize that the proposed manager is Shi Xiangming, who has 23 years of experience in the industry and more than 17 years of investment experience, and is a very rare "double ten" manager in the industry. She has worked as a bond researcher at a brokerage firm and a fixed income manager of the company, and is currently the deputy investment director of ABC Credit & Investment Corporation. The management is mainly based on bonds, and the bond-based products under management maintain low volatility, bringing a good investment experience to holders in the medium and long term.
As of the end of 2023, Shi Xiangming is in charge of 5** (classified separately), as one of the representative products of his bond base, ABC Permanent Profit Enhancement Bond** has a cumulative yield of 86 since he took office on February 6, 201257%, significantly outperforming the performance benchmark for the same period, and the maximum drawdown in the past three years is only -143%。
The goal is never far away, step by step, day by day. Just give it your all, and leave the rest to time. This classic line is also from the hit drama "Flowers", hoping to help our investment.
Are you ready as a prudent investor?