Recently, about the central bank's interest rate cut, many friends have sent me private messages. Q: Should I buy a house? My answer to that is to wait.
According to statistics, mortgage interest rates in 20 cities form an echelon and have several important characteristics.
First, the mortgage interest rate in all cities in the country has entered the level below 4%, and even Beijing, the city with the highest mortgage interest rate, will have a mortgage interest rate of 42% reduced to 395%。
Second, the cities with the lowest mortgage interest rates can even do 345%。Just on February 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the national banks to announce the latest loan market ** interest rate LPR, and the one-year LPR remained at 345 unchanged, 5-year LPR cut by 25 basis points, from 42 to 395。In this way, this adjustment is non-existent. Symmetrical interest rate cut is also the largest drop since 2019, the country has injected a strong impetus into the market on the third working day after the holiday, indicating that the resolute attitude and the relief of the situation will have a profound impact on China's economy, currency and property market. In the meantime, the state can only play a role in reducing interest rates.
According to the People's Bank of China's 2023 financial data statistics report, as of the end of December, China's broad money M2 balance was 29227 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97%。This means that everyone is interested in the economy. If the expectation of good is weak, they have deposited money in the bank, then there will be more and more money in the bank, and less and less money will be circulating in the market, and the economy will run slowly, which our country does not want to see. Therefore, the state has always emphasized stimulating consumer demand. So how to pull demand? It is to let the people's money be taken out of the bank to spend, so that the people realize that they can't get much interest for saving money. This rate cut is also a strong effort by the country to stimulate economic recovery, and I think the first interest rate cut in 2024 has paved the way for the subsequent economic recovery.
I have always emphasized that China's property market is policy, and I think there will be interest rate cuts in the future, and the exact amount of interest rate cuts depends on the reversal of the economic situation. Since China's property market is a policy-based one, interest rate cuts are a means and a regulatory tool. I am optimistic that many people interpret this interest rate cut as China's economy is not good, the pressure on housing loans is high, and some people interpret it as housing prices are about to skyrocket, I think this is not right, because with the country's regulation and control, there are both domestic factors and foreign factors. The domestic factors I just said, the foreign factors are actually the big power game, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates, and we have been cutting interest rates, this is actually a game between countries, and it has reached a white-hot level in 2024, it depends on the water can carry to the end. Before the U.S. interest rate hike, there was a lot of hot money flowing into the United States, and the U.S. ** was actually unable to repay the debt crisis caused by the interest rate hike. That is, what we call ultimate. It's like you'll be eaten by yourself.
In the same way, my country cut interest rates, and chose to announce the interest rate cut on the third working day after the end of the new year, which also shows that my country is not comfortable under the game, because the interest rate cut means a decrease in bank income, and I don't need to say more about who the bank represents. At the same time, due to platform restrictions, I will not talk about them in detail.
Here, the United States will usher in a new election in 2024. At the same time, nearly 40 countries around the world will also usher in **. Therefore, this year is an extraordinary year, China's property market has never been a few people singing about the decline, or a few unscrupulous intermediaries instigating people to buy a house can determine its direction. China's property market is not the same as the property market of any country, because China's national conditions and other countries' national conditions are also different, China has its own unique path of development, you are just like the two sessions held in China every year, the majority of representatives have offered suggestions and put forward various valuable opinions, which does not reflect the superiority of our system? Therefore, a period has a development direction for a period, and a stage has a development task for a stage. Just like the reform of the tax sharing system implemented in our country at the beginning, to the later three to one reduction and one supplement, and then to the first establishment and then the break proposed by the Politburo on December 8 last year, this is a decision made by our country in order to regulate the economy and regulate real estate. Therefore, we should not be blinded and not listen to the wind, but we must have our own independent judgment and have a precise knot for national policies.
Finally, my suggestion is that the central bank will cut interest rates, but the intensity may not be too great, first-tier or strong second-tier buyers can see the house, such as the third or fourth-tier buyers need to wait a little longer, because this year's Xiaoyuan Village classmates will arrive, and the specific can not spread to the third- and fourth-tier cities, so it is necessary to be cautious.