Poster News reporter Zhou Lingfeng reports.
Japan's GDP is getting worse, but Japan's ** is soaring, why is the Japanese economy "frequent"?
On the 15th local time, according to Japan's Kyodo News Agency on February 15**, Japan's nominal gross domestic product in 2023, that is, nominal GDP, will be 42,106 trillion US dollars, falling to the fourth place in the world. Germany, which has been located in Japan for many years, will have a nominal GDP of about 4 in 20234 trillion US dollars, ranking more than Japan. This is also the second time that Japan has lost its position as the world's third largest economy after being overtaken by China in 2010, falling to fourth.
In sharp contrast to the Japanese economy, it is Japan's soaring progress. As of February 22, the Nikkei was as high as 39,157 points, breaking through the all-time high of 38,957 points 30 years ago.
People often say that ** is a barometer of the economy, but in Japan there is a strange phenomenon of "one after another, one after another, and one after another", is it contradictory?
Nikkei 225 week k.
Overseas capital speculation has led to Japan's ***
As early as the beginning of 2023, Warren Buffett, founder of Berkshire Hathaway, emphasized in an interview with the Nihon Keizai Shimbun in Tokyo that he is optimistic about Japanese stocks and will consider increasing his investment in Japanese stocks. He has increased his stake in Japan's top five trading companies to 74%, and said it was Berkshire Hathaway's largest investment outside the United States. The five major trading companies are: Itochu Corporation, Marubeni, Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsui & Co., and Sumitomo Corporation.
It is understood that from the first trading day of 2023 to February 20, 2024, for more than a year, the stock prices of Japan's five major general trading companies will be in the red: Mitsubishi Corporation**12731%, Mitsui & Co.**7118%, Sumitomo Corporation**6997%, Marubeni**6918%, ITOCHU Corporation**6422%。
Warren Buffett's investment in Japan** has triggered a lot of overseas funds to follow the trend of speculation, and the funds that are currently flowing into the five major general trading companies** have not stopped so far. According to data from the Tokyo ** Stock Exchange, in the first trading week of February (5-9), overseas investors** 366.3 billion yen (175.RMB 8 billion), which is a net ** for six consecutive weeks.
The reason for the decline in GDP instead of growth: the yen has fallen against the dollar.
Looking back at Japan's GDP figures, Japan's GDP hit a record high in 2023 against the backdrop of Japanese prices**, but due to the continuous depreciation of the yen in recent years, it has fallen sharply after being converted into US dollars, and has fallen to the fourth place in the world.
The yen has been hovering around 150 yen against the dollar for some time. Daisaku Ueno, chief foreign exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley**, said, "Once U.S. interest rates start to fall, the dollar will depreciate, and this macro expectation has not changed." On the other hand, he believes that the yen will remain weak against the dollar for the time being, "which could approach the 151 dollar touched in 2022."90 yen level".
If Japan's total GDP is calculated in yen, its total GDP is still about 5% higher than the previous year7%, but against the background of the depreciation of the yen, if measured in dollars, GDP decreased by 12%。Thus, the key issue is the exchange rate.
According to relevant data, in January 2022, 1 dollar can be exchanged for 115 yen, and in December 2023, 1 dollar can be exchanged for 150 yen. It is not difficult to find that in two years, the yen has lost 24% of its value. Japan's Kyodo News quoted economic experts as saying that Japan's financial policy has led to a sharp depreciation of the yen and Japan's economy has been sluggish for a long time, which is the main reason why Japan's nominal GDP has been surpassed by Germany.
Japan is the world's third or fourth largest economy and an important economic and trade partner of China, and the trend of Japan's economy has a great impact on the world economy and China's economy. Zhang Jifeng, a second-level researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and executive vice president of the National Association of Japanese Economics, said that looking forward to the future, it is difficult for the growth rate of the Japanese economy to increase for a long time, but it still ranks among the top five in the world, and its economic strength is still not to be underestimated. Japan's finances will not collapse, and the reforms will continue, which will promote high-quality economic development.
Part of the data and content is integrated with Xinhua News Agency, China Economic Net, The Paper, Daily Economic News, etc. ）