Zhang Zhongmou was unexpected, and foreign media warned that greater challenges were approaching in the future
In the bright starry sky of the global chip manufacturing industry, TSMC was once the brightest star cast by industry giant Zhang Zhongmou. But who would have thought that shortly after the semiconductor giant retired, TSMC fell into an unprecedented whirlpool.
The glory of the past, the change of the present.
With its unique foundry business model and unrivaled manufacturing technology, TSMC has quickly become a dominant force in the global foundry industry since Zhang Zhongmou's founding, and even high-tech giants such as Apple, Huawei, Qualcomm and NVIDIA have taken advantage of it. However, in recent years, the direction of TSMC's development has undergone amazing changes.
TSMC's performance data released this year is like a drama of ups and downs, and the December 2023 financial report shows that TSMC's performance fell 144%, down 84%, a staggering drop. For the full year, TSMC's sales fell by 4 percent year-on-year5%, showing a downward trend as a whole; With TSMC's 15-series iPhones powered by TSMC's 3nm process chips, the company's sales share increased by 6% in the third quarter, but even then it is difficult to reverse the decline.
What's even more alarming is that TSMC's utilization rate has dropped dramatically, with the legendary 5 4nm process utilization rate only 80%, while the 7nm process utilization rate is less than half. This grim reality forced TSMC to slow down the overall pace of production expansion, and even notified its main equipment manufacturer, ASML, to postpone shipments. Due to market changes, the planned acquisition of EUV lithography equipment has also been temporarily postponed, which will undoubtedly greatly weaken TSMC's leading position in the field of high-end manufacturing technology.
New developments in the international competitive environment.
At the same time, the international market situation has changed radically: ASML has changed its approach and reached an agreement with Samsung South Korea to purchase 50 EUV lithography tools over a five-year period and collaborate on the establishment of an R&D center in South Korea, while giving Intel the right of first refusal to negotiate next-generation EUV technology. Wait until 2025.
In contrast, the situation in China shows a completely different trend. The demand for ASML DUV lithography machines in Chinese mainland is unprecedentedly high, with a sales share of 46% in the mainland market in the third quarter of 2023, with annual sales of more than 60 billion yuan, fully demonstrating the vitality of China's chip industry chain. In particular, it is worth mentioning the revival of Huawei's self-developed Kirin chip, whose performance has reached the 7nm level according to multiple sources, and this is completely dependent on the production of the domestic industrial chain. Kirin chips are not only diverse, but also the production capacity is constantly improving, which shows that China's chip industry is taking a new leap.
The future of the domestic microchip industry.
In the context of the increasingly mature domestic chip industry chain, more and more Chinese companies have begun to choose"Self-renewing domestic products", and gradually reduce its dependence on external ** businessmen, with the shrinking of China's chip production capacity, TSMC is also facing orders from American companies.
In this environment, Chinese companies are moving forward: local fabs led by SMIC are accelerating their expansion, and SMIC alone has built four new production bases. We are witnessing the arrival of a new era, where China's chip industry is becoming more independent, expanding in scale, and gradually increasing its influence in the international market.
TSMC's plans to build a factory in the United States are likely to fail: despite the 40 billion yuan investment, with the reduction of subsidies and the implementation of new regulations, the American factory will become a big burden for TSMC, which could drag down TSMC's development.
Internal trust and expectations.
In short, TSMC is currently experiencing unprecedented challenges, which not only shows the fierce competition in the global chip industry, but also demonstrates the tenacious vitality and far-reaching development prospects of China's chip industry. "Even if TSMC is a toddler, domestic companies will not be discouraged, but will have the opportunity to catch up and reach the forefront of technology They are seizing the opportunity and moving to the forefront"。As the saying goes:"It is darkest before dawn, but the light will come. I firmly believe that on this hopeful basis, the domestic chip industry will enter a glorious era. "