There are no miracles, only ten years.
Text |Zhang Jingbo
The Japanese, in a hurry!
Not long ago, the president of Sony Motors complained in public: Chinese trams have no technology, and they will only make the display screen bells and whistles.
Another bigwig, Akio Toyoda, said surprisingly a few years ago: the more electric cars, the more carbon dioxide will be.
The statements of the Japanese car bosses are arrogant and mixed with more panic.
[Chinese car, another day].
More than 100 years ago, the coachmen had the same arrogance.
On the streets of London, when cars first appeared on the streets, they looked at this monster roaring past them, smoking smoke and laughed loudly:
A car without the sound of horses' hooves does not call a car!
However, in just a dozen years, they were eliminated from history.
Under the bluff of the Japanese car tycoons, they can't hide their panic about new things.
In the past 2023, this kind of panic is particularly cruel and engraved into the bone marrow for the Japanese auto industry.
Since the 80s of the last century, surpassing the United States and becoming the world's No. 1 company, the automobile industry has become the cornerstone of the Japanese economy and the pride of the Japanese people.
But this glory will be attacked by the Chinese in 2023.
Relevant data show that this year, China's automobile exports reached 4.91 millionIt surpassed Japan and became the world's largest exporter of automobiles for the first time.
In terms of volume alone, it seems that we are exporting less than 500,000 units more than Japan, but what is scary is the growth trend.
From 2008 to 2020, China's automobile exports have hovered between 500,000 and 1 million for more than ten consecutive years. But since 2021, it has been racing at great speedNearly 5 times growth in 3 years!
The following picture vividly reflects the cold encountered by the opponent.
Since 2021, China's auto exports have surpassed the three major auto powers such as South Korea, Germany, and Japan in a row.
2021 is also the starting point of the explosion of electric vehicles.
The biggest driver behind the rise of Chinese automobiles in the past three years is electric vehicles.
Even more striking than the sales growth is China's control of the EV chain.
Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows that China has absolute dominance in the electric vehicle industry chain.
In the figure below, the red column represents China, and it can be seen from the figure that China has great advantages in terms of raw materials, lithium batteries and vehicle production.
In particular, China produces more than 3 4 lithium batteries in the world, and batteries are one of the core components of electric vehicles.
The strong industrial chain provides fertile soil for China's electric vehicle technology research and development.
In the three years of the epidemic, industrial exchanges around the world have experienced a short interruption. Until 2023, when order is restored, the auto industry giants in Europe and the United States suddenly discovered:
The Chinese car companies they once despised have been reborn!
In 2023, at the Shanghai Auto Show, representatives of Japanese car companies knelt on the ground and measured the size of the Hongqi car with a tape measure, which made many people sigh.
Only ten years ago, we were still looking up to Western car companies.
At that time, although China's auto industry had developed for decades, it was still difficult to break through the Western technical barriers of traditional fuel vehicles such as engines and gearboxes.
In just ten years, the situation has changed dramatically, and Chinese car companies have become the object of Western learning.
Since 1885, when German engineer Carl Benz built the first automobile, the world's automobile industry has experienced ups and downs and countless changes of power in the past 100 years.
However, like Chinese automobiles, in a short period of time, such a dramatic reversal may be the first time.
There are no miracles, only ten years.
Any miracle, on the surface of a momentBehind it is actually a decade, or even decades, of long-term work.
People who can't see clearly always think that miracles are instantaneous, and they are also accustomed to thinking when looking at problems.
At the beginning of 2024, when the car in the world soared, you wrote an article worriedly and calculated an account for Cialis:
In the past five years of joining hands with Huawei, Cialis has suffered a huge loss of 15 billion yuan ......
This is ostensibly a cry for Cialis, but in fact, it is a question of China's electric vehicle money-burning model, but it has completely forgotten:
Tesla lost money for 17 years in a row before making its first profit in 2020! During this period, Musk has been struggling with life and death, and has been on the verge of bankruptcy several times.
If you want to wear a crown, you must bear its weight.
The development of the global industrial chain, especially the asset-heavy industries such as automobiles and semiconductors, has never been a dinner party, but a bloody war.
Putting aside time and upfront costs, and only focusing on short-term profits, is obviously the biggest misunderstanding of the industry.
Samsung Semiconductor, before making its first profit, experienced a 13-year loss, during which it lost all its equity capital.
Later, after two suicidal countercyclical investments in the 90s and the beginning of this century, he defeated his opponents and ascended to the throne of the world.
China's photovoltaic industry, in the past 20 years, has also experienced countless cruel industrial cycles, losses and losses, before it rolled out of the world's first place today.
High-speed rail, before it became the business card of Made in China, was once questioned by many people because of its large investment and losses. Today, everyone enjoys the convenience and efficiency of high-speed rail, and no one is arguing about this topic anymore.
Like photovoltaic and high-speed rail, the rise of China's electric vehicles is by no means a day's work, but a long-distance strategic attack.
As early as 1992, the famous scientist Qian Xuesen put forward forward-looking suggestions to the country:
Skip gasoline and diesel and go straight to the tram!
This suggestion was too advanced for China, which was still a toddler at that time.
And because of this, it wasn't until years later that it really turned into concrete action. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology Review (MIT) has systematically sorted out the history of the rise of electric vehicles in China.
In the opinion of this article, China's vigorous promotion of the electric vehicle industry stems from a consensus:
When it comes to internal combustion engine innovation, China will never be able to surpass the traditional automakers in the United States, Germany, and Japan.
In 2001, China** took steps to invest in related technologies. Electric vehicles are included in the five-year plan and the "863" major scientific and technological projects.
Six years later, in 2007, Wan Gang, an automotive engineer who had worked at Audi in Germany for ten years, was appointed minister of science and technology, and China's electric vehicles pressed the accelerator button.
Since 2009, China** has begun to provide financial subsidies to the electric vehicle industry.
With the strong support of policies, China's electric vehicle industry has begun to take off. First of all, BYD and CATL made breakthroughs in batteries and vehicles.
Then, in 2014, the new car-making forces represented by NIO, Xiaopeng and Ideal stepped onto the stage of history.
During this period, China's electric vehicles have faced a lot of skepticism.
In September 2011, at the China Automobile Industry Development Forum, BYD was bombarded by everyone, and some experts were indignant"The country is so radical in the development of electric vehicles, BYD is responsible! ”
The implication is that BYD has led the automotive industry astray to electric vehicles.
Outside the venue, criticism of electric vehicle fraud and huge losses was endless. At that time, BYD and the electric vehicle industry were embattled.
Talking about this history, BYD founder Wang Chuanfu choked up and cried several times.
Although it was very difficult and even tragic along the way, Wang Chuanfu and his industrial companions have persevered and have not given up.
Finally, the explosion of electric vehicles in 2023 came.
Today, BYD has become one of the world's top ten automakers and has made a lot of money. As a representative of the new car-making forces, Ideal also achieved profitability for the first time.
Even Cialis, which has been ridiculed for a huge loss of 15 billion in five years, has also increased its revenue sharply and is about to usher in a profit inflection point in the first quarter.
[The Great Miracle Has Just Begun].
Although China's electric vehicles will explode in 2023, the miracle that belongs to it may have just begun.
Electrification of vehicles is only the first halfIntelligence is the ultimate goal of the future.
At the beginning of February, Huawei Wenjie officially launched the mapless NCA intelligent driving pilot assistance function that does not rely on high-precision maps and can be opened nationwide.
Prior to this, most manufacturers' intelligent driving technology was promoted according to the map and opened in a limited number of cities.
Huawei has taken the lead in popularizing intelligent driving technology across the country.
China's auto industry, which has worked for Europe and the United States for decades, has never had much say. Until the emergence of BYD, ideal, and Huawei.
For traditional car companies, the most terrifying thing is not the electrification of automobiles, but the terrifying iteration speed of intelligent driving technology.
With the blessing of AI large models, automotive intelligent driving technology is advancing by leaps and bounds. According to the data disclosed by Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei Device BG:
Huawei ADS20 can now iterate once every 5 days.
At the Shanghai Auto Show, foreign car companies were amazed to see the progress of Chinese car companies after three years of the epidemic. Today, the progress of China's automobile industry in intelligent driving technology is measured in days.
In fact, even an upstart electric car like BYD was unprepared for the terrifying iteration speed at the beginning.
Just a year ago, Wang Chuanfu once said: Unmanned driving is!
A year later, BYD actively embraced intelligent driving technology, invested more than 4,000 engineers, and was almost the largest autonomous driving R&D team in the industry.
Some people are striving to be the first, while others are clinging to old ideas.
Not long ago, the person in charge of a traditional car company poured a basin of cold water on domestic new energy vehicles:People (foreign brands) haven't started yet, they are waiting and seeing, looking for the best time.
The implication is that once multinational car companies act, they will crush Chinese car companies with the resources and markets they have at their disposal in the world.
There's nothing wrong with that, but it misses a more essential point:
Today, the competition in the automobile industry is no longer a single resource and market PK, but more and more like the consumer electronics industry
The speed at which technology is iterating.
In this regard, the new car-making forces are almost a dimensionality reduction blow to the old forces.
The words of Izumi Kawanishi, president of Sony Motor Corporation of Japan, vividly represent the traditional thinking of car manufacturing. He once complained in a public forum:
Chinese trams have no technology and only make the display screen bells and whistles.
Ironically, Japanese automakers are in fact one of the earliest pioneers of the global electric vehicle industry, with the Nissan Leaf once again being the world's best-selling electric vehicle.
In the field of autonomous driving, Japanese car companies are also strong, with a large number of technology patents.
However, sticking to traditional fuel vehicles and car-building thinking eventually buried their leading edge in the era of electric vehicles. Until not so long ago, Akio Toyoda was shelling trams:
In the future, electric vehicles will account for only 30% at most, and the rest of the market will be divided between hybrids, hydrogen fuels and fuel vehicles!
In the face of the slap, in the past 2023, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has reached 316%。In the last two months, the penetration rate exceeded 40%.
The light boat has crossed the Ten Thousand Mountains!
Not long ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with a number of ministries and commissions, officially released the first international standard for autonomous driving test scenarios, indicating that China's autonomous vehicles have entered a new stage represented by L3 and L4.
In the first half of car electrification, Chinese car companies have already created a miracle.
And in the second half of intelligence,The bigger miracle of Chinese car companies may have just begun.
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