This article**: Times Weekly Author: Shi Hao.
When the tide recedes, it is only known who is swimming naked.
The popularity of new energy has given birth to a large number of star managers, but in the past year or so, the stock price of a large number of new energy companies has been cut in half, and by the end of 2023, Trina Solar's share price has increased from 88The high point of 84 yuan fell to less than 30 yuan, and LONGi Green Energy, CATL, and Aiko shares also fell sharply.
Among them, GF Zheng Chengran will lose more than 40% of its products in 2023, compared with the previous highest asset management scale of nearly 50 billion yuan, as of the end of 2023, Zheng Chengran has shrunk by 30 billion yuan in more than two years under the premise of increasing the number of management products.
The scale of assets under management shrank by 30 billion.
At the beginning of his promotion to ** manager in May 2020, GF ** arranged for Zheng Chengran to cooperate with Liu Gexiang and Sun Di respectively to jointly manage GF Xinxiang flexible configuration and GF high-end manufacturing, with the trend of new energy, the two products achieved % performance growth in 2020, ranking in the top 5% of the industry.
At the beginning of 2021, GF Xinfa Xingcheng Mixed and GF Chengxiang Mixed Two**, with a total fundraising scale of more than 18 billion yuan, with Sun Di and Zheng Chengran jointly serving as the ** managers. As of the end of the first quarter of that year, the total scale of products that Zheng Chengran participated in had reached 48.3 billion yuan.
After the second quarter of 2021, Zheng Chengran gradually managed ** alone, and Liu Gexiang and Sun Di successively stepped down as the ** managers of GF Xinxiang flexible configuration and GF high-end manufacturing.
In 2022, GF** issued two new products for Zheng Chengran, namely GF Growth Momentum Three-Year Holding Hybrid and GF New Energy Select**, with an initial fundraising amount of 357.9 billion yuan, 8800 million yuan, in the same year, Zheng Chengran and Tian Wenzhou, another ** manager of GF, were jointly responsible for the mixed operation of GF's new growth momentum.
However, while the number of takeovers is increasing, the scale of Zheng Chengran's management products has been shrinking, compared with the peak of nearly 50 billion in 2021, and at the end of 2023, the scale of products managed by Zheng Chengran is only 1866.2 billion.
Among them, represented by GF high-end manufacturing, after Sun Di stepped down in August 2021, the ** same year.
In the third and fourth quarters, the share held remained basically unchanged, and the share held at the end of the year was 547.3 billion copies, with a scale of 182$4.5 billion; In 2022, GF high-end manufacturing will lose 2270%, under the premise that the share held at the end of the year still exceeded 5.1 billion, the scale fell to only 13 billion yuan.
In the past year, GF high-end manufacturing has failed to make a profit for four consecutive quarters, with an annual loss of more than 40%, although the product share at the end of the year is still 5.1 billion, but the scale is only less than 8 billion yuan, and the net value of the unit has also increased from 2 in a year6 fell to 15 up and down.
Heavy holdings, the more you fall, the more you buy.
There are not a few managers who bet on new energy in the public offering, but this cannot be the explanation for Zheng Chengran's many products to be at the bottom of the same category.
Taking GF high-end manufacturing ** as an example, it can be found that Zheng Chengran's high losses are not accidental. According to the time node, before August 2021, the product was jointly managed by Sun Di and Zheng Chengran, assuming that Sun Di was the main person in charge of the product before, then after the third quarter, the new heavy stocks in his holdings can better reflect Zheng Chengran's investment style.
Observing the holdings of GF high-end manufacturing ** after the end of the third quarter of 2021, it can be found that GF high-end manufacturing ** heavy stocks are extremely concentrated and have a single track, with the top ten heavy stocks accounting for more than 80% in many quarters, and all of them are listed companies in the photovoltaic industry chain. Among them, after being independently managed in the third quarter of 2021, Zheng Chengran added photovoltaic module manufacturer Trina Solar (which has long occupied about 10% of the ** position) under the premise of continuing photovoltaic as the main investment direction, holding 1898 in the quarter050,000 shares, corresponding to a market capitalization of 10 at the end of the quarter1.7 billion yuan, in the fourth quarter of the same year, Zheng Chengran increased his shareholding to 2286680,000 shares, and since then, it has continued to increase its position, and by the end of 2023, it has exceeded 27 million shares.
However, Trina Solar's share price has continued to fall to less than $25 since it approached a high of $90 in 2022, and as of the last trading day of 2023, Trina Solar*** is only 2952 yuan shares, only one-third of which is from the peak. Corresponding to the market value of Trina Solar held by GF High-end Manufacturing**, compared with the highest holding value of 1.8 billion yuan at the end of 2021, after adding nearly 10 million shares before and after, by the end of 2023, the relevant market value is only less than 800 million yuan.
Zheng Chengran previously said that the upstream silicon material of photovoltaic has soared, while the downstream installed capacity data is growing beyond expectations, which means that the cost resistance of the industrial chain is strong, and once the upstream ** falls in the later stage, the demand and performance will also be stronger.
However, the magnitude of photovoltaic modules far exceeded Zheng Chengran's expectations. According to Infolink Consulting statistics, in 2023, the domestic 182mm PERC single-sided module will be reported at 09 yuan - 108 yuan watts, topcon components***093 yuan-115 yuan watts, about half of the previous year's data.
Regarding the overall price reduction trend and future development prospects of the industry, a reporter from Time Weekly sent an email interview to Trina Solar, but has not received a reply so far.
In addition, Zheng Chengran has repeatedly said that he attaches great importance to the winning rate in investment to control investment risks, and will only take heavy positions when the certainty is relatively high. He believes that if an industry has maintained rapid growth in demand for two or three consecutive years, then there is a high probability that a large amount of industrial capital will pour into the supply side, resulting in the industry pattern from "undersupply" to "oversupply", which will then lead to a phased production capacity over the remaining ** war, resulting in a double kill of the company's profitability and valuation. When you capture such an inflection point information, you will choose to leave the market in stages.
However, in reality, Zheng Chengran is buying more and more, which is not consistent with his claimed investment philosophy.
Trina Solar is not alone in a similar situation, and a similar story is repeated in JA Solar's investment. Since the third quarter of 2021, GF high-end manufacturing** began to gradually** JA Technology, with a heavy position of 28.37 million shares in the quarter, and in the following half a year, Zheng Chengran gradually sold about 10 million shares at the high point of the stock price, and after June 2023, the share price of JA Technology entered a rapid ** range, Zheng Chengran did not choose to take profit or reduce positions from a mesoscopic perspective and investment certainty, but continued to increase his holdings, and in 2023, Zheng Chengran increased his holdings of JA Solar Technology from 21 million shares at the beginning of the year to 38 million shares.
In GoodWe, Hengdian East Magnetic and other heavy stocks, Zheng Chengran has a heavy position bet on a single company and can not take profit in time, and many of its management ** due to the similar position list and the pace of position adjustment, also have similar problems.
Regarding the future development trend of the photovoltaic industry, Wang Chengyang, senior investment manager of Kuwang Investment, told Times Weekly that although in 2023, the scale of new photovoltaic installed capacity will increase significantly, but due to factors such as technology iteration, capacity expansion, and continuous industrial chain products, industry competition has gradually intensified. In this context, the operating rate and inventory of enterprises have been affected, the elimination of backward production lines has accelerated, and the construction progress of some new production capacity has slowed down. In the current competition, high-cost backward production capacity may face greater operating pressure, while enterprises with technical, cost and financial advantages have relatively strong anti-risk ability. Wang Chengyang believes that when the industry's production capacity is cleared and the industrial chain stabilizes, relevant enterprises will usher in a new round of growth opportunities.