Economic Observer reporter Zheng ChenyeAs soon as the performance express report came out, the stock price "flash crashed", what happened to the former "Yao Mao" Pien Tze Huang?
On January 31, Zhangzhou Pien Tze Huang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. *** 600436SH **Abbreviation: Pien Tze Huang) released the 2023 annual performance report: According to the company's preliminary accounting, Pien Tze Huang will achieve an operating income of about 100 in 20233.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1542%；The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was about 278.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1259%；Achieved a deduction of non-net profit of 284.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1489%。
The reporter noted that according to the performance forecast, if there are no accidents in the follow-up, 2023 will become a key year for Pien Tze Huang's revenue to exceed "10 billion" for the first time.
At the same time, in the announcement, Pien Tze Huang attributed the performance growth in 2023 to the strengthening of market planning and the expansion of sales channels, which led to the increase in the company's sales revenue, as well as the increase in operating profit due to the increase in sales of its core products Pien Tze Huang and Pien Tze Huang brand Angong Niuhuang Pill.
Unprecedented opportunity. "After the announcement of the 2023 performance report, some investors commented on it in the stock bar. However, the reality of the market is that Pien Tze Huang's stock price opened on the same day, and it hit the fall limit many times during the session, and the trading volume increased to 139.4 billion yuan.
sharesValence "flash crash".
After the opening of the market on January 31, Pien Tze Huang's stock price crashed "diving", and hit the day's limit price of 197 near noon56 yuan shares.
Subsequently, Pien Tze Huang issued an "Announcement on the First Quarter Performance of 2024" with an obvious "positive" signal at the node of ** at noon on the same day.
The company said in the announcement: "During the beginning of 2024, Zhangzhou Pien Tze Huang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. *** hereinafter referred to as "the company") product sales momentum is improving, the market is showing a strong sales trend, and the company has successfully achieved a 'good start', after the company's preliminary accounting, it is expected that in the first quarter of 2024, the company can achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of no less than 25%. ”
As soon as this "good" came out, many investors immediately expressed doubts on social platforms such as stock bars: "It's so funny, the first quarter is not over yet, you have come to predict." ”
Such "doubts" are also reflected in the trend of the secondary market, as of January 31, Pien Tze Huang's share price was **9 on the same day16% to close at 1994 yuan shares, compared with 487 on July 21, 2021The most ** of 9 yuan shares has retraced nearly 60%, and the latest price-to-earnings ratio is 432 times.
Judging from historical data, the last time Pien Tze Huang achieved a net profit increase of more than 25% in a single quarter, it was in the third quarter of 2021, and in the following period, the average year-on-year growth rate of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was only 1156%。
In addition, after comparing Pien Tze Huang's latest performance** with the financial report data of the past five years, the reporter also found that the first quarter of each year is not a traditional sales season for Pien Tze Huang, and since 2019, the company has not only experienced a revenue growth rate in the first half of the year that is higher than that in the second half of the year, but also a year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter and half of the fourth quarter.
An analyst of a public offering institution in Shanghai told reporters that Pien Tze Huang's "flash crash" was affected by the collapse of the entire Chinese medicine sector on the same day, and from the perspective of valuation level, the valuation of some traditional Chinese medicine targets is still too high, and its performance growth failed to meet market expectations, which exacerbated the concerns of the secondary market. Secondly, for the traditional Chinese medicine sector, policy support has always been an important factor in its performance growth, and the current implementation of the centralized procurement policy of Chinese patent medicines, coupled with the continuous cost of medicinal materials, will have an impact on the operating performance of relevant listed companies to a certain extent.
From the perspective of the disk, the traditional Chinese medicine sector on January 31 can be described as "mourning all over the wilderness", and the Wind Chinese medicine index fell 4 on the same day87%, Yiling Pharmaceutical (002603SZ) fell 646%, Tong Ren Tang (600085SH) fell 696%, Tonghua Jinma (000766SZ) fell 775%, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317SZ) fell 687%。
The reporter noticed that as the "favorite" of the A-share public offering, since 2023, many people who used to have a heavy position in Pien Tze Huang are constantly **. Wind data shows that as of December 31, 2022, the public offering** held a total of 3,938680,000 shares of Pien Tze Huang, with a total shareholding ratio of 653%, and by December 31, 2023, this figure has fallen to 2078With 330,000 shares, the CEIBS Healthcare A managed by Gülen will also increase by 59 in 2023020,000 shares of Pien Tze Huang.
It is worth mentioning that the three ** managed by Qian Ya Fengyun, the manager of CEIBS, chose to build a position in Pien Tze Huang against the market in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a total current shareholding of 52520,000 shares.
Singlenucleus".Cons
From the single-year revenue growth rate of more than 60% in 2017, it is now difficult to reach even 20%, and it seems to be more and more difficult to continue to rely on the star product of "Pien Tze Huang" to maintain performance growth.
Judging from the company's past financial reports, the pharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical distribution business, including the production and sales of "Pien Tze Huang" products, has been contributing to ninety percent of the company's revenue in the past ten years.
In order to make the best use of this star "IP" of Chinese patent medicine, Pien Tze Huang has also created a series of "peripheral" products, such as: "Compound Pien Tze Huang Lozenge, Compound Pien Tze Huang Ointment, Compound Pien Tze Huang Hemorrhoids Ointment".
Just like the liquor companies that take "price increase" as the core means to boost performance, for Pien Tze Huang, a Chinese patent medicine that has essentially the color of high-end "consumer goods", price increase is also the key to the company's performance growth.
On May 5, 2023, Pien Tze Huang announced that the retail sales of the company's leading product, Pien Tze Huang lozenges, in the domestic market** will be raised from 590 yuan to 760 yuan, and the corresponding increase will be about 170 yuan; Overseas markets*** will be raised by about $35 accordingly. The last time the company announced an increase in the retail sales of Pien Tze Huang lozenges in the domestic market** was in 2020.
In the month when Pien Tze Huang issued the price adjustment announcement last year, Guosheng** published a research report pointing out that from 2005 to the present, the ex-factory price of Pien Tze Huang has announced a total of 14 price increases. Basically, every price increase has brought a double increase in performance and stock price to Pien Tze Huang.
After raising prices in 2017, the company's revenue increased by 28% year-on-year in 201833%, net profit increased by 41% year-on-year62% with improved profit margins. After the price increase in 2020, even under the influence of various macro headwinds, the annual revenue in 2020 increased by 1378%, net profit increased by 21% year-on-year62%, with a year-over-year increase of 23% in revenue in 202120%, net profit increased by 45% year-on-year46%, showing an accelerated state. Guosheng ** analyzed this in the research report.
Then, if the growth rate of Pien Tze Huang's series products peaks and the price-driven strategy is no longer effective, Pien Tze Huang's business performance may usher in a big impact.
Therefore, as early as 2014, Pien Tze Huang put forward the development strategy of "one core and two wings" for the development of the big health industry, and strived to build a big health industry group with pharmaceutical manufacturing and production as the leader, cosmetics, daily chemical products, health care products and health food as the two wings, and pharmaceutical circulation as the supplement.
However, judging from the revenue of the cosmetics sector, it still has a long way to go from playing the role of Pien Tze Huang's "second growth curve".
In 2022, Pien Tze Huang cosmetics' revenue and net profit will both decline, and the whole year will be 5The revenue of 1.5 billion yuan accounts for only 7% of the company's total revenue3%。In the first half of 2023, Pien Tze Huang's cosmetics revenue will continue to decline, only 27.3 billion yuan.
Although the operating performance is not satisfactory, the work of Pien Tze Huang's spin-off of the cosmetics sector and listing is progressing steadily.
As early as October 2020, the board of directors of Pien Tze Huang deliberated and passed the "Proposal on Planning the Spin-off and Listing of Holding Subsidiaries", and the preliminary preparations for the spin-off and listing of Pien Tze Huang's cosmetics business were officially launched.
In the first half of 2023, Pien Tze Huang disclosed that its holding subsidiary, Pien Tze Huang Cosmetics, was sorting out IPO due diligence issues and promoting the shareholding reform process.
It is worth noting that since 2023, Pien Tze Huang has also had a number of executives investigated: according to the Zhangzhou Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision, on August 22, 2023, Liu Jianshun, the former party secretary and chairman of Zhangzhou Pien Tze Huang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., was expelled from the party for serious violations of discipline and law; Two months before Liu Jianshun was investigated and punished, Yang Puquan, the former vice chairman of Fujian Pien Tze Huang Cosmetics, was also expelled from the party and public office for serious violations of discipline and law.
The transformation strategy of "one core and two wings" and the promotion of the spin-off and listing of Pien Tze Huang cosmetics are the leading work of Liu Jianshun during his tenure.