The core point of view——
Sell-side: Wang Sheng, deputy director and chief strategic analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan** Research Institute
Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of A-share strategy and co-director of the total research department of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute
1.The growth rate of added value related to the digital economy is expected to climb to about 13%.
2.The Internet of Things will usher in a new development.
3.Huawei's on-chain enterprises have long-term accumulated value.
4.The population structure has entered the current stage, and the rise in medical and health expenditures is the general trend, focusing on the pharmaceutical industry.
Buyer: Zheng Xiaoxi, manager of Nanfang***
1.AI changes everything
2.The opportunity for large-scale model investment is not as good as computing power and terminals this year
3.The global semiconductor boom cycle has bottomed out and is waiting to enter the starting point of the next round of upward cycle
On January 29, Wang Sheng, deputy director and chief strategic analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute, Fu Jingtao, chief analyst of A-share strategy and co-director of the total research department of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute, and Zheng Xiaoxi, manager of Southern China, shared their views on the market in CCTV's "Financial Interview" program.
Seller: The transformation of new and old kinetic energy, and the growth rate of added value in the field of digital economy is determined
Buyer: AI changes everything
Q: Which assets will be benefited by the macroeconomic trends and characteristics at home and abroad in 2024?
Wang Sheng:
The transformation of old and new kinetic energy is the key word. Globally, new momentum is gradually brewing. The vigorous development of a series of technologies such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, and humanoid robots in the United States has brought great hope for the improvement of global total factor productivity and the progress of science and technology.
China's domestic momentum is also changing, in the digital economy, in innovative drugs, consumer electronics, automobiles and other fields have a very good breakthrough and development. The growth rate of value-added related to the digital economy is expected to climb to about 13%.
The biggest investment opportunities and hopes come from the field of equity in the new economy, with a special focus on several areas, the first is the consumer manufacturing industry; The second new economic field pays great attention to the digital economy, whether it is AI or artificial intelligence, it is a branch of the digital economy, involving clothing, food, housing and transportation, and clothing is a wearable device; Food is spiritual food, such as games, e-books; Housing is a smart home, a smart home; Line is a new energy vehicle.
Fu Jingtao:
High dividends, more focus on dynamic high dividends.
In 2024, the decline in the risk-free rate is likely to exceed market expectations and break through the historical lower limit.
In the case of less elasticity of the market, technology is, of course, the first place.
The direction of many new technologies, including the combination of AI and other directions, smart home, including the Internet of Things, including other new application scenarios, may be worth tracking in the medium and long term, to explore the general direction of the target.
The entire industrial chain of new energy vehicles, including smart home, MR, and some ** chains that AIPC may be biased towards the hardware side, are distributed with a large number of excellent companies and investment opportunities with performance.
Zheng Xiaoxi:
The main line of this year is very clear, that is, AI changes everything.
Waiting for a new big item, which can relay the smartphone, will drive the global technology industry into higher growth.
Q: Everything can be AI, what are the incremental opportunities?
Wang Sheng:
Everything can be AI, and the Internet of Things will usher in a new development.
Zheng Xiaoxi:
This is the beginning of a new cycle, and investment opportunities come down to three categories.
The first type of new technology, new terminals drive new growth. With new supply comes new demand. The new direction is in the field of science and technology, which is the most attractive and worthy of continuous investment, including electric vehicles, including artificial intelligence technology-driven robots, including smart homes, and many other terminals, as well as its application continues to land.
Second, at the bottom of the cycle, the natural growth of the industry and **. If it can be superimposed with new technologies, the cycle will be stronger.
Third, relatively strong counter-cyclical attributes, for example, in the field of memory chipsQ: How should I choose high-dividend dividend assets and technology growth stocks?
Fu Jingtao:
Choose one of the two and press the growth of science and technology.
For the full year, we are optimistic about high dividends. A more optimistic direction is to look in the direction of the science and technology track.
Wang Sheng:
In addition to science and technology, we should still pay attention to medicine and innovative drugs in the future. From the perspective of two to three years, an industrial trend is forming. The demographic structure has entered the current stage, and the increase in medical and health expenditure is the general trend. China's innovative drug industry still has long-term development prospects in the future.
Second, the leading companies in the traditional industry, represented by food and beverage and power equipment, will have certain opportunities in 2024.
There should be more opportunities in 2024 than in 2023.
Q: This year is the first year of the outbreak of AIPC, how to allocate the investment opportunities on the track?
Zheng Xiaoxi:
The AI industry chain is divided into four parts: computing power, models, applications, and terminals. AIPC is in the terminal, and this year it is more optimistic about AI computing power and AI terminals.
The opportunity for large-scale model investment is actually inferior to computing power and terminals this year.
When it comes to investment, it is mainly concentrated in two lines. First, there are some companies that make some parts and components, and the technical barriers are not so high; Second, there are some independent and controllable PC industry chains based on Hongmeng PC.
Q: Will the thematic investment opportunities in Huawei's industry chain continue?
Fu Jingtao:
Some of the enterprises on Huawei's chain, such targets directly related to the A** field around Huawei, actually have long-term accumulated value.
Zheng Xiaoxi:
Pay attention to investment opportunities in Huawei's industry chain.
The judgment that the global semiconductor business cycle has bottomed out and is waiting to enter the starting point of the next round of upward cycle has been further strengthened.
Q: In 2024, the incremental funds of the A** field may come from?
Wang Sheng: First, how to enter residents' personal funds is actually a policy effort to create a new environment.
Second, institutional investors, insurance funds.
Third, foreign investment may come from Europe and the United States and foreign investment from the Middle East.
A-shares have never been a market where there is no shortage of money, and when there is an opportunity to make money, money will naturally come in.
Sell-side: 2024 is a big year for technology growth-themed investments.
Buyers: Focus on industries and companies that can continue to invest in R&D and maintain a stable competitive landscape
Q: What advice do you have for stock selection in 2024?
Fu Jingtao:
2024 will be better than 2023, but 2025 will be better.
A better asset should be a dividend ratio from low to high, stable dividend expectations, and a dividend growth investment from scratch.
2024 will ultimately prove to be a great year for technology growth-themed investments.
Zheng Xiaoxi:
Investors should have confidence and faith in the continuous upgrading of technology, especially the manufacturing industry.
The Three Dimensions of Stock Picking:
The first is the competitive landscape of enterprises. For some industries and companies that can continue to invest in R&D and maintain a stable competitive landscape, more attention can be paid to them.
The second is permeability. When a new product and terminal continues to increase its penetration rate, the market space is facing several times or even higher growth.
The third point is the company's fundamentals, including the founding team and the layout of R&D.
The above are the views of the guests. **There are risks, investment should be cautious! ）
*: CCTV Finance & Economics.