In the near future, the Palestinian region is suffering from a serious humanitarian catastrophe. Israel is planning to drive out a large number of rebellious populations from northern Gaza to the south, while imposing strict military control in order to control them. This provoked an even more fierce revolt by the local population. The previous infiltration and sabotage operations by the Hamas militant group were in the ascendant.
Another direction of interest is in Lebanon. According to ** reports, Allah forces on the Lebanese border are on the move, and they are fighting fiercely with Israeli forces along the border. According to reports, Allah forces used missiles to strike the THAAD base in northern Israel and wiped out some of its troops. The Times of Israel acknowledged that Allah was using frequent long-range fire to attack bases in the northern region in Lebanon, but declined to acknowledge the soldiers' reports.
The Lebanese front is crucial, as it constantly teases Israel's fragile and sensitive nerves. According to the New York Post, Israel's Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Balkat claimed that if Allah party groups fully entered the war, then Israel would wipe the other side and supporter Iran off the face of the earth.
(Israel's Minister Balkat arrogantly declared that he wanted to wipe out Allah and Iranian supporters.) But the current situation is slapping the face)
Whether Israel can wipe the Iranians off the face of the earth, I don't know. But it is safe to say that before he takes out the Allah forces, the Jews are afraid that they will not be able to withstand the active attack in the Lebanese direction.
(The brigade commander of the 162nd Division was killed by a sneak attack at the beginning of the war.) The 162nd Division was supposed to attack Lebanon and guard the border, but it turned out to be difficult to defend itself).
First of all, things don't break out out of nowhere. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Israelis have felt that something is not right. Suspicious activities by Arabs along the border are becoming more frequent, and resistance groups in the Palestinian areas are increasingly committing acts of force. The Yankees' attention at that time was entirely in Eastern Europe, and their intelligence system was also out of order. The Jews were disappointed: they had been in contact with the top U.S. intelligence and strategic decision-makers and found that they knew nothing about the situation in the Middle East. There is not even a minimum countermeasure, ABC plan. In such a situation, the Israelites had to rely on their own efforts. Garrisoned on the Lebanese border is the 162nd Division of the Israeli Defense Forces. This division took part in a defensive exercise against Allah last year (code: Chariot of Fire). The results were very disappointing: Israel** found that it had no way to resist Allah's onslaught against the results of the exercises. The reality of the exercise now is also confirmed: Colonel Steinberg, the commander of the Nahar Brigade of the 162nd Division, was killed by a Hamas attack at the beginning of the recent war.
The U.S. military in the Middle East is now completely blank in the brain: the incompetence of the Yankees was also reflected in the early days of the recent war, which did not provide early warning at all and did not show their due role in the event of an armed conflict (although the recent supply of aircraft carriers and soldiers is currently a state of deterrence). The Jews were unhappy about this, and they had to deal with forces on all sides alone: the Jihad movement (a small but very radical Palestinian resistance faction that has now joined the Hamas operation), Hamas, Allah and the Syrian army, and the Iranians. Israel's doorstep has long been stockpiled with a large amount of ammunition by the Iranians and their ** people. Israel itself is now within the reach of these armed groups.
So now Israel has changed its surgical precision from a "small fight" to a high-intensity, large-scale, and wide-ranging military operation. Today's IDF makes extensive use of artificial AI identification methods, which use computer systems to obtain information, and then organize a large number of air forces and cooperate with ground forces to launch attacks. It is completely a change from the previous "scalpel" combat method to a "machete" method to fight in a big way. So we can see the recent large-scale Israeli assassination operations, in which the leaders of Hamas were killed in their own camps.
According to the results of last year's Chariot of Fire military exercises, the Jews found that the current stage of the war report appeared as determined by the results of the exercise. IDF combat missions on home soil have been undermined by Hamas, Allah and Iranian infiltration. Many armies have experienced delays in their wartime defense schedules and have been disrupted by influence. The Jews had to send in large numbers of infantry to maintain a patrol line, as their military positions were isolated and Israel would not be able to maintain a normal line of logistical communication if they were destroyed by Arab infiltration. A large number of regular troops should be sent to the police force to drive away the rioting populations, otherwise the army would not be able to maneuver normally.
According to Israeli military leadership, no matter how the war develops in the future, Jewish homeland will be hit by rocket strikes from Hamas and the newly joined Lebanese Allah forces (which has happened). Then people's property and lives, as well as infrastructure such as power supply and communications, will suffer. To keep these infrastructures safe, to maintain social order and stability (in order to ensure the normal safety of people's goods**), to suppress the Arab civilians who were rioting, and to evacuate the Jewish people from the areas shelled by the arrows. These have cost Israel countless energy and manpower, as well as a variety of valuable resources. The Jews are no longer as secure they have since the Yom Kippur War.
So will Allah Lebanon strike across the border or even deep into Israel? It is very likely, because they are currently concentrating their forces along the border and are continuing to exchange fire. Israel's estimate is that if the IDF had entered Lebanon first, thousands of civilians would have died on the Lebanese side; Allah's elite Einsatzgruppen will also be annihilated (but for now the Israelis find it a bit difficult to accomplish this task because they misjudged the situation). If the Jews preemptively attack Allah, they will pay the price: more than a thousand rockets fired by Allah every day, and more than 300 soldiers and civilians will be killed or seriously injured every day. (Allah does what it says, and their desire for revenge is particularly strong.)
Earlier in the article, it was said that the 162 division of the Israel Defense Forces on the border line undertook the main attack and defense of the crit military operations in the Lebanese direction. But in fact, there is an elite unit of Allah, "Radwan". They have the ability to infiltrate Israel, and are capable of inflicting heavy losses on the surrounding Israeli forces (there are also currently battles along the border where Israeli forces have been heavily damaged). And Allah forces were able to reach Jewish settlements on the northern border. The Israeli army also had to devote some of its energies to ensuring that the Jews were evacuated from the town. The 162nd Division is currently difficult to protect itself, so what is the preemptive strike to talk about?
As a result, the IDF believes that the Israeli army will not be able to guarantee the proper functioning of its logistical functions without incurring into the South Lebanese area. To penetrate Lebanon, the army must also explain this necessity to the top brass who have been nervous that Allah will definitely fight deep into Israel itself.
What is the real situation? Based on the military exercises and the current state of the war, the Israeli military leadership judged that even if they hit Lebanese territory, they would eventually withstand 45,000 rockets! This amount is only one-third of Allah's stockpile. And this is a retaliatory measure after the Jewish army has already launched a massive attack on Allah. To sum up: whether the Jews can bring American troops into the ranks or fight on their own, opening another front in Lebanon is tantamount to fighting Allah guerrillas throughout Israel proper. And the pit of this guerrilla war is so deep that the Israelis cannot win (they cannot afford the demographic losses of guerrilla warfare). This is also the reason for the frustration of the Israeli military: they have been fighting for so long and only dare to gather on the border to fight Lebanon, and do not dare to rush into the other side's strongholds to expand the war.