It is obviously an Asian country, but it is listed as a developed country in the West. Since it is a developed country, it follows closely behind the United States and is willing to be a little brother.
Now, for two consecutive years, GDP has been surpassed by another country with negative growth.
The conundrum facing Japan is that the consequences of following the United States have already appeared, and will it continue to follow the United States in the future?
According to preliminary official Japanese data, last year's GDP was converted to about 421 trillion, lower than Germany's 445 trillion.
This means that Japan, having lost its second place in the world a few years ago, has now relinquished its third place in the world.
Being surpassed is not the biggest problem, the biggest problem is the continuous GDP **.
Japan's GDP in 2021 is still 501 trillion US dollars, but in 2022, it will be **4.23 trillion US dollars, I can't think of a further ** in 2023 for 4$21 trillion. In other words, in the past 2 years, there has been a continuous ** in GDP.
In addition, on a quarterly basis, the last two consecutive quarters** have also announced that Japan has entered a technical recession.
In fact, if we look at it in the long run, Japan's GDP** seems to have become the norm. As early as 1995, Japan's GDP used to reach 555 trillion, but by 1998 it had fallen to 41 trillion.
There was a whopping 6 in 201227 trillion, but by 2015 it fell to 444 trillion.
The recent increase in Japan's nominal GDP is mainly due to the gap in the exchange rate of the US dollar and the difference in the consumption index due to the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis.
First of all, the first reason is that the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates, and the Bank of Japan is very stubborn in sticking to negative interest rates, which has led to widening interest rate differentials, and the rapid depreciation of the yen has recently fallen below 150 again.
Therefore, although the GDP in yen has increased slightly, it is ** when converted into dollars.
Secondly, the exchange rate of the euro is more stable than that of the yen, so Germany's GDP does not lose much when converted into dollars.
More importantly, Japan's inflation rate has always been low, so its contribution to nominal GDP is relatively small, but Germany's inflation rate has been relatively high in the past two years, which has directly pushed up nominal GDP, so there will be a negative growth of 0With 3%, Germany has surpassed Japan to become the third largest country in the world.
However, from Japan's own perspective, the problems facing its economic development are not limited to external factors. With the rise of emerging countries such as China, some of Japan's pillar industries are beginning to lose their edge.
In the past, Japanese manufacturing was popular all over the world, but now these industries are gradually losing market share due to competition from manufacturing powers such as China.
At the same time, Japan also lacks obvious advantages in the field of new energy and electric vehicles, which has led to its decline in terms of ***.
In addition to the problems of industrial manufacturing, the fishing industry is also a serious injury for Japan, and it is difficult for Japan's fishing industry to survive if it does not deal with nuclear sewage for a day.
In addition, Japan has almost the most aging population among developed countries. The continuous decline of the labor force not only prevents Japan from enjoying the demographic dividend, but also burdens it with an aging population.
International organizations have already made India's economy bigger than Japan's by 2026.
Japan has been following the strategy of the United States, and now it seems that it has caused a great crisis for itself, and even because of the continuous depreciation of the yen, Japan may be harvested by the United States again at any time.
What should Japan do in the future?