At a time when the situation on the peninsula is heating up, Japan suddenly wants to talk to the DPRK, and the Russian deputy foreign minister makes a surprise visit to the ROK. What are the calculations of the two sides in the interaction between Japan and North Korea? At this sensitive moment, what is the reason for the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister's visit to South Korea?
After Yoon Suk-yeol came to power, the United States, Japan and South Korea continued large-scale military exercises, and North Korea did not show weakness, frequently tested missiles in response, and stepped up interaction with Russia. Just as the situation was moving towards a showdown, an unusual event suddenly occurred. According to CCTV News on February 4**, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko made a surprise visit to South Korea a few days ago and consulted with the South Korean side on the outstanding issues between the two countries and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko.
Although Russia and South Korea are not bitter rivals, relations between the two countries are not good. Just before the visit of the Russian deputy foreign minister to South Korea, Russia and South Korea were still fighting each other in the air, and the Russian spokesman publicly accused Yoon Suk-yeol, and the South Korean also summoned the Russian ambassador to South Korea for this purpose, and the relations between the two sides were tense for a time. Under such circumstances, Russia and the ROK obviously lack an atmosphere of high-level interaction, but the Russian deputy foreign minister still visited the ROK in person, and it is obvious that there are important matters to discuss.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although South Korea also followed the example of the United States and the West to sanction Russia, it was generally restrained. Just before the visit of the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister to the ROK, the ROK side clearly reiterated that it would insist that it would not provide military assistance, including lethal damage, to Ukraine. Clearly, South Korea does not want to touch red lines on Russia's core interests. Because the ROK knows very well that Russia can directly influence the situation on the peninsula and directly point to the core interests of the ROK.
South Korea's ** Yoon Suk-yeol.
Recently, there have been frequent interactions between Russia and the DPRK, and the Russian side has even bluntly stated that it will cooperate with the DPRK in all fields, including sensitive areas, which has made the South Korean side feel nervous. Because judging from the recent unveiled ** equipment of North Korea, North Korea's military strength has been greatly improved. In the event of a real fight, North Korea's ** is in its own hands, while South Korea's own security can only be pinned on the United States. Therefore, as the situation on the peninsula is heading for a showdown, South Korea needs to create room for itself to be flexible.
It is worth mentioning that in addition to the unexpected surprise visit of the Russian deputy foreign minister to the ROK, the recent interaction between Japan and the DPRK is also very abnormal. According to Japanese media reports, on February 2, when questioned by the National Assembly, Fumio Kishida expressed his gratitude to the supreme leader of North Korea for sending a message of condolence to the Inoden Peninsula. He also expressed the hope that high-level dialogue with the DPRK can be achieved to normalize diplomatic relations between the two countries. You must know that Japan has a similar position to the United States and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula issue, and not only participated in the joint military exercises of the United States and South Korea against the DPRK, but also repeatedly expressed its support for the DPRK's missile test. Nowadays, Japan and the DPRK have shown goodwill to each other, which is quite abnormal.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
For North Korea, the main adversaries are the United States and South Korea, and there are many contradictions between Japan and South Korea. The goodwill shown to Japan could help dismantle the trilateral alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea and ease its own pressures, demonstrating North Korea's flexible diplomacy. For Japan, a show of goodwill toward North Korea could raise the asking price for South Korea. After Yoon Suk-yeol came to power, he repeatedly took the initiative to seek to repair relations between Japan and South Korea in order to unite Japan to put pressure on North Korea, for which Yoon Suk-yeol did not hesitate to make concessions on issues left over from history.
In fact, there is another important reason for the abnormal interaction between Russia, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea, and that is to prepare for Trump's return. Whether it is on the Korean Peninsula issue or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Trump and Biden have very different positions. Once Trump returns to the White House, the United States is likely to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, ease tensions with North Korea, reduce the presence of troops in South Korea, or ask South Korea for higher "protection fees", so Japan and South Korea must now leave a way out for themselves. In South Korea, a source revealed that a new round of military spending talks between the United States and South Korea has been carried out ahead of schedule, which is obviously worried that Trump will open his mouth after taking office. In Japan, U.S. media reported that Kishida is trying to find ways to contact Trump. The actual actions of Japan and South Korea have proved that they judge that Trump's return is not small.
Trump. At present, Trump and Biden have almost no opponents in the party, so the election campaign at the end of the year is likely to be a showdown between the two. Biden is now in a very bad situation, facing huge internal and external pressures on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with the emergence of internal problems in the United States. According to a poll released by the American media "CNN" on February 1, if it is carried out immediately**, Trump's approval rating will be 4 percentage points ahead of Biden.
In fact, not only Japan, South Korea, but also many allies of the United States such as Europe are also preparing for Trump's return, because Trump's diplomatic concept of "America First" will inevitably impact the relationship between the United States and its allies. Of course, we also need to be prepared for a rainy day.