The data shows that by the fourth quarter of 2023, the share of the Hongmeng system has exceeded 15%, which is only one step away from the so-called 16% life and death line. In 2024, Huawei's mobile phone will win the first place in China, exceeding the 16% life and death line, and it will completely stand.
At the same time, Huawei also officially announced the HarmonyOS Next version, that is, the Galaxy version, this is pure-blooded Hongmeng, Huawei's 100% self-developed, remove all Android AOSP**, only support pure-blood Hongmeng APP, no longer compatible with Android APP.
At present, hundreds of companies have said that they will start the development of HarmonyOS APP, and Huawei expects that 5000+ HarmonyOS native apps will be launched by this year.
Many people said that Huawei is going to fully de-Androidize and establish a mobile ecosystem that belongs to Chinese themselves, and the real three of Android and iOS are standing.
Once this system is established, it may be that other domestic mobile phones will also use the Hongmeng system to completely break up with Android, and the Chinese use China's own mobile phone system and use their own ecosystem.
Of course, the idea is very good, but in my opinion, among domestic mobile phones, except for Huawei, no one from other manufacturers should use HarmonyOS, even if HarmonyOS Next is successful, everyone will not use it.
The reason is very simple, that is, no one will be willing to become the next Huawei, once the stick of sanctions falls on itself, Huawei may be able to survive, and other manufacturers will not be able to survive.
Under the sanctions of the United States, Huawei can come up with many ways to develop other businesses when the mobile phone business is restricted, such as communication services, PCs, automobiles, servers, AI, etc.
But other domestic mobile phones are not good, everyone's business, most of them are concentrated in mobile phones, once sanctioned, there is no chip, no system, no key software, etc., it is estimated that it will only be lost.
At the same time, there are still a large number of sales in overseas markets of major mobile phone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo, such as Xiaomi mobile phones, 70%+ in overseas markets, and OPPO and vivo mobile phones, about 50% of sales in overseas markets.
Once the HarmonyOS system is used, what should these overseas users do? Do you give up the overseas market, then Xiaomi cut 70%, OPPO, vivo cut 50%, all in the domestic volume, that is tantamount to looking for death.
Therefore, even if HarmonyOS Next succeeds, domestic mobile phone manufacturers, except for Huawei, will not use it, and it is destined to be only a mobile phone system used by Huawei, and there are no other domestic mobile phone manufacturers who want to become the next Huawei.