Author: Wai Ji Declassified.
I just saw a very interesting point of view: the 10-year index bull market of A-shares may officially start! The 10-year bull market in the United States and Japan was driven by ETFs. China's ETF** size is now only equivalent to that of the United States and Japan 10 years ago, and it is now in an explosive period. Therefore, the genes of the index cow are available in China.
This conclusion is reliable, and the logic is not as simple as a long-term bull market and a large-scale index ** chicken or existing egg. Only after the black sheep of listed companies with financial fraud are cleared on a large scale, the profit and dividend effect of the index will be greatly improved, which will naturally attract bank wealth management and insurance funds to enter the market, continue to expand the scale of the index, and the long-term index bull market can be expected.
To discuss this issue, we first need to re-understand the index**.
As we all know, the pre-bull index** is the absolute protagonist. Very few active ones can outperform the index in the early stages of a bull market. In addition, the index is also an artifact.
In fact, the magic of the index is far more than that. In an ongoing bear market, the index ** is also very good. According to the statistics of the Jinxin** Evaluation Center, in the three-year bear market from 2021 to 2023, the number of indexes** with sustained positive returns over the years is similar to that of active equity**. In terms of scale, the total size of the index** is less than 40% of the active equity category**. Different seed fruiting rates vary greatly from one soil to the same soil.
For example, in 2023, nearly 800 of the 2,470 indexes** will achieve positive returns, and positive return products will account for more than 30%. The top performers are basically game, animation and media ETFs, such as 7 products with a yield of more than 50%. In addition, communication 5G, artificial intelligence, low-wave dividends, and smart cars have also performed well.
According to the data of Jinxin** Evaluation Center, the most capable non-dividend index in the index ** is none other than the big A downturn since 2021, and the money-making effect of equity ** is bleak. The dividend index** corps has achieved a positive 3-year return of 738%, the minimum return is over 15%; The top 10 performance is all over 29%, 8 have a yield of more than 30%, and the best is 4161%。In the past year, the positive return accounted for 67%, and the yield exceeded 10% accounted for 86%, 21 years of positive income products accounted for 26% of the proud record, easy to hang 99% of the active equity**.
Warren Buffett said, "By investing regularly in an index**, an amateur investor who doesn't know anything can often beat most professional investors." The answer to this sentence in the big A is that in the past 3 years, choosing the dividend index** can undoubtedly lie down and win. Warren Buffett doesn't lie to me.
It can be seen that the performance of the index** in the past 3 years has comprehensively outperformed the active equity category**. Active Equity Category** is currently about 57 trillion, the index ** has just exceeded 2 trillion. The size of the index is less than 40% of the equity category. So, does the size of this index ** mean that Big A is already on the verge of an index bull market?
We can illustrate this by comparing the simple relationship between the US and Japanese bull markets and the index**. The 2010 U.S. ETF just topped $1 trillion. For the first time in 2023, the scale of the passive ** of the United States will surpass the scale of the active **, with 13 respectively29 trillion dollars and 13$23 trillion; The Bank of Japan began to buy ETFs in 2010 and smashed into Japanese stocks, and by 2022, it has bought a total of 53 trillion yen of ETFs, and promoted the total size of Japanese stock ETFs to 187 trillion yen. Ten years of buying into the "big brother", the Bank of Japan personally bought **, which promoted the Japanese bull market.
The 10-year bull market in the United States and Japan was driven by ETFs. The difference is that the United States is driven by global funds ETFs, and Japan is driven by the Bank of Japan by smashing 5 trillion yen a year. China's ETF** size is now only equivalent to that of the United States and Japan 10 years ago, and it is now in an explosive period. Therefore, the DNA of the index bull is there in China.
In 2023, the scale of the domestic ETF market will exceed 2 trillion yuan. The scale of public and private placement** exceeds 10 trillion, referring to the super-active scale of US ETFs, which indicates that the future scale of ETFs will exceed at least 8 trillion.
So the question is, where does the 8 trillion come from? This is the key question. Solving a critical problem is to find the key to the problem first.
In fact, there is never a shortage of money, such as insurance funds and bank wealth management. There are 27 trillion yuan in bank wealth management, and there are very few investments, the reason is that the index has no money-making effect; There are 18 trillion insurance funds, and about 2 trillion are invested in ** and **. The 10-year development of the US index is inseparable from the 10-year bull market. In the final analysis, the index bull and the index have a money-making effect is the king to attract over-the-counter funds to promote a sustainable index bull market, and a market that allows investors to invest with real returns with peace of mind is the soil of the bull market.
At present, the regulatory authorities have launched a 10-year-old investigation of listed companies for fraud, in-depth inspections of companies queuing up for listing, and companies that have withdrawn their listing applications, all of which are wise moves to clear the market of black sheep and save investor confidence.
A friend from an investment bank once said that A-share fraud is systematic, for example, the first threshold for listing is 50 million net profit, but in fact, most of them cannot be reached. Many companies that can meet this standard go to the United States, those that are not enough go to Hong Kong, and those that are not enough for 20 million to 30 million will go down and go public. As a result, a bunch of fake listed companies in the market are still desperately sending, causing a bunch of landmines, and officially such a fake market is regarded by investors as Myanmar A, who would dare to come? !
Now that the supervision and control of fraudulent listed companies are strictly punished, the rest are only listed companies that can keep their own money and return investors, and the quality of the company will be greatly improved. If a feasible investor compensation system is introduced, even if you buy fake goods, you will not be afraid, and the sky-high compensation can make investors like winning the lottery, and investors' confidence will not be restored.
Here we will first insert an ad related to this:
More than 10 years ago, Jinxin developed an artifact to identify financial fraud of listed companies - Jinxin Financial Expert System. Financial fraud warnings were issued 1-2 years in advance for financial fraud cases such as Kangmei Pharmaceutical and Kangdexin. Our system can issue financial examination reports of more than 5,000 companies in seconds, determine whether a listed company has financial fraud in minutes, and provide solutions for financial institutions such as national regulators, commercial banks, insurance companies, ** companies, ** companies, etc.
At present, a considerable number of the bosses of private listed companies in the market are pondering every day how to hollow out the listed companies, and by eating and taking cards, they will unscrupulously take advantage of the listed companies and make the company's performance worse. Raising dividends and other indicators and financial audits can try to avoid the occurrence of such leaks, put a tight spell on the bosses of listed companies with bad intentions, and prevent some listed companies from going further and further on the road of rottenness.
When the dividend rate is greatly increased, the money-making effect of the index will inevitably increase, at that time there is no need to mobilize, whether insurance funds or bank wealth management will naturally invest in those listed companies with good quality dividends and returns, and most of these are the investment targets of the index, the money-making effect of the index is also rising, and the long-term index bull market can be expected.
Let's praise the regulation together, and look forward to the listed companies and the market getting better and better, and investors can get long-term peace of mind returns.