Yu Moutai's attitude is that Moutai's ability to obtain free cash flow in the future will continue to grow, Wuliangye may have a little pressure, but it will also remain stable and rise overall, Yanghe may have some small fluctuations, but the current valuation has completely expected bad things, even if the ability to earn cash flow in the future has declined, first of all, the current valuation has reflected the future bad expectations, and the other is, even if short-term fluctuations, Yanghe is not without it, in the long run, The ability to earn cash flow is definitely getting stronger.
From beginning to end, I have never had a stock price, the stock price is determined by Mr. Market, and I as an investor, I only study the fundamentals and valuation of the enterprise, that is, the ability of the enterprise to obtain free cash flow, I always believe that as long as the fundamentals of the enterprise are solid, the ability to obtain free cash flow is real, even if the current market gives a very low valuation, but in the long run, due to the gap between the risk-free rate of return and the discount rate of corporate cash flow, the water flows low, I believe in the return of value.
Wuliangye's net profit in 2023 will be around 30 billion yuan.
On January 28, at the 2023 work summary meeting of the 4th Council of Sichuan Brewery Association, Yang Yunxia, chief engineer and food safety director of Wuliangye Co., Ltd., said that in 2023, the sales revenue of Wuliangye Group Co., Ltd. will be 17709.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1389%；The total profit is 4257.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1413%；Profits and taxes 6644.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1384%, for long-term investors like us, once we know the data of Wuliangye Group, then the data of the joint-stock company can be extrapolated.
At present, it is known that the operating income of Wuliangye Group in 2023 is 17709.8 billion yuan, compared with the past Wuliangye Co., Ltd. operating income to the group's sales revenue ratio can be calculated.
In 2019, the group company achieved sales revenue of 108 billion yuan, and the operating income of the joint-stock company was 5011.8 billion yuan, accounting for 464%
In 2020, the group company achieved sales revenue of 121.1 billion yuan, and the operating income of the joint-stock company was 5732.1 billion yuan, accounting for 4733%
In 2022, the group company will achieve sales revenue of 150 billion yuan, and the operating income of the joint-stock company will be 7396.8 billion yuan, accounting for 493%
In the past two or three years, the operating income of the joint-stock company has increased year by year in the sales revenue of the group company, and we make the most conservative estimate that the operating income of the joint-stock company accounts for about 48% of the group's operating income this year, so the operating income of Wuliangye Co., Ltd. in 2023 is 177098*48%=85 billion yuan.
After calculating the net profit margin of Wuliangye Co., Ltd., we can roughly know what the net profit is.
In 2018, Wuliangye's operating income was 4003. Achieve a net profit of 1338.4 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 3343%
In 2019, Wuliangye's operating income was 50118. The net profit was 1740.2 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 3472%
In 2020, Wuliangye's operating income was 573200 million, to achieve a net profit of 199500 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 348%
In 2021, Wuliangye's operating income will be 6620.9 billion, achieving a net profit of 233700 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 3529%
In 2022, Wuliangye's operating income will be 7396.8 billion, achieving a net profit of 266900 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 36%.
Obviously, high-end products account for the overall structural growth, which makes the company's net profit margin gradually rise, and the net profit margin in the first three quarters of 2023 is 365%, according to conservative estimates, the net profit margin of Wuliangye in 2023 will be the same as that in the first three quarters, which is 36The net profit margin of 5% is 867 according to the operating income of the joint-stock company in 2023800 million yuan, the net profit of Wuliangye Co., Ltd. in 2023 will be 850 * 365% = about 31 billion yuan.
Then in 2023, Wuliangye Co., Ltd.'s operating income will be about 85 billion yuan, and the net profit will be about 31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 161%, there may be a certain error in this data, but the net profit of Wuliangye Co., Ltd. in 2023 can basically be determined to have crossed the 30 billion mark.
At present, the market value of Wuliangye is 511 billion yuan, and according to the latest data, the valuation of Wuliangye has been as low as about 16 times, and the historical average valuation of Wuliangye is 2922 times, in fact, the current valuation level of Wuliangye is only about half of the historical average, and Wuliangye's ability to obtain free cash flow can continue to grow in the future.
Moutai is still the most certain company.
2021 to 2024 is certainly the most difficult period for investors, but Moutai has maintained amazing stability, and Moutai has been **3 for the whole year in 202177%, 2022**1425%, 2023**262%, only **4 so far in 20244%, as long as ** is slightly better, Moutai can turn red in 2024, and it is not difficult for the stock price to return to 1800.
The fundamentals of Moutai really can't touch porcelain, many people say that there will be fewer people in the future, young people don't drink liquor, for Moutai, there is no impact at all, ten years ago when I first invested in liquor, I thought that the number of people who drink liquor will decrease, and the result seems to be different from what I imagined. Even if it decreases, it is difficult for people to reduce the number of people who drink Moutai because people tend to drink less and drink better. The total amount of liquor has been decreasing for so many years, but in fact, the production capacity of high-end liquor is still insufficient, and the internal structure of this industry is very serious5%, just like Ferrari cars are only 05% of the same, they basically have little to do with the market.
If your investment style seeks stability, certainty, and long-term stability for ten or twenty years, Moutai is still the best choice at the moment.
How to look at the "Pu Wu" ** upside down.
1.Affected by many factors, this year's "Pu Wu"** is indeed upside down, but this year we are confident to achieve a smooth price. Liu Yang said that the company's dynamic sales are very strong, exceeding previous expectations, and the channel destocking is very fast. At present, more than 20 regions of the company have achieved double-digit growth, and many regions have achieved growth of more than 20%. In terms of **, Zeng Congqin said that the company will deal with the problem of volume and price, maintain the balance of volume and price, not invert for a long time, and let dealers make money.
Of course, ** does have an upside down, but now the dynamic sales are good, and the upside down phenomenon will change in the short term, as for whether you believe it or not, this is the wisdom of the benevolent and the wise.
2.Suppose a most pessimistic state, in 2023, a bottle of Wuliangye wine is not sold, and the net profit is 0, so what? Could it be that the value of Wuliangye is 0?
Liquor does not expire.
Now many people say that Guojiao 1573 is degraded, because Luzhou Laojiao advertises that Guojiao 1573 can only be produced in a century-old cellar pool, because Luzhou Laojiao has not expanded production in the past many years, so his production capacity has barely increased, but in recent years, the sales volume of Guojiao 1573 has surged, and the wine comes from?
The only explanation is:
A large part of it is due to the unsalable wine that was not sold in the market after 2014-2016, so that the leadership of Luzhou Laojiao Distillery did not expect that this batch of unsalable wine came in handy in the back, but it was a good thing, in 2014, the Guojiao 1573 produced at that time was sold, and the ex-factory price may only be 500 per bottle, but after the market recovers, this part of the unsalable wine will be sold in 2018 and 2019, and the ex-factory price may reach 800 per bottle. Everyone realizes that high-end liquor is not afraid of unsalable liquor at all, it doesn't matter if it doesn't sell well in a certain year, it is stored in the warehouse, and when the market improves, it can be sold at a higher level.
Liquor is not afraid of expiration, and with the growth of time, the old wine will become more and more valuable, as long as the market improves in the future, this is not a problem, for long-term holders, for investors who buy ** is to buy the company, this money is nothing more than this year or later. Of course, not all liquor companies have this kind of strength, such as Wuliangye, Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, such high-end liquor production capacity imbalance enterprises, is not afraid of a certain year of market deterioration, as long as the future can be recovered, it is not a thing, may still be a good thing.
It doesn't matter what happens now, what happens in the future does, you need to look at the long term, not the present.