Recently, China, the United States, Japan, Germany, and India released their 2023 GDP figures. It reflects the imminent upheaval of the global economy. Among them, China's GDP is 12606 trillion yuan, about 179 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 52%γThe estimated US GDP is 2736 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25%, ranking first in the world.
In 2023, Germany's real GDP will be 445 trillion US dollars, down 03%, ranking third in the world. Japan's real GDP increased by 1 year-on-year9%, but due to the sharp depreciation of the yen, Japan's nominal GDP in dollar terms is about 4At $2,106 trillion, it slipped to fourth place in the world and was overtaken by Germany, which is also economically weak.
India's GDP is expected to reach 373 trillion US dollars, ranking fifth in the world. The year-on-year growth rate was as high as 73%, up from the previous RBI of 7%**.
It can be seen from the comparison of the GDP of China, the United States, Japan, Germany and India in 2023 that on the one hand, the gap between the first and second camps of the global economy is becoming more and more obvious, and compared with Europe and Japan, the leading edge of China and the United States is expanding. Although India leads the GDP growth rate, due to the low base of GDP, the gap between the total economic output and China and the United States is still huge.
On the other hand, in addition to the United States, Western countries such as Europe and Japan will continue to decline in the global economy due to the lack of scientific and technological innovation capabilities, and the future economic growth will be sluggish. The economic status of emerging market countries such as China and India will be greatly improved.
In the short term, the gap between the first and second camps of the global economy will continue to widen
According to the OECD and other institutions, in the next few years, the real GDP growth rate of Western countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan will be significantly lower than that of China and India, and in 2024, the real GDP growth rate of India, China, the United States and Japan will be respectively. 5% and 10%γ
The real GDP growth rate of major European countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy is below 1%, far below the global average of 14%γ
Although the GDP growth rate of the United States will decline significantly, due to its huge economic size, the leading position of the United States in the global economy will still be very consolidated in the short term.
Although India's GDP growth rate is significantly ahead, its total GDP is expected to surpass Japan and Germany in the next five years, ranking third in the world. However, due to India's current small GDP base, the gap between its economic aggregate and China will continue to widen in the next few years.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by 2028, China's economy will be 17 percent larger than India's$5 trillion, a gap equivalent to the current size of the European Union's economy. And in 2022, the economic size gap between the two is about $15 trillion.
Therefore, in the next few years, the gap between the first and second camps of the global economy will continue to widen, and the lead of China and the United States will widen compared with Europe and Japan.
In the medium to long term, the position of Western countries in the global economy will continue to decline, while emerging market countries will increase significantly
According to the IMF**, in the next five years (2023-2028), the country that will contribute the most to global economic growth will be China, accounting for 226%, and India accounted for 129%, ranking second, while the United States is only in third place, accounting for 113%γ
Goldman Sachs, an overseas investment bank, believes that by 2075, the GDP of China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt will all enter the top 10 in the world, ranking first respectively.
I. Fourth, the first.
Fifth, sixth and seventh, surpassing traditional economic leaders such as Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom, while the United States will then fall to third place. Meanwhile, India and Brazil are ranked second and eighth respectively.
The ability to innovate in science and technology will become a key driving force for economic growth
In 2008, the EU's GDP was comparable to that of the United States, and by 2023, the EU's GDP was only 65% of that of the United States.
However, due to the decline in Japan's scientific and technological innovation capabilities and industrial competitiveness, the number of the world's leading industries and enterprises is decreasing, resulting in the continued weakness of the Japanese economy, and Japan has exhausted all means to get out of the lost 30 years. In the past 10 years, due to the sharp depreciation of the yen, Japan's GDP in US dollar terms has seen a sharp **, from 6$27 trillion to $4 in 2023$21 trillion.
In terms of scientific and technological innovation, it is obvious that India has a big gap compared with China and the United States, and this will become the biggest obstacle for India to catch up with and surpass China and the United States. China's R&D investment is 16 times that of India, and India is far inferior to China in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, new energy, electric vehicles, biotechnology, aerospace, Internet and semiconductors.
In the past 20 years, the rapid development of China's economy has been inseparable from the continuous increase in China's R&D investment and the substantial improvement of scientific and technological innovation capabilities. In 2022, China's R&D investment will increase by 10% year-on-year1%, up to 30,782900 million yuan, equivalent to about 418.4 billion US dollars, second only to the United States 713.2 billion US dollars, more than the sum of the 27 countries of the European Union, ranking second in the world.
In addition, the labor cost of R&D personnel accounts for a very high proportion of the company's R&D expenses. And because China has an engineer bonus, coupled with the current exchange rate, the purchasing power of the renminbi is stronger. The labor cost of China's R&D personnel is significantly lower than that of Western countries such as Europe and the United States. Therefore, if relevant factors are taken into account, the gap between Chinese companies' R&D spending and that of the United States will narrow significantly.
The gap between China and the United States in the field of scientific research is narrowing rapidly, and China is currently in the leading position in the world in many key scientific and technological indicators or scientific and technological fields. At present, China's exports of high-tech products and electronic products occupy an absolute advantage in the world, China's number of top 500 enterprises in the world is the first in the world, the number of the world's leading industries is second only to the United States, and significantly higher than that of Japan and Europe and other countries.
The continuous improvement of scientific research and innovation capabilities will become one of the most critical driving forces for China's future economic growth, ensuring China's leading edge over Europe, Japan and India.