Under the pressure of weakening expectations, enterprises are facing new challenges in reducing costs.
On February 27, the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the "Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences") released the results of the 2023 survey on "Enterprise Costs and Local Financial and Economic Operations" in Beijing.
Researcher Fu Zhihua, chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chinese Academy of Finance and Sciences, introduced the latest survey results of enterprise costs: the cost level of Chinese enterprises will show an overall upward trend in 2023, about 1Among the more than 30,000 valid sample enterprises, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income increased from 82 in 202190 yuan, ** to 83 in the first three quarters of 202355 yuan, an increase of about 078%。
Among them, the expenses per 100 yuan of operating income of the sample enterprises increased significantly, from 13$5 increased to $146 yuan, an increase of about 815%, which is significantly higher than the cost per 100 yuan of operating income.
The survey period was from October to December last year, and the questionnaire sample covered 31 provinces across the country. This is also the eighth consecutive year that the Academy of Finance and Sciences has released a cost reduction research report.
In addition to the above-mentioned sample enterprise survey, the average cost-to-income ratio of all A-share listed companies in the past three years was compiled by the Academy of Finance and Sciences and found that the ratio in the first three quarters of 2023 was 9715%, an increase of 457 percentage points, which means that the cost level of listed companies has risen significantly.
Academy of Finance and Economics.
In addition, the Academy of Finance and Sciences also found that from 2022 onwards, the cumulative growth rate of operating costs of China's industrial enterprises above designated size will be slightly higher than that of operating income. In addition, the level of period expenses of industrial enterprises above designated size has also increased. The cumulative increase in selling expenses, administrative expenses and finance expenses in November 2023 was as follows: 3%。
Academy of Finance and Economics.
The above data changes from various perspectives support the conclusion that the cost of enterprises has risen. So, how did the cost structure of enterprises change last year?
Fu Zhihua said that the cost structure of enterprises has undergone significant changes: first, the cost of factors continues to rise, and the cost of environmental protection has put pressure on enterprises; Second, the cost of public risk has increased significantly, and the cost of policy risk is relatively prominent.
He believes that enterprise costs include historical costs that can be quantified and measured due to past behavior; It also includes the cost of risk due to the internalization of external risk factors. We didn't pay enough attention to the cost of enterprise risk in the past. Under the situation of high risk cost, the increase in the risk of enterprise operation is an inevitable result. At present, the level of public risk has risen, raising the risk expectations of enterprises.
How to understand the elevation of public risk?
Fu Zhihua said that from an international point of view, the global high risk has raised the cost of domestic enterprises. For example, geopolitical conflicts have triggered violent fluctuations in resource elements, the adjustment of the international industrial chain has accelerated the upgrading of the domestic industrial structure, and the continuous accumulation of international financial risks has raised the market's risk aversion.
From the perspective of the social field, China is concerned about the impact of declining birthrate and aging on the price increase of enterprise human resources. The rapid aging of the population has made it difficult for enterprises to pay social security premiums, and even caused the long-term labor cost curve of enterprises to rise steeply. In addition, the lag in social reform has increased the cost of economic reform, including the urbanization of peasants, the equalization of basic public services, the gap between the rich and the poor, the low level of social security, and the low final consumption rate, all of which have led to a lack of stamina for consumption and investment growth. Fu Zhihua said.
He said that the uncertainty of the policy has increased the compliance cost of enterprises. For example, some policies are adjusted too frequently or too strongly, and they are increased layer by layer, which makes enterprises in a dilemma; The lack of coordination of multi-sectoral policies will inevitably form mutual constraints, "stepping on the accelerator" and "stepping on the brakes" in parallel, "strengthening" and "containment" coexist, and the preventive expenditure of enterprises has generally increased. In addition, the weak consistency of some macro policy orientations has led to an increase in risk costs.
The enterprise cost research team of the Academy of Finance and Sciences believes that the high risk cost is the fundamental reason for the rise of enterprise risk expectations. To this end, the economic behavior of enterprises has become more cautious, the business behavior has shrunk structurally, the digital transformation has the phenomenon of "unwilling to change" and "dare not change", and the employment mode of enterprises has shown a trend of flexibility and short-term.
In recent years, the first cost reduction policy has not been reduced, and the effect is obvious, which has played a positive role in stabilizing the expectations of enterprises. At present, the cost reduction policy has insufficient understanding of risk cost, and the risk expectation of enterprises should be reduced based on the risk cost concept. The core of reducing corporate risk expectations is to reduce public risks, and the key to reducing public risks is to improve the predictability of ** behaviors. Fu Zhihua said.
The enterprise cost research group of the Academy of Finance and Sciences suggests that the stability and consistency of macro policies should be maintained to inject certainty into the development of enterprises; Conduct mandatory risk assessment and review of ** policies; curb the publicization of risks and risk spillovers to avoid the rise of public risk levels; Build a macro risk management framework through comprehensively deepening reforms.
At present, some departments may issue policies from the perspective of post-responsibility, and too much emphasis is placed on the realization of their own responsibility goals, which is an important reason for the inconsistency of policy orientation. Macroeconomic governance can be improved through the introduction of mandatory risk assessments and reviews of policies. Fu Zhihua said.