(Obviously the chief economist of CITIC).
Different from the beginning of 2023, investors are still a little cautious in the selection of credit bonds under the "scarring effect" of the wealth management redemption tide. At the beginning of 2024, more institutions are struggling with how to make a profit in the fully tapped credit market, and the choice of high-quality assets is even more scarce. In this context, the market's recognition of state-owned enterprise bonds has been increasing, on the one hand, due to the frequent policy support and regulation of the central state-owned enterprise bond market after the outbreak of central state-owned enterprise bond defaults in 2020, and on the other hand, because the default situation of central state-owned enterprise bonds has improved significantly, and investor confidence has recovered. As a result, with the gradual deepening of institutional income mining, some industrial state-owned enterprises with coupon advantages have been paid more attention by the market.
In the process of this round of asset shortage, the qualification advantages of state-owned enterprises have gradually taken root in the hearts of the people.
Unlike in the process of asset shortage in 2022, investor sentiment is still affected by a series of defaults by state-owned enterprises at the end of 2020. On the one hand, after the outbreak of state-owned enterprise risk concentration in 2020, the central state-owned enterprise bond market has also been supported and regulated by policies, and has repeatedly emphasized paying attention to the default risk of state-owned enterprise bonds. On the other hand, since 2021, the default situation of the central state-owned enterprise bond market has improved significantly, and the proportion of the default scale of central state-owned enterprise bonds to the total default scale of the credit market has declined rapidly, accounting for only 2% in 2023, and investor confidence has also recovered significantly.
The remaining maturity of the existing industrial state-owned enterprise bonds accounts for about 31%, and the coupon is concentrated at 3%-4%, but there is no shortage of high-coupon bonds.
From the perspective of the industry, the stock of industrial SOE bonds is concentrated in the industrial, public utilities and financial sectors, accounting for % and 4% of the total stock of central SOE bonds, respectively. From the perspective of entity ratings, the main ratings of existing industrial state-owned enterprise bonds are concentrated in AAA, accounting for 81%. The higher subject qualification makes the financing cost of industrial state-owned enterprises relatively low, and the coupon rate of the bonds issued is usually not high, concentrated in 3%-4%, with a scale of 775 trillion yuan, accounting for 54%. However, there are also high coupon bonds, with a total coupon rate of more than 5% of the bond size of 102 trillion yuan.
The characteristics of the stock bonds of state-owned enterprises in different sectors and industries are different.
Production and investment groups: The average scale of outstanding bonds is relatively small, most of them are concentrated within 10 billion, and there are certain qualification differences among the top several industrial and investment groups in the scale of existing bonds, and the rating sinking and thickening strategy has obvious benefits;
Trading Investment Group: The scale of existing bonds is generally higher, and the provincial trading investment group is mainly AAA-rated, and the average coupon rate is relatively low;
Real estate sector: The overall default risk of real estate central state-owned enterprises is low, and with the continuous support of real estate policies, the real estate risk is expected to be further mitigated in the future, and the volatility of the sector is relatively controllable;
Coal sector: The coupon income of coal central state-owned enterprise bonds is relatively sufficient, and events such as Yongmei's early redemption of existing bonds have further enhanced investor confidence;
Iron and steel sector: Coupon income is relatively sufficient, and there is a certain stratification phenomenon.
With the gradual deepening of institutional excavation, the varieties of industrial state-owned enterprises with coupon advantages have been paid more attention by the market.
With the advancement of the debt work, the supply margin of urban investment bonds has tightened, the gradual deepening of the mining of superimposed institutions, and the scarcity of high-quality assets in the credit market have been further deduced, so that the cost-effectiveness of industrial central state-owned enterprises with coupon advantages has become prominent. For the existing bonds of the production and investment group or the trading investment group, the higher subject qualification makes the coupon income attraction relatively low, and the appropriate sinking in the subject rating or administrative level is expected to significantly increase the allocation income. In terms of industries, the default risk of real estate central state-owned enterprises is low, the valuation fluctuation is more controllable, and it has a certain allocation value; The coupon income of coal central state-owned enterprise bonds is relatively sufficient, generally at 3More than 5%, and the coupon of some existing bonds of entities previously affected by public opinion exceeded 5%.
Risk factors: Tighter regulatory policies than expected; The central bank's monetary policy exceeded expectations; impact of individual credit events; There are errors in the judgment of enterprise attributes.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.