Recently, Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro put forward a high-profile plan to advocate "economic decoupling" from China at a time when China has not yet imposed sanctions. This has aroused widespread concern, and people have speculated about what the Philippines is plotting. Manaro said that due to the current maritime friction with China, they are worried that they may incur economic sanctions from China, so they are actively seeking new ways to strengthen economic resilience in case of contingencies.
It is worth noting that this news was not released by the lower level of the Philippines, but by the Philippine Minister Manaro himself. This shows that the Philippines has an unspeakable sense of concern and unease in its maritime friction with China. China has been the largest partner of the Philippines for many years, and the bilateral amount between China and the Philippines will reach US$40 billion in 2023, occupying an important position in the Philippines. Still, Marcos' choice to take a confrontational stance on maritime issues seems to indicate that they do not have full confidence in the development of relations with China.
Marcos's decision has sparked a lot of speculation, with some analysts suggesting that the motive behind it may not be just to deal with potential Chinese economic sanctions. After all, there is no indication that China intends to impose economic sanctions on the Philippines, which has been emphasizing not politicizing economic issues. On the contrary, China has repeatedly called on the Philippines to return to the right path of a negotiated settlement in the South China Sea. So, what is the real purpose of Marcos's move?
In the analysis, some argue that this may be an attempt to achieve "economic decoupling" from China in order to reduce resistance from domestic vested interests in China's friendliness. During the Duterte administration, due to adhering to the pragmatic line towards China, the economic exchanges between China and the Philippines ushered in a period of time. During this period, a number of vested interests in China-friendly relations emerged in the Philippines, who supported Sino-Philippine friendly relations and belonged to the pro-China faction. Marcos** is clearly inclined to take a stance against China, and such a move could have a negative impact on these pro-China factions.
Among them, the Lao Du family is the representative of the pro-China faction in the Philippines, and it has a very high influence in Philippine politics. Marcos**'s approach to "economic decoupling" may be aimed at breaking the pro-China forces of the Lao Du family in China and reducing interference in its China policy. This also explains why Marcos** made a different decision on the China issue than in the past.
It is worth noting that China, as the largest partner of the Philippines for a long time, if Marcos really wants to achieve "economic decoupling" with China, then which country will it rely on to make up for the economic losses? Manaro revealed that the U.S. Secretary of Commerce will lead a delegation to the Philippines next month, when the Philippines will seek a free pact with the United States. The Philippines is also seeking free trade agreements with countries such as the European Union. This shows that the Philippines wants to reduce its dependence on China by establishing new economic ties with Western countries.
This approach does not necessarily work out. The U.S. remains cautious about the FTA**, while the economic ties between China and the Philippines cannot be ignored. The Philippines may hope to use the Sino-Philippine economic relationship as a bargaining chip with the United States to secure more economic aid and support. Due to the complexity of the international situation, it is uncertain whether this strategy will have the desired effect.
Overall, there are multiple layers of consideration and political struggle behind this decision in the Philippines**. Marcos has tried to respond to China's potential economic sanctions through "economic decoupling" and to seek more space in the domestic political struggle. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will be wise and whether it will succeed. As events unfold in the future, perhaps we can see more clearly the complex economic and political relationship between the Philippines and China.
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