On February 21, the A** field ushered in a rare general rise**, and the Shanghai Composite Index was close to the 3,000-point integer mark at noon. Because of this, A-shares rushed to the hot search on Weibo.
In this regard, there is a view that we should take the opportunity to reduce our positions. But there are also points of view that "at this time, we must boldly catch the wealth of the sky, increase the position, stud, and just do it." So, is it time to chase up or reduce positions? How will A-shares perform in the market outlook?
More than 5,000 ** closed up.
Bull market flag bearers "carry the flag."
As of noon on February 21, A-shares closed up across the board, with 5,014** turning red. In terms of indexes, all 37 Shanghai and Shenzhen core indices closed higher, of which the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 297287 points, closed up 172%。In terms of sectors, the large financial sector served as the "leader", among which Ping An Bank closed the daily limit strongly.
Historically, Ping An Bank has recorded a number of daily limits since its listing, accumulating about 60 times, and most of its time nodes are relatively low levels in market history. For example, since 2020, Ping An Bank has only hit the daily limit on two trading days, July 6, 2020 and November 29, 2022, and after that, the Shanghai Composite Index has ushered in a large number of *** see attached chart).
It is worth mentioning that in the large financial sector, the performance of the brokerage sector is the most eye-catching, with 50 constituent stocks all closing up in the same period, of which Hongta ** touched the daily limit, and the first **, Northeast ** and other gains were above 5%. According to the past situation, the brokerage sector is in most cases a bull market example, and the first to deduce, so it is also known as the "bull market flag-bearer" by the market.
Not only that, at the time of the A** field, the relevant policies are also constantly being launched. For example, after the suspension of the scale of new refinancing bonds, the "T+0" policy is also about to be introduced. In addition, the regulator is also cracking down on violations of laws and regulations, such as the recent restriction on the trading of tens of billions of quantitative private placements that affect the normal trading order and the initiation of a public censure procedure. According to the past situation, the arrival of the bull market is often indispensable for policy support.
There are all kinds of signs that the atmosphere of the A-share bull market is getting heavier and heavier.
As for the current ** field of A**, Dan Bin, chairman of Oriental Harbor, who has always expressed few opinions on the market, also publicly said, "There is a high probability that A shares will see at least a phased bottom in the short term." ”
A-shares rose on the hot search.
Chase up or reduce positions?
On February 21, A-shares also entered the Weibo hot search list in a rare way. So, how will the A-share market perform in the future?
In this regard, some investors are full of expectations, pointing out, "(The last time) was so enthusiastic about doing long was the wave of 'mini cows' in 2019-2020. ”
However, some investors are worried about the market outlook, saying, "I don't like this kind of **, it's too extreme, when it falls, thousands of shares fall to the limit, and when it rises, the limit of 100 shares is good." And how long this violence lasts, I don't know. ”
But there seem to be more investors who are bullish on the future of A-shares. Some investors said, "A shares are rising like this, it is estimated that many people will not be able to hold it, and will continue to reduce their positions, anyway, I still don't consider selling, and still hold shares to rise." According to my understanding, it is not a good choice to sell now, I believe that there are still opportunities behind A shares, and those who sell may regret it....”
Some investors also pointed out, "We must be confident, and then consider reducing our positions after **3000 points, and then we must boldly catch the wealth of the sky." At the same time, the investor said, "Add positions, stud, just do it." ”
Some investors directly admitted, "I'm ready to open a position."
There is a frenzied influx of money from all walks of life.
The net ** of northbound funds and financing orders exceeded 10 billion.
So, is the next step to chase up or reduce positions? Judging from the direction of various capital flows, it generally chooses the former. For example, take the "smart money" northbound capital as an example.
Since the beginning of 2024, most of its time has been in the "tangled period", that is, ** and the number of days to sell account for about half, such as 30 trading days before February 21, 13 trading days are in selling, and 17 are in **.
But on the 21st, the northbound funds seemed to have become "resolute". Wind shows that as of noon, the northbound capital has accumulated 494 A shares0.1 billion yuan, sold 3891.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative net of **104$8.3 billion. Compared with the net scale since 2024, the net scale of northbound funds in half a day is close to the highest value of 12.6 billion yuan in a single day.
There is also a similar flow of funds between the two financings.
Wind shows that since the beginning of 2024, the scale of A-share margin trading has continued to decline, from 16,553 in early January9.2 billion yuan fell to 14,211 before the Spring Festival1.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 23427.5 billion yuan. However, in the two trading days after the Spring Festival, the scale of the two financial institutions has continued to grow, reaching 14,4168.2 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20 billion yuan.
Among them, the net scale of financing on February 19 reached 1545.5 billion yuan, a record high of single-day net financing since 2024. And this net scale of financing can also occupy the top three in 2023.
From the perspective of the direction of northbound capital and financing net **, it is also dominated by the large financial sector. For example, on February 19 and 20, in the top 10 active ** (see attached table) in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect (northbound funds), China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in the banking sector, Ping An in the insurance sector, and Oriental Fortune in the brokerage sector were among them.
In the financing market in the same period, Ping An Bank and China Merchants Bank in the banking sector, CITIC and Oriental Fortune in the brokerage sector are also among them, and the net scale of the two trading days exceeded 100 million yuan.
The ** mentioned in the article is for example analysis only, and does not make a recommendation for buying and selling. ）
Editor-in-charge: Shi Jian |Review: Li Zhen |Supervisor: Wan Junwei.
*:*Market Weekly Market Number).