Reference News Network said on August 12 that analysts are predicting the economic situation in the post-new crown pneumonia era based on the situation in Asia. Asia was the first to hit the outbreak, and while the number of new daily confirmed cases has broken in recent weeks, it remains insignificant compared to the United States, Brazil and parts of Europe.
Spain**" said on August 10** that the forecast data is not good, and this year the Asian economy is expected to usher in the first stagnation in 60 years. In the coming days, if we take into account the encouraging prospects for vaccine development and the gradual return to normalcy of life, economic growth is expected to reach 6 to 7 percent, but it will still not be enough to make up for the current losses.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) will fall by more than 5% this year, and Southeast Asia's five largest economies – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore – will also**12%。However, China's economy grew by more than 3% year-on-year in the second quarter and is expected to grow by 2% for the full year.
According to the report, in the face of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the crisis that was once seen as "bottomless" pales in comparison: the economy contracted during the global financial crisis47%, of which the Asian market contracted by 13%。If China is excluded from the equation, then the situation now will be even more alarming.
Asia accounted for 68% of global growth last year, and its share of global GDP has risen from 22% in 2003 to 33% today. In 2003, Asia was hit by SARS, the most similar precedent to the coronavirus, when tourism was also hit hard, with only a handful of people on the streets and industries destroyed for months.
The current optimism is due to the rapid economic recovery, but people are doing all kinds of things to ignore the fact that the new crown pneumonia epidemic surpasses the former in terms of scale and coverage, and that Asia is now more connected to the world than it was then.
Rhee Changyong, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, said: "These are uncertain times, and the global economy is facing many challenges, and the Asia-Pacific region is no exception. The impact is severe, pervasive, and unprecedented. ”
"Countries should use all the policies in the 'toolbox,'" Lee said, adding that the reserves accumulated in Asia** over the past 20 years should be used to deal with a "tsunami" like the coronavirus. Many countries have large populations and potential political instability, which prevents them from engaging in large-scale financial stimulus as in the West. China, Japan, Australia and South Korea have been the most resolute in the face of the coronavirus.
In this case, the report argues, Asia is also the world's placebo. The IMF notes that if Asia grows at the same pace as the rest of the world, the global economy will shrink by a terrible 7.0 this year6%。Alicia García Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, said Asia was able to recover quickly because it was less hit.
The rate of decline in travel in Asia is about 11%, while in Europe it is 24%, more than double that of Asia. There is a clear correlation between reduced travel and retail sales," Herrero said, "and Asia will be less hit than we thought, and it will be the relative winner of this pandemic." ”
Fact**: Workers work in the stamping and welding workshop of an automobile manufacturing company in Qingzhou City, Shandong Province, on June 30. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Wang Jilin).