If Trump returns to power, his foreign policy could bring about a series of geopolitical changes. Based on his past governing style and rhetoric, we can strategically anticipate its potential policies and provide China with a strategy to deal with them.
First, Trump may try to cease fire in the Russia-Ukraine war within a month and push the two sides to negotiate based on the "Minsk agreements". Such a move is intended to stabilize the situation in Europe and create favorable conditions for the strategic layout of the United States in other regions. In this regard, China should remain neutral, and at the same time strengthen communication with Russia and Ukraine, and promote the two sides to resolve their differences through dialogue.
Second, Trump may lead Western countries to ease and normalize relations with Russia. This strategy is designed to reduce geopolitical tensions in Europe and allow the United States to focus on other challenges. China should pay close attention to this development, while strengthening cooperation with European countries to uphold multilateralism and the international order.
Third, Trump may reassure Arab countries and reduce tensions in the Arab-Israeli conflict. This will help stabilize the situation in the Middle East and reduce US military involvement. China should continue to promote the peace process in the Middle East, strengthen economic cooperation with Arab countries, and jointly safeguard regional stability.
Trump's core strategic objective, however, may be to concentrate on China. He may push for the "decoupling" of the United States from China, weakening China and the United States by imposing high tariffs and other means. Such unilateralism and protectionism would have a serious impact on the global economy. In this regard, China should adhere to the principles of openness and cooperation and promote the process of global economic integration. At the same time, China should strengthen its exchanges with other countries and reduce its dependence on the single market.
In the past, some people thought that Trump would be easier to deal with than Biden, but this was a miscalculation. Although Biden has taken a tough stance on China on the surface, in reality his focus has not been entirely focused on China. Trump, on the other hand, may be more focused on waging a first-class war and a technological war against China, which poses a greater threat to China's economic development and social stability.
Therefore, China should be fully prepared to meet the challenges posed by the possibility of Trump coming back to power. First, China should uphold friendly relations with Russia, Arab countries, ASEAN and third world countries to jointly safeguard the international order and regional stability. Second, China should strengthen cooperation with European countries, reduce its ideological color, and maintain normal relations with old European countries such as France, Germany, and Italy. Finally, China should deepen its internal reforms, stimulate economic and social vitality, and respond to external challenges in a more robust manner.
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