Recently, the world's top four semiconductor equipment manufacturers in terms of revenue have successively announced their 2023 annual reports or the latest quarterly reports for 2024. Focusing on the growth fulcrum, technical focus, and macro situation of semiconductor equipment in 2024, the leading enterprises have drawn these priorities. High-bandwidth memory has become a growth driver for semiconductor devicesIn their latest financial reports, the world's top four semiconductor equipment manufacturers in terms of revenue generally mentioned that HBM (high-bandwidth memory) will drive the recovery of DRAM demand and become the growth momentum of the semiconductor equipment market. Gary Dickerson (Dickson), president and CEO of Applied Materials, said at the earnings conference held on February 16 that the die and packaging required for HBM (high-bandwidth memory) will bring considerable market growth to Applied. High-bandwidth memory—the stacking of high-performance DRAM dies and connecting them to logic chips in advanced packaging—is key to making data centers AI-bearing. High-bandwidth memory uses more than twice the die area of standard DRAM, which means more than twice the capacity needed to produce the same amount of die. In addition, the packaging required for die stacking will also bring market space to the applied materials. 
Schematic diagram of high-bandwidth memory architecture (**Applied Materials) "In 2023, high-bandwidth memory accounted for only 5% of DRAM production, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% in the next few years. In fiscal 2024, we expect high-bandwidth memory packaging revenue to grow fourfold from last year to nearly $500 million. Dixon said. ASML expects memory revenue to grow in 2024, driven by the technology node conversion of DRAM driven by advanced memory products DDR5 and HBM. ASML's financial report for the fourth quarter of 2023 released in January this year shows that the proportion of orders for systems for memory chips has increased significantly. For the full year 2023, ASML's system revenue for logic chips was 16 billion euros, up 60% year-on-year. System revenue for memory chips increased by 9% year-on-year to EUR 6 billion, a significant gap with systems for logic chips. However, in the fourth quarter of 2023, 53% of the net bookings were for logic chips and 47% for memory chips. Lam**, driven by the recovery of memory chips, the global fab equipment market size will be around $80 billion in 2024. Among them, the growth momentum of DRAM mainly comes from the capacity improvement of HBM and node conversion. According to the financial report, Lam's storage business achieved record revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023, accounting for 48% of revenue, of which DRAM revenue accounted for 31% and non-volatile storage accounted for 17%. Tel's financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024 released in February this year pointed out that the proportion of the company's DRAM manufacturing equipment revenue has increased for three consecutive quarters, reaching 31% in this fiscal quarter, nearly double the proportion in the first fiscal quarter. Advanced process-related equipment has reached the level of commercializationCutting-edge logic chip foundry has always been the "big head" of the revenue of leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers. In 2024, ASML will continue to introduce high-NA EUV systems for cutting-edge processes, and Applied Materials and Lam Research will also focus on advanced process-related needs such as GAA transistors and backside power supplies. High numerical aperture EUV lithography systems are regarded as the mainstream equipment path for sub-2nm processes. In 2023, ASML sent Intel the first modules of the first high-NA EUV system, the EXE:5000. With the increase in aperture values, ASML has achieved a throughput of 185 Wph (the number of wafers that can be processed in an hour) with an energy of 20 mJ cm2 (millijoules per square centimeter) in the EXE:5000 lithography system, with a resolution of 8 nm, which can reduce the feature size (the size of the smallest feature image that can be produced by the lithography process) by 17 times and increase the transistor density by 29 times. 
ASML Delivers First High Numerical Aperture EUV System to Intel Roger Dassen, ASML's chief financial officer, said that ASML expects to spend a significant amount of money in 2024 to introduce high NAV devices and increase annual production capacity to 90 EUVs and 600 DUVs. From 2025 onwards, ASML's EUV optics will gradually transition to the more profitable high numerical aperture system, the EXE:5200. As the transistor gets smaller, the width of the gate gets narrower and narrower, and when it gets narrower, the control of the current decreases. In the past, FinFETs increased the area of the gate around the channel through a fin-like structure, improving circuit control and extending the process node from 20nm to below 5nm. However, when the process node reaches 3nm and below, FinFETs will also reach their limits. The advent of GAA (Wrap-Around Gate Technology) transistors has once again improved the transistor structure, enabling gate-to-channel wrapping on all sides to control current more precisely. Applied Materials expects cutting-edge logic chips based on GAA transistors to move toward high-volume production in fiscal 2024. The shift in transistor architecture from FinFET to GAA has expanded the profitability of Applied Materials, which increases the addressable market by $1 billion for each additional 100,000 wafers per fab per month. Focusing on the needs of fabs for GAA transistor processes, Applied Materials has launched epitaxial growth devices for 30nm and sub-FinFETs and GAA transistors, electron beam metrology systems that support the patterned control capabilities required for 3nm logic chip foundries and GAA transistors, and selective etching tools that expand the scope of FinFET applications and promote the future development of GAA. Backside power supply is seen by Applied Materials as another important technological turning point. Compared to the traditional front-side power supply, the rear power supply can increase the logic transistor density of the chip, achieving improved power and performance. Dixon expects the process demand for back-side power to generate revenue for the company in 2024 and expand significantly in the coming years. Similar to applied materials, Lam has a focus on GAA, backside power, as well as advanced packaging and dry EUV patterning. Lam's fiscal 2024 investment priorities also include process development capabilities close to customer locations, global ** chain operations, and manufacturing capabilities. Equipment manufacturers are more optimistic about the market outlook for 2025Although there are signs of moderate recovery in the end market and DRAM** has picked up, equipment manufacturers tend to be conservative in their expectations for 2024 and generally optimistic about the market in 2025. In 2023, ASML's full-year net income and net profit both increased by more than 30% compared to 2022, however, ASML's forecast for revenue in the first quarter of 2024 is not optimistic, with net sales expected to be between €5.0 billion and €5.5 billion, compared to 72.5 billion in the third quarter of 2023Net income of 3.7 billion euros will decline significantly sequentially. ASML President and CEO Peter Wennink (Wennink) is conservative about the market** in 2024, believing that the recovery situation in 2024 remains uncertain, and expects ASML's revenue in 2024 to be similar to that of 2023. Wennink has a positive view of 2025 and sees 2024 as a transition period to prepare for significant growth in 2025. Based on the market cycle curves of 2001 and 2009, ASML believes that the semiconductor industry often ushers in a significant growth cycle after experiencing a downward cycle. Today's semiconductor industry is in a trough due to inflation, rising interest rates, economic slowdown, and geopolitical influences, but manufacturers also need to prepare for the growth cycle after the trough. Tel is also bullish on the performance of the fab equipment market in 2025. According to data from TEL comprehensive market research agencies, in 2025, the continuous growth of AI servers, and the rising demand for PCs and smartphones driven by AI applications and replacement cycles will jointly drive the capital expenditure of DRAM, NAND and advanced process logic chips, so that the annual wafer fab equipment market size will achieve double-digit growth. Author丨Zhang XinyiEditor丨Zhao ChenmeiEditor丨Maria Producer丨Lian Xiaodong.