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As a country with a special geographical location, Mongolia has a relative security advantage in geopolitics. Any country that wants to attack Mongolia can only go through Russia or China, but because of the unfavorable relationship between Mongolia and these two countries, it is not realistic to attack through this route; A forcible attack on Mongolia by force would inevitably lead to a third world war, and no country would be able to guarantee victory. As a result, Mongolia has developed a natural sense of security, which has led to their arrogance at the diplomatic level and their occasional troublemaking for China. For example, Mongolia chose to cooperate with the United States in the face of the Sino-US technology war and signed rare earth orders. However, due to a number of reasons, this cooperation did not go further, and news of the cancellation of orders came from multiple sources. This apparently positive cooperation is in fact unreliable, because Mongolia faces a series of challenges in rare earth mining, infrastructure construction, etc., and it is difficult to harm China's interests due to its backing on China and Russia. Mongolia's behavior is often incomprehensible and compels China to maintain strategic focus.
Recently, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erden said that Mongolia hopes to hold a summit with China and Russia to strengthen cooperation between the three countries and study how to better participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative. In addition, Mongolia said it is ready to participate in the Sino-Russian Power of Siberia II gas pipeline project, which can transport 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to China. The Prime Minister of Mongolia also stressed that Mongolian-Chinese relations are at the highest level, and the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two sides is constantly developing.
For China, however, the goodwill shown by Mongolia needs to be viewed dialectically. For the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project, the original plan did not involve Mongolian territory, but due to the change of opinion on the part of the Russian side, Mongolia began to hope that the project would pass through its own territory. However, China is firmly opposed to this, and believes that Mongolia's political position is not firm and it is not suitable to hand over its energy lifeline to them. As a result, the construction of the project has reached an impasse, which was also mentioned during several visits to China by Russia. The Mongolian prime minister's statement may be to reassure China, and at the same time hope to get a piece of the pie in the project. In addition, Mongolia's mention of strengthening cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative may also be motivated by the exchange of interests, rather than a genuine willingness to cooperate.
For China, it is not easy to believe Mongolia's change in stance, and it needs to use long-term observation to verify whether they really identify with China and believe in China. Mongolia's cooperation with China needs to be based on mutual trust and common interests, not just slogans and superficial work. China needs to maintain strategic focus, be cautious about Mongolia's actions and statements, and not make concessions lightly in order to safeguard its own interests and security.
In summary, Mongolia has a relative security advantage in geopolitics, but its diplomatic arrogance and uncertainty make it difficult to cooperate with China. Mongolia's statements and actions need to be viewed from a dialectical perspective, and China needs to maintain strategic focus and judge whether Mongolia is truly willing to cooperate with China in the long run.
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