Recently, the commercial car state in the collation of the industry and major car companies on the 2024 medium and heavy truck market forecast data found: all parties generally believe that the medium and heavy truck market will increase by another 10% in 2024.
So, what are the factors that can support this 10% growth? Where is the 10% incremental opportunity?
Objectively speaking, China's commercial vehicle market, especially the heavy truck market, will indeed show recovery growth in 2023, but it is undeniable that it is still in the stage of cyclical trough climbing. The information fed back from the front line of the market is still that the demand is insufficient and the survival pressure of all parties in the industrial chain is greater.
If the sales of medium and heavy-duty trucks are to increase by 10% in 2024, there must be corresponding supporting factors. The pulling role of the economy, policy and market is crucial.
By collating industry data business Chebang, it is found that from a macroeconomic point of view, the growth rate of China's economy in 2024 is basically about 5%; Behind this is a good expectation that the state will introduce a series of stable growth policies in promoting consumption, expanding investment, supporting real estate, and boosting private enterprises; From the perspective of the market, 2023 is a critical period for the clearance of transport capacity, and as the peak of clearance falls, the situation of more vehicles and less goods in the heavy truck market in 2024 may be slightly alleviated. Then, on the whole, the survival state of the medium and heavy truck market in 2024 will be better than that in 2023.
The above can be said to be a solid foundation for the growth of the medium and heavy truck market at the macro level. From the perspective of specific market segments, Shangchebang concluded that gas vehicles, the elimination of national four vehicles, and new energy vehicles will be the three major incremental opportunities in the commercial vehicle market in 2024.
First of all, the gas vehicle market is the most critical. Industry data shows that in 2023, China's natural gas sources will be sufficient, including imported LNG terminals, pipeline natural gas pipelines, and domestic natural gas fields. At present, 5,600 LNG refueling stations have been built in China, an increase of 8% compared with 2022. In fact, from about 200 in 2011 to 5,600 in 2023, the construction rate of domestic LNG refueling stations will maintain an average annual growth rate of about 10%. All of the above conditions create opportunities for more vigorous demand and richer use scenarios for gas vehicles. Especially in the tractor market, the penetration rate of gas heavy trucks is expected to reach a new high in 2024; The high-horsepower transition will also be more pronounced, with 13 liters to 480-500 horsepower, and 15 liters to 560 horsepower and above.
Let's look at the incremental market brought about by the elimination of China IV. In fact, "more cars and less goods" and the elimination of old cars are a trade-off relationship. And the driving force behind it is the policy. 2024 is just in the middle and late stages of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and the commercial car state predicts that as the end of various policies approaches, the implementation will also be tightened, including the elimination of national four vehicles, diesel vehicle pollution control, overkill, and limit, etc., which will directly drive the demand for new car purchases to a certain extent.
New energy incremental market. In 2023, China's new energy commercial vehicle sales will be 780,000 units, up 21% from the previous year. Among them, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 320,000 units, an increase of 17%, and a penetration rate of 54%, on the whole, the sales volume and penetration rate are showing a steady growth trend. According to industry data, the current new energy battery** has dropped from 1,300 yuan kWh in 2018 to 800 yuan kWh in 2023, which will provide competitiveness for new energy commercial vehicles to enter more flexible and broad application scenarios.
In addition, replacement demand will be the key to the continued recovery of the heavy truck market in 2024.
Of course, in addition to the segmentation of opportunities that will affect the sales market of medium and heavy trucks in 2024, overcapacity, industry involution, fragmentation of market demand, and concentrated large-scale increment have become historical realities, and we must also look at them directly.
At this time, in-depth customer development and diversification to meet specific needs have become the key to increasing these challenges. Industry data shows that in recent years, the proportion of fleet customers has increased from 10% to 50%, and car companies have a higher penetration rate of large fleets, but often insufficient penetration of small and medium-sized fleets; The needs of fleet customers are also different, and they pay more attention to management solutions and solutions than they focus on the vehicle itself; The proportion of drivers under the age of 35 is close to 50%, and the demand of young drivers has its own ......These changes need to be accurately met by car companies to tap the increment.
In addition, the ability to respond quickly to scattered and short-term market opportunities such as "sub-mother cars and Shanghai muck trucks" in 2023 will also be the key for car companies to gain market growth.
From the perspective of a longer industrial chain, more profound needs such as supply, leasing, refined vehicle management and TCO solutions, and second-hand car replacement have been rapidly occurring in the past two years along with the increase in the penetration rate of new energy, changes in the structure of fleet users, driver groups and the development of the second-hand car market.
Only by having the courage to increase these challenges and changes can we strive for a larger market space.