This week's road freight rates for bulk commodities**.
During the Spring Festival, a lot of good news was released, and the overall market expectation was strong。During the Spring Festival, a lot of good news was released, and the overall market expectation was strongState-owned banks continued to expand their recruitment, acquiring and docking more than 8,200 projects; **Continue to do a good job in the implementation of the goals and tasks of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and continuously optimize the environment for the development of the private economy. In addition, during the Spring Festival, the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society is strong, and the consumption heat continues to increase. On the whole, all parties are actively working for stable growth, the bulk commodity market is picking up, and transportation freight rates are continuing to be effective. The steel market as a whole has entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, spot trading has basically stagnated, steel mills mainly purchase iron ore on demand, and the automobile transportation market is relatively deserted. Some steel mills plan to carry out the third round of coke reduction, and the resistance to steel mills under the profit loss of coke enterprises is strong. In terms of coal, with the arrival of a new round of cold wave weather, power plants have a demand for replenishment, and non-power enterprises have resumed work after the holiday, and the purchase volume has increased. In terms of non-ferrous metals, during the Spring Festival, most enterprises are in vacation mode, and the non-ferrous sector is relatively cold, and the demand may increase after the resumption of work and production after the holiday.
Next, let's take a look at the specific data
Commodity road transport freight rate trends
This week's bulk commodity road transport freight rate is 0362 yuan ton km, **226%。
The average daily transportation of the highway is **
0. on February 12 and February 1337 yuan ton-km, 0. on February 14 and February 1636 yuan ton-km, 0 on February 1535 yuan ton-km, 034 yuan ton-km, 033 yuan ton-km.
Freight rate trends for major commodity categoriesThis week's steel, coke, iron ore, non-ferrous metals road transport freight rates**; Coal road transport freight rate**.
Steel transportation freight ratesThis week's steel transportation freight rate is 0291 ton-kilometers, 0061 yuan ton-km, a decrease of 1733%。
This week's steel **range**. At the end of the Spring Festival, most of the steel mills were in a state of holiday shutdown, and the output continued to shrink. On the demand side, during the festival, the rhythm of local first-class merchants and terminal procurement was interrupted, and the demand was basically stagnant, and there was still a time lag in the recovery of downstream demand after the holiday, and the pattern of weak demand continued. The weak supply and demand during the Spring Festival holiday led to a slowdown in road transport demand. Therefore, this week's steel transportation freight rate**.
Iron ore transportation freight rates
This week's iron ore transportation freight rate is 0291 yuan ton-kilometer, 0011 yuan ton km, a decrease of 364%。
Iron ore of the week***。During the Spring Festival holiday, the overall activity of the iron ore market was weak, and the total number of iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased month-on-month, and the decline at the first end was more in line with the seasonal pattern. In terms of steel mills, the overall production is in a state of decline, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills is neutral and high, and the iron ore is mainly purchased on demand, and the automobile transportation market is relatively cold. Therefore, this week's iron ore transportation freight rate**.
Coal transportation freight ratesThis week's coal transportation freight rate is 0440 yuan ton-km, 0048 yuan ton-km, an increase of 1224%。
This week's coal **range**. **In terms of the Spring Festival, during the Spring Festival, private coal mines stopped production and holiday, and the production of large state-owned mines was relatively stable. On the demand side, with the arrival of a new round of cold wave weather, power plants still have the need to replenish storage, and non-power enterprises resumed work after the holiday, and the purchase volume increased. In addition, there will be snowfall in the next few days, which will make transportation more difficult. Therefore, this week's coal transportation freight rate**.
Coke transportation freight rates
This week's coke transportation freight rate is 0320 yuan ton-kilometer, 0047 yuan ton km, a decrease of 1280% 。
This week's coke range. **In terms of some steel mills, some steel mills plan to carry out the third round of coke reduction, and coking profits fall into losses to maintain production restrictions. On the demand side, the demand for the resumption of work at the terminal site is declining, and it is difficult for steel mills to reverse the loss situation and maintain rigid demand for coke. Superimposed post-holiday transportation market as a whole, there are more cars and less goods. Therefore, this week's coke transportation freight rate**.
Non-ferrous metal transportation freight ratesThis week's non-ferrous metal transportation freight rate is 0255 yuan ton kilometers, 0041 yuan ton-km, a decrease of 1385% 。
Non-ferrous metals of the week***In terms of copper, during the Spring Festival, most enterprises were in vacation mode, the domestic copper market demand slowed down, and spot trading was temporarily stagnant. In terms of aluminum, the domestic aluminum downstream started to maintain a downward trend, among which the large profile enterprises also appeared to stop production during the holiday, and only the large enterprises in the aluminum plate, strip and foil industry started in good condition. In terms of zinc, the enthusiasm of the zinc city during the Spring Festival has not changed, and the downstream enterprises have stocked up before the holiday, and most of them consume existing inventory after the holiday, and the purchase of the market is less and maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, this week's non-ferrous metal transportation freight rate**.
Intra-provincial freight rate trends in major provinces
According to the data of Wubo TechnologyThis weekInner Mongolia, Hebei Province road transport freight rate；Shanxi ProvinceRoad transport tariffs
This weekInner MongoliaThe freight rate for road transport is 0323 yuan ton-kilometer, 0023 yuan ton km, down 665%。
The main reason for the transportation freight rate in Inner Mongolia is the Spring Festival holiday, the coal mines in Ordos area are mainly transported by long-term agreements and rigid demand, and the temperature of the Spring Festival is warmer, the daily consumption of coal in power plants has fallen, and the demand for coal has weakened.
This weekHebeiThe freight rate for road transport is 0304 yuan ton-km, 0049 yuan ton-km, a decrease of 1388%。
The main reason for the Hebei transportation freight rate is that during the Spring Festival, the Tangshan steel market as a whole entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the spot transaction was basically stagnant.
This weekShanxiThe freight rate for road transport is 0332 yuan ton-km, compared with last week**0028 yuan ton-km, an increase of 1117%。
The main reason for Shanxi's transportation freight rate this week is that the sales of Shanxi's coal mines in production are good, and after the Spring Festival, the number of downstream enterprises resuming work has increased, and the available days of coal storage in some power plants are low, releasing the demand for replenishment.
Trends in freight rates for major arterial road transport
According to the data of Wubo Technology, the freight rate of the country's main trunk road transportation this weekMixed
This weekOrdosto Yinchuan Main LineThe weekly average price is 8658 yuan ton, converted into 0348 ton-km,**0.29%。
This weekXinzhou to Yuncheng trunk lineThe weekly average price is 125 yuan ton, which is converted into 0284 yuan ton km, **879%。
This weekYulinTo LinfenTrunk lineThe weekly average price is 13412 yuan ton, converted into 0294 yuan ton km, **1635%。
This weekLv Liangto Tangshan Main LineThe weekly average price is 22122 yuan tons, converted to 0 kilometers per kilometer279 yuan ton km, **377%。
This weekTaiyuanto Tangshan Main LineThe weekly average price is 19296 yuan tons, converted into 0278 yuan ton km, **865%。
This weekLv Liangto Linfen trunk lineThe weekly average price is 9260 yuan tons, converted into 0 kilometers per kilometer388 yuan ton km,**3.49%。
This weekYuncheng to Handan trunk lineThe weekly average price is 110 yuan ton, which is converted into 0293 yuan ton km, **2009%。
Factors influencing the market outlookPositives:
According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (the number of invoices issued by enterprises, the caliber of non-terminal sales),In January 2024, China's truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold a total of 28880,000 units, down 7% from December last yearYear-on-year growth of 82%.。Among them, the heavy-duty truck market (including chassis and tractors).January sales 9690,000 units, up 86% month-on-month, a year-on-year increase of 99%. In January 2024, the heavy-duty truck market nearly doubled its performance and reaped a "good start".
Since the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (hereinafter referred to as the "Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development") and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration clarified the relevant deployment in January, according to incomplete statistics, since February this yearLarge state-owned banks and joint-stock banks responded positively and successively held special meetings on the coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing. According to public information,At present, the five state-owned banks have obtained and docked more than 8,200 projects
Data released by the People's Bank of China on February 9 showed that at the end of January 2024,The balance of broad money (m2) is 29763 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87%。The balance of narrow money (m1) is 6942 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%。Currency in circulation (m0) balance 1214 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%。Renminbi loans increased by 492 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. On February 11, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission introducedContinue to implement the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year PlanIt will provide strong support for the comprehensive construction of a modern socialist country to get off to a good start. We will also take more practical measures with relevant partiesContinuously optimize the environment for the development of the private economy, effectively solve the difficulties in the development of private enterprises, and boost the confidence of private enterprises in development. On February 17, the data of the 2024 comprehensive transportation Spring Festival transportation work class showed thatFrom February 10th to 17th (the first day of the first lunar month to the eighth day of the first lunar month), the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society is expected to accumulate 231.1 billion passengers. Among them, the railway passenger volume is expected to accumulate 99.59 million person-times; The flow of people on the highway is expected to accumulate 218.4 billion person-times, of which the number of non-commercial passenger cars on expressways and ordinary national and provincial highways is expected to accumulate 199.8 billion passengers, highway commercial passenger traffic is expected to accumulate 18.6 billion passengers; The total number of passengers transported by waterway is expected to be 9.4 million; Civil aviation passenger traffic is expected to accumulate 18.04 million passengers. On February 18, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement saying that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking systemCarry out 105 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase operations and 500 billion yuan of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) operationsThe winning interest rate was the same as that of the previous period, and the net volume of MLF in the month was 1 billion yuan, and the MLF winning interest rate remained unchanged, achieving excess parity continuation. Negatives:
According to the **Meteorological Observatory**, affected by the cold wave, it is expected,From February 18th to 22nd, most areas of China will have a sharp cooling from west to east and from north to south, and the average temperature will generally drop by 8 12. Among them, the cumulative cooling range in some areas of central and eastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, Hubei, Hunan and other places can reach more than 20. From February 18th to 23rd, there will be widespread rain and snow in the central and eastern regions.
At 24 o'clock on February 19, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened. Research institutions generally ** said,The adjustment of the retail price limit of refined oil products will be stranded. According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of February 19 (the tenth working day), the average price of reference ** varieties was 78$54 barrel with a rate of change of 019%, because the conditions for price adjustment are not met (the adjustment red line of 50 yuan tons stipulated by the state is not reached), it is expected that the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices will not be adjusted in this round.
This article only states the author's personal views and does not represent the position of Wubo Technology).
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