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After the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a 48-hour military training in the South China Sea, the Philippines ignored China's warnings and illegally entered the waters adjacent to Scarborough Shoal and landed on the reef. This is the second illegal landing of Filipinos on the island in January this year. The Philippines' move is seen as a test of China's bottom line on the South China Sea issue. Scarborough Shoal is geographically important and rich in resources, and the Philippines may want to claim it for itself.
The Philippines currently appears to have two backers. The first is the second batch of BrahMos supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles purchased by the Philippines from India. The Philippines believes that equipped with this missile, its ability to control the South China Sea region will be greatly enhanced. Then there is India, which has loudly stated that it will protect the Philippines. India did this for two reasons, one is to obtain economic benefits with more equipment, and the other is to distract China from gaining the initiative and advantage on the Sino-Indian border issue. However, these ideas could not be realized.
Scarborough Shoal is just over 300 kilometers away from the Philippine mainland and is surrounded by rich oil and gas, mineral and fishery resources. This is a huge attraction for the Philippines, so they are trying to occupy the island with provocative actions. The Philippines appears to covet China's marine resources and may receive assistance and support from external forces such as the United States to maximize its benefits.
Who is the purpose of the Philippines to test China's bottom line this time? Imagine if the Philippines were able to create new incidents in the South China Sea and gain the support of external powers, they might think that they could force China to make compromises or concessions. However, the Philippines should understand that Scarborough Shoal is China's inherent territory, supported by international law and historical facts, and this cannot be changed.
By purchasing India's BrahMos missiles, the Philippines hopes to enhance its maritime defense capabilities in the South China Sea. India, however, is behind the scenes, helping the Philippines in trying to provoke China. India's motives may be twofold. First of all, India can reap economic benefits by equipping the Philippines. Second, India wants to distract China from the South China Sea issue in order to gain the initiative and advantage on the Sino-Indian border issue.
However, the Chinese side has made it clear through the regular press conference of the Ministry of National Defense that the Philippine side has broken its word and China-Philippines relations are facing difficulties. China is willing to resolve differences with the Philippines through dialogue, but if the Philippines insists on going its own way, China will resolutely counteract it. China will not condone the provocative actions of the Philippines, and the specific outcome will depend on the decision of Marcos Marcos in the Philippines.
The South China Sea issue is a long-standing dispute between China and the Philippines. The Philippines is trying to test China's bottom line through provocative actions such as illegal landing on islands, perhaps hoping to maximize its own interests with the support of external forces. However, Scarborough Shoal is China's inherent territory, and neither history nor international law can change this fact.
The Philippines has sought India's support in trying to bolster its own defense capabilities in the South China Sea through purchases and joint military exercises. India's real motive, however, is to distract China from the South China Sea by helping the Philippines in exchange for economic and border benefits. However, China has made it clear that it will not tolerate the Philippines' provocative actions and will resolutely retaliate.
Dialogue is the key to resolving disputes in the South China Sea. It is hoped that China and the Philippines can resolve the issue through dialogue, rather than through provocative actions. Lasting peace and stability can only be achieved through mutual respect and peaceful negotiations.
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