Vision Pro will be released soon, and domestic structural parts, DOM and OEM manufacturers will benefit from it, but the domestic substitution of Micro-OLED is more imaginative; With the introduction of the domestic ** chain, the cost of MR equipment display will decrease, which will drive the price of MR equipment down, promote the growth of its shipments, and domestic MiRco-OLED manufacturers will also benefit from it.
Hu Nan Wen. According to public information, Apple's MR product Vision Pro will be officially launched in North America in January 2024, with a market price of $3499, **Although higher than Meta and PICO, Vision Pro is not a VR product in the traditional sense, which combines virtual reality with augmented reality to enhance the realism of the user experience.
The popularity of the MR track is also reflected in the secondary market, in recent times, the stock price of many listed companies in the MR headset and OEM concept has continued to be the best, who is the real beneficiary of Apple's MR?
According to Wellsenn XR data, a total of 7 Chinese mainland companies are included in the list of Vision Pro** chain, of which the whole machine assembly OEM is responsible for Luxshare Precision, the body frame and shell are provided by Changying Precision and Lingyi Technology, the power system will come from Desay battery, and the speaker module will come from Goertek. According to rough estimates, the above hardware accounts for about 16% of the cost of the Vision Pro, and the cost accounts for as much as 4419% of the display is supplied by Sony. However, a number of domestic companies represented by BOE have already laid out in Mirco-OLED, and in the future, with the introduction of domestic ** chain, domestic Miric-OLED may also benefit from it.
xrIt's iPhone moment
Currently, the XR market is dominated by VR and AR products.
In 2023, domestic and foreign manufacturers have released a number of VR and AR products, according to Huatai ** statistics, Goertek released the first smart bracelet reference design link focusing on the interaction of real XR devices in May; Panasonic subsidiary Shiftall Compact VR headset Meganex was released in July; VR haptic technology provider SenseGlove has unveiled its latest haptic glove product, the nova2; Meta's upgraded product, the Quest3, was also officially launched in October.
Although a large number of technology companies in the industry have released a new generation of products, the sales of VR and AR devices seem to have hit a bottleneck. According to VR gyro data, in 2022, global VR headset shipments will be 10.14 million units, a year-on-year decrease of -865%, of which overseas VR hardware shipments were 8.92 million units, a year-on-year increase of -13%; Domestic VR shipments were 1.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 73%. The growth trend of the domestic VR industry is relatively good, but the base is low.
According to WellSenn XR data, in the second quarter of 2023, global VR sales fell further, with total shipments of only 1.44 million units, down 37% year-on-year. In terms of regions, the sales volume of VR headsets in the domestic market was 120,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 65%; The sales volume of headsets in overseas markets was 1.32 million units, down 33% year-on-year.
Huafu ** said that the current technical iteration of VR and AR products cannot meet the needs of consumers, and the content ecosystem has not yet been perfected has gradually become a resistance to its development, and the market urgently needs benchmark products to drive industrial development and break the situation.
Apple's MR product, Vision Pro, is the key to the development of the XR industry, and Vision Pro is a mixed reality device. Generally speaking, mixed reality technology is a combination of virtual reality and augmented reality, conceptually speaking, MR and AR are closer, but limited by the low maturity of AR technology, MR is basically based on VR technology to add elements.
It is worth mentioning that, compared with VR, Apple's MR device adds various virtual objects and images in the background of the real environment, and users can interact with nature through eyes, gestures and sounds, which is a device that realizes the fusion of virtual and reality in a real sense.
According to Huafu** research report, Vision Pro will start mass production in December 2023, and the first batch of stock may be around 400,000, and it is planned to be released in early 2024 and 2025.
The first and second generation MR products. Research institute marketUS**, the global MR market size is expected to be 43The compound growth rate of 20% increased to 122 trillion US dollars, the market space is vast.
In addition, taking the development history of the smartphone industry as a reference, in addition to product hardware, excellent content is also an important factor to promote the rapid development of the industry. Taking the iPhone as an example, in 2010, high-quality games such as "Fruit Ninja" played a huge role in promoting the shipment of the iPhone 4 with the high-quality interactive experience of the touch screen.
For the XR industry, the market still lacks the ultimate benchmark products and global content scenarios. Huaan** said that products such as the Quest2 have indeed promoted the increase in industry shipments, but there is a lack of products that have been polished to the extreme like the iPhone 4, and with the launch of the Vision Pro, the XR industry may usher in an "iPhone" moment.
In terms of content, XR's early excellent content is concentrated in the field of games, such as "Half-Life Alex", "Resident Evil 4VR Edition", there are fewer application scenarios, resulting in limited development of the industry, in order to create Apple's content ecology, since 2015, Apple has acquired 7 MR content companies, including Metaio, Faceshift, Spaces, NextVR, etc., and the content covers VR** conferences, sports live broadcasts, game engines, etc.
In terms of compatibility, Vision Pro supports hundreds of thousands of iPad applications, and headset users can apply most of Apple's iPad apps in any scenario without or only a small amount of adaptation. Moreover, the Vision Pro can also be interoperable with Apple devices such as iPhones and MacBooks, so it seems that Apple's MR products are expected to accelerate the improvement of the software and hardware maturity of the XR industry chain, and replicate the success of the iPhone through iterative innovation of future products.
Who will benefit domestically
According to WellSenn XR's BOM dismantling of Apple's Vision Pro, its computing and storage plates, display plates, optical plates, interactive sensors, structural parts and connectors account for the cost of the whole machine34%, OEM and ODM also account for 8% of the cost of the whole machine.
The cost dismantling of Southwest ** is slightly different from that of Wellsenn XR, but the display screen is still the largest part of the cost of the whole machine, accounting for 48 of the cost of the whole machine40%, followed by computing and storage, structural parts, sensors, OEM and ODM, each of which accounts for the proportion of the whole machine cost60%。
According to the Tianfeng ** research report, in 2023, Lixun Precision will become the exclusive supplier of Vision Pro machine assembly; In 2019, Luxshare Precision became the main supplier of AirPods Pro, and in the following years, it successively acquired Jiangsu Wistron and Rikai Computer, cut into the OEM of iPhone and improved the layout of precision structural parts such as computers. In 2022, the company will replace Goertek to become the exclusive supplier of AirPods Pro, and will be added as the VCM supplier of iPhone.
According to the financial report data, in 2022, Apple will account for 73% of the current sales revenue of Lixun Precision28%, with the release of the first-generation Vision Pro and future updates and iterations, the company's consumer electronics business is expected to grow further.
In addition to OEM and ODM, Vision Pro structural parts manufacturers are also worth paying attention to. Wellsenn XR data shows that Changying Precision and Lingyi Zhizao are the leading structural parts suppliers of Vision Pro, including the middle frame, shell and some titanium alloy structural parts.
In addition, according to the Northeast ** Research Report, at the beginning of 2021, Lingyi Zhizao acquired Zhuhai Flextronics, and the integration of VR and AR business is one of the key development directions of this acquisition. In August 2023, the company issued convertible bonds, and one of the fundraising projects is a smart wearable device production line, which is mainly used for the production of VR and AR equipment, and the annual operating income of the project will reach 144.8 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that,In terms of hardware,Vision ProThe main screen display is Micro-OLED,Single eye resolution reach4K,It is the first time on the market to use Micro-OLED to achieve binocular 8K effect products,Micro-OLED can overcome the current AR、Many defects in VR display technology,And can well meet the needs of XR equipment screen to improve pixel density、Reduce dizziness、Reduce power consumption。
According to Markets and Markets, the market size of micro-OLED displays for near-eye display devices will reach 13 by 2025$9.4 billion.
However, the Micro-OLED industry is in its early stages of development, and only Sony has launched XR products with its dominant position in the consumer electronics field, and the Vision Pro's display screen is purchased from Sony, which costs up to $350 per screen.
At present, domestic manufacturers are accelerating the layout of 8-inch and 12-inch micro-OLED production lines. According to TrendBank statistics, as of June 2023, the total production capacity of 8-inch micro-OLED companies in China has reached 1554k m, the top three are BOE, Qingyue Technology and Lakeside Optoelectronics, of which BOE production capacity is 6k m, accounting for 38 percent61%, Qingyue Technology has a production capacity of 5k m; In addition to the accepted projects, Ruixian Technology, Guozhao Optoelectronics, Huarui Optoelectronics and Huaxing Optoelectronics, a subsidiary of TCL Technology, have also joined the Micro-OLED production plan.
In terms of 12-inch micro-OLED production lines, as of June 2023, the only companies in China that have completed the acceptance are SeeYA Technology, BOE and Hongxi Technology. According to statistics, SeeYA Technology ranks first in terms of production capacity, with a production capacity of 6k m; BOE's 12-inch micro-OLED production line is being carried out in three phases and is expected to be completed in January 2024, with a designed annual production capacity of 5.23 million pieces.
In the future, with the introduction of the domestic ** chain, the cost of MR equipment display will decrease, which will drive the price of MR equipment down, promote the growth of its shipments, and domestic MiRco-OLED manufacturers will also benefit from it.