Towards high-end and specialization
Author: IT Times reporter Shen Yibin
Edited by Qian Lifu and Sun Yan
At the beginning of 2024, the new energy vehicle market is "full of gunsmoke".
On January 12, Tesla's official website in China showed that the price of the Model 3 and Model Y was reduced by 6,500 yuan to 15,500 yuan. After the adjustment, the Model 3 starts at 24590,000 yuan, Model Y starting at 25890,000 yuan.
In terms of domestic new energy vehicles, Xiaomi cars will enter the public eye at the end of 2023, although the price has not yet been disclosed, but many industry insiders speculate that Xiaomi cars may go to the high-end market. In 2023, car companies such as Wenjie, Li and BYD will launch high-end models such as Wenjie M9, Li MEGA, and Yangwang U8.
On the one hand, a new round of first-class war caused by Tesla, on the other hand, domestic car companies hit the high-end market, which seems to be a contradiction, but in fact it is a reflection of the further intensification of market competition, and the pressure faced by car companies continues to increase. "In 2024, new energy vehicle companies will be reshuffled, and the last car companies will inevitably be eliminated. ”Zhang Xiang, dean of the New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, told the IT Times that the concentration of the new energy vehicle industry will increase, and the number of car companies may eventually be less than 10.
The growth rate may be as low as 20%.
2021 and 2022 are the periods of "soaring" of new energy vehicles. According to the data, in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will complete 35450,000 and 35210,000 units, an increase of 160% year-on-year; In 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will be 70580,000 and 68870,000 units, up 96 y/y9% and 934%。
In the past 2023, the trajectory has changed significantly, the growth rate has slowed down, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have completed 958 respectively70,000 and 94950,000 units, up from the previous year. 9%。
The overall market of new energy vehicles Source: Passenger Association.
The downward trend of growth will continue in 2024, Zhang Xiang**, China's new energy vehicle production and sales growth rate in 2024 may be about 20%.
Slowing growth is an inevitable trend in 2024. Jiang Wei (pseudonym), head of the marketing department of a new energy vehicle manufacturer, told the IT Times reporter that first of all, because the subsidies for new energy vehicles have decreased a lot; Secondly, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached a certain level, and it is difficult to determine whether technologies such as thousands of miles of battery life and unmanned driving can stimulate consumers to buy and replace cars.
Jiang Wei also believes that the overall slowdown in the market is related to the fact that new energy vehicles have moved towards the high-end market and are no longer close to the people. "When the price of new energy vehicles reaches four or five hundred thousand yuan, will you still give up BBA? "This is a choice that many consumers face.
However, the slowdown in the growth of new energy vehicle production and sales does not mean that the market outlook is bad, and Zhang Xiang estimates that the sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 10 million units in 2024. Compared with the declining traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles are still like a "healthy youth".
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the domestic sales of traditional fuel passenger vehicles in 2023 will be 1,40430,000 units, down 109 percent from the same period last year40,000 units, down 72%。At the same time as the sales volume is declining, the number of fuel vehicles on the market in the past two years has been decreasing year by year, according to statistics, 56 new fuel vehicles will be launched in 2022, and in 2023, only 27 new products will be launched.
On the other hand, in 2023, 53 pure electric vehicles, 31 plug-in hybrids, and 10 range extenders will be launched, for a total of 94 new products, more than three times the new models of traditional fuel vehicles.
In this way, it is only a matter of time before new energy vehicles surpass traditional fuel vehicles.
The industry reshuffle intensifies
China is the world's largest market for new energy vehicles, and sales of new energy passenger vehicles have significantly surpassed those in Europe and North America. According to the data, China's new energy passenger vehicles will account for 63 percent of the world's new energy vehicles in 20235%。
However, China's new energy vehicle market is also extremely competitive, and car companies are facing huge pressure. In 2023, after experiencing multi-dimensional competition such as the first-class war and mileage competition, only four new energy vehicle companies will complete the annual sales target: BYD, Ideal, Geely, and VOYAH.
According to Zhang Xiang, if only 10 new energy vehicle companies are retained in the market, the new energy vehicle market will set off a "bloody rain" in 2024.
At present, Nezha Automobile is in a bad situation. In terms of sales, Nezha Automobile will only deliver 5,135 new cars in December 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 341%, which was the only new car-making force with a year-on-year decline in sales in the month. In the whole year of 2023, Nezha Automobile will deliver a total of about 12 new cars70,000 units, a far cry from the previous annual sales target of 250,000 units. In terms of financial indicators, Nezha Automobile will lose 13 in 2020, 2021, and 20222.1 billion yuan, 290.8 billion and 691.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative loss of more than 11.1 billion yuan.
In October last year, Daniel Zhang, CEO of Nezha Automobile, said that in order to hit the sales target with more diversified products, Nezha Auto is developing models with prices between 100,000 yuan and 250,000 yuan.
But in the market in the range of 10 250,000 yuan, Nezha faces a very strong opponent. After Tesla's first war, BYD and other major car companies accelerated the layout of this level of market. "Wei Xiaoli", which also belongs to the new force of car manufacturing, took the lead in entering the mid-to-high-end market, and it is even more difficult for Nezha to get a "cake" from it. If it continues, even if Nezha has "three heads and six arms", it will be difficult to parry the "Linglong Tower" of the industry.
Among the three "Wei Xiaoli", as the only ideal to achieve the 2023 goal, there is no need to worry, and the "small goal" of 800,000 sales in 2024 is very confident. NIO delivered a total of 160,000 new vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 307%, but the target completion rate is only 64%, so NIO has set a sales target of about 230,000 units in 2024, which is more pragmatic. Xpeng Motors' sales volume in 2023 will be 140,000 units, which also failed to achieve the target, and judging from its performance in January 2024, Xpeng is still under great pressure. In January 2024, Xpeng delivered a total of 8,250 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5811%, becoming the only company in the list of new car deliveries in the same period with less than 10,000 vehicles.
Yu Qingjiao, secretary general of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, said in an interview that car companies need to enhance their competitiveness in multiple dimensions, such as the improvement of product strength and cost control capabilities, the creation of mid-to-high-end brand models, and the development of overseas markets.
Further high-end and specialization
In 2024, the structure of the new energy vehicle industry will continue to adjust and further develop towards high-end and specialization.
According to the research report released by Anxin ** Research Center, there is still a large space for high-end new energy vehicles. In a market of more than 400,000 yuan, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is relatively lowRelevant data show that from January to October 2023, it will only be 175%, compared with the market below 400,000, the penetration rate of new energy still has a lot of room for improvement. Anxin **Research Center**, the sales and proportion of high-end new energy vehicles in 2024 are expected to continue to increase, catalyzed by the launch of a number of new high-end models, in 2024 200,000-300,000 yuan, 300,000-400,000 yuan, more than 400,000 yuan of new energy vehicle sales will reach. 4% and 6%, the structure of the new energy vehicle industry is expected to be further high-end.
In terms of specialization, new energy off-road vehicles ushered in opportunities. Nowadays, the rise of short-distance travel and outdoor leisure travel, the penetration rate of self-driving travel has increased significantly, and higher requirements are put forward for the off-road performance, convenience of energy replenishment, loading capacity, driving texture, riding space, external discharge function, etc., and new energy off-road can better meet the needs of this group, and is expected to become an industry trend in the future. Compared with fuel off-road vehicles, new energy off-road vehicles have four major advantages; The driving experience is good, it can be discharged, the fuel consumption will be lower, and it will be cheaper. Now, BYD, Great Wall, Chery and many other car companies have accelerated the layout of new energy off-road from the dimensions of technology, brand, and product, such as BYD launched the Yangwang U8, Formula Leopard Leopard 5, and there will be Leopard 3 and Leopard 8 in the future; Great Wall Motors has launched the second generation of Haval Big Dog, Haval Raptor and Tank 500 400 Hi4-T, and there will be a number of new cars such as Haval Veyron and Tank 300 700 800 PHEV in the future.
Reverse output of independent brands
There are two camps in the new energy vehicle industry, independent brands and joint venture brands. The self-owned brands are mainly pure electric vehicles, supplemented by hybrid power vehicles, and the mainstream level of range has exceeded 500 kilometers. On the contrary, joint venture brands are dominated by plug-in hybrids, with relatively few pure electric models, and most of them have a range of less than 500 kilometers.
Although the joint venture brand has inherent technical and production advantages, it is hesitant on the road of pure electric development, and the independent brand aims at the new track to achieve corner overtaking. According to the 2023 passenger car sales ranking data of the Passenger Car Association, 5 of the top 10 brands are independent brands, namely BYD, Geely, Changan, Chery, and Great Wall. The annual share of domestic brands reached 52%, accounting for the majority of the market, and for the first time, domestic new energy vehicles represented by BYD surpassed joint venture vehicles.
Through continuous accumulation, independent brands have formed their own unique technologies, and even began to export to joint venture brands. Taking BYD blade battery as an example, on February 2, the power battery project of FAW Group and BYD joint venture was officially put into operation in Jilin, and the blade battery will be installed on FAW's Hongqi ** pure electric vehicle.
Zhang Xiang said that in 2024, there will be more and more such cooperation, and the cooperation methods will become diverse, so that independent brands and joint venture brands can learn from each other's strengths and weaknesses, and the cost advantage of car manufacturing will become more and more obvious.
Typesetting Ji Jiaying.
* Passenger Association, Anxin** Research Center, Oriental IC
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