As the Spring Festival holiday comes to an end, the operating data of Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, as well as private airlines Juneyao Airlines and Spring Airlines, have been released one after another in January 2024. On the whole, the continuous improvement of supply and demand has increased the capacity investment and passenger turnover of each company. Institutions said that the current logic of improving the supply and demand structure of civil aviation remains unchanged, and in the medium and long term, the prosperity of the aviation sector will continue to rise.
Specifically, China Eastern Airlines' monthly passenger capacity investment increased by 65% year-on-year95%；Passenger turnover increased by 87 year-on-year97%；The load factor was 7742%, up 9 percent year-on-year07 percentage points, cargo and mail turnover (in terms of cargo and mail tonnage kilometers) increased by 148 year-on-year44%。Air China's passenger capacity investment increased by 53% year-on-year1%, up 89%；Passenger turnover increased by 69 year-on-year1%, up 121%；The average load factor was 776%, up 7. year-on-year3 percentage points, up 22 percentage points.
In addition, China Southern Airlines announced that the monthly passenger capacity investment increased by 40% year-on-year39%, and passenger turnover increased by 56% year-on-year47% with a load factor of 8101%, up 833 percentage points. HNA Holdings' passenger capacity investment increased by 25% month-on-month33%, up 3241%。Passenger traffic rose 31 percent month-on-month88%, up 2279%。
The data of the two private airlines are also picking up. According to Spring Airlines' announcement, the company's passenger turnover in January increased by 1176%, a year-on-year increase of 5079%；The load factor is 9085%, an increase of 165%, a year-on-year increase of 582%。Juneyao Airlines' passenger capacity investment in the same period increased by 38 year-on-year11%, and passenger turnover increased by 55% year-on-year60%, and the load factor also increased by 9% year-on-year39%。
At the same time, with the continuous optimization of visa and entry and exit policies and the natural recovery of travel demand, the international routes of various airlines are also gradually recovering. Juneyao Airlines, for example, saw a 31-month-on-month increase in its international passenger capacity22%, and international passenger traffic increased by 31% month-on-month27%, and the load factor of international routes increased by 003%。Spring Airlines said that it will continue to recover and even increase capacity on the three traditional advantageous routes of Thailand, Japan and South Korea, which will bring greater help to the company's performance growth.
While the operating data continued to improve, the performance of each company also gradually improved. According to data from the 2024 National Civil Aviation Work Conference, the industry has significantly reduced its loss by 187.2 billion yuan in 2023. Although Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines are still in the red, the amount of loss reduction exceeds 20 billion yuan. Among them, compared with 2022, Air China is expected to reduce its loss by more than 37.3 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that according to Spring Airlines' performance report, the company's profitability is also recovering rapidly, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 2.1 billion yuan to 2.4 billion yuan, which will turn losses into profits compared with the same period last year. According to Spring Airlines, the main reason for the pre-profit is that China's economy will continue to rebound in 2023, the public's willingness to travel will be high, the domestic backlog demand will be well released, and the international and regional routes will recover steadily, which will greatly improve the company's main business. Among them, private demand has gradually become the biggest driving force in the air travel market, especially in the Spring Festival, summer transportation, ** week and small long holiday season, which has brought reliable performance contributions to the company, and the increase in business routes and the recovery of business tourists have also brought better performance stability to the company. In addition, with the improvement of supply and demand in the industry, Juneyao Airlines is also expected to turn losses into profits. According to the announcement, the company expects a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6$800 million to $8800 million yuan, a year-on-year turnaround, of which the fourth quarter decreased by 7 year-on-year400 million to 9400 million yuan.
In the face of the recovery situation during the Spring Festival, GF** said that it is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in the travel chain. Among them, in the aviation sector, based on the two core pricing factors of macro expectations and the recovery of international routes, it is recommended to actively deploy at the bottom.
Looking forward to 2024, SDIC** recommends focusing on the release of domestic aviation demand and the recovery of international flights, and is optimistic about the performance elasticity of airlines under the improvement of the industry competition pattern and the continuous realization of supply and demand logic in the medium term. In addition, it is expected that the pace of recovery of international routes will accelerate in 2024, and the logic of demand recovery and supply and demand will continue to be fulfilled.