Text: Chen Feng. Edit Midnight
In the first week of resumption of work after the holiday, the new energy vehicle industry continued to be in the news.
On February 18, He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xpeng Motors, mentioned in an internal letter that in 2024, Xpeng Motors will invest a total of 3.5 billion yuan in R&D in "AI technology with intelligent driving as the core", and about 30 new products or facelifts will be planned in the next three years, and more than 40% of the R&D budget will be invested.
Immediately afterwards, BYD fired the first shot of the first battle of car companies after the Spring Festival, shouting the slogan of "electricity is lower than oil". The official guide price of its latest Qin plus and Destroyer 05 Glory Edition is 7980,000 yuan, setting a new low for plug-in hybrid cars of the same level in the industry. A number of car companies immediately followed up this round of ** war, making the market below 100,000 yuan full of gunsmoke.
The news of the shutdown of Gaohe Automobile has added a chill to the rim of 2024.
Some car critics broke the news on social ** that Gaohe Automobile may have entered the shutdown stage, and Jiemian News then pointed out in a report that Gaohe Automobile informed all employees through an internal meeting that it would suspend work and production for 6 months from February 18. As early as last year, Gaohe Automobile has already reported news such as delaying the payment of wages, canceling year-end bonuses, and reducing salaries for all employees.
Based on the above news, it is not difficult to find that the main tone of the new energy vehicle industry in 2024 is becoming clearer: more direct confrontation on the first side, more brutal competition on the technical side, and more obvious differentiation in market share.
This is also a continuation of the competitive situation in the industry in 2023.
On the one hand, the first-class war between car companies has almost run through the whole year, as shown in the figure below, BYD, Weilai, Li Xiang, Xiaopeng, Leap and other mainstream car companies have reduced the prices of most models.
Price adjustments of major new energy vehicle companies since 2023, photo source: SPDB International**
On the other hand, under the fierce market competition, some car companies have obviously fallen behind, and even come to the brink of life and death. For example, WM Motor, Gaohe Automobile, "Niu Chuang" and so on.
At the same time, independent brands to accelerate the exploration of high-end, at the same time to 100,000 yuan - 200,000 yuan of Volkswagen ** penetration, has become two parallel main lines - on the one hand, car companies hope to eat more market share in the popularization of new energy vehicles, on the other hand, they hope to be able to stand in the high-end market in advance and win more chips for the future.
It is foreseeable that in 2024, the competition between car companies will only become more brutal, and the knockout competition will continue to be staged.
For most car companies, how to sell more cars and make a profit at the same time will become more and more urgent. At present, among the new car-making forces, the only profitable one is Li Auto, which has a sales volume of 370,000 yuan.
Those car companies that have fallen behind, are mired in layoffs, shutdowns, and financial crises, need to face life and death problems, and how to survive is the core proposition they face.
The day before the announcement of the launch of the first war, at the Guangdong Provincial High-quality Development Conference, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and president of BYD, said:
At present, the transformation of the automobile industry has entered the deep water area, the electrification transformation continues to drive in the fast lane, the intelligent transformation has begun to shift gears and speed up, and the development of new energy vehicles will only run faster and faster, and will not give us the opportunity to stop, slow down and take a breath. ”
BYD is now the most sold new energy vehicle company in the global market, it sold more than 3 million new energy vehicles in 2023, and its previously announced performance forecast shows that the net profit in 2023 will be between 29 billion yuan and 31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7446%-86.49%。
After taking the lead in winning the market scale and continuing to make profits, BYD obviously has more confidence to launch a first-class war - in the past year, the first-class war in the industry is nothing more than BYD and Tesla taking the lead in provoking.
And when BYD continues to accelerate at full speed, it will undoubtedly put pressure on other players in the industry.
For example, BYD will price the Qin plus and destroyer 05 glory version at about 80,000 yuan, and it is likely to continue to rewrite the market pattern within 100,000 yuan.
Li Yunfei, general manager of the brand and public relations department of BYD Group, said that thanks to BYD's large-scale effect and the advantages of the whole industry chain, BYD's plug-in hybrid can be lower than that of fuel vehicles of the same level. At the same time, he said that this move will completely open the decisive battle with fuel vehicles, "Next, who will buy fuel vehicles." ”
Since 2016, in the domestic terminal market (including the fuel vehicle market), the sales scale of ** models within 100,000 yuan has shown a downward trend, from 738 in 201630,000 dropped to 2.6 million in 2023.
However, according to Hua'an's statistics, in recent years, the sales scale of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles in this belt have achieved "one drop and one rise".
The sales volume of fuel vehicles increased from 352 in 202050,000 down to 142 in 202370,000, the market share dropped from 92% to 55%, and the sales scale of new energy vehicles increased from 30 in 202090,000 to 117 in 202340,000, with a market share of 45% from 8%.
Photo source: Hua'an**.
In addition, the users who buy this ** belt model are becoming more and more clear in demand, that is, short-distance travel, the applicability of new energy models will be further released, and it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to increase, and the competition among manufacturers in this ** belt will become more and more fierce.
Among them, the most affected by BYD's ** war is SAIC-GM-Wuling.
In this ** band, SAIC-GM-Wuling has been in the first place in market share for many years since 2013, and its market share will be 26% in 2023.
Now BYD is almost its only competitor, and in April last year, BYD launched the pure electric Seagull model, and it took less than a year to achieve sales of 2210,000 units.
In other words, now that BYD has added Qin PLUS and Destroyer 05 Glory Edition in this zone, it has bid farewell to the competitive play of a single model, which will give GM-Wuling great sales pressure.
It is worth noting that after BYD launched these two cars and started the first war in the camp within 100,000, SAIC-GM-Wuling also quickly followed up.
On February 19, Zhou Yu, deputy general manager of SAIC-GM-Wuling Brand Division, posted on Weibo that "one word, with! ", announced that its Wuling Starlight plug-in hybrid model 150km advanced version, the price of which will be increased from 10580,000 yuan was adjusted to 9980,000 yuan, down to less than 100,000 yuan.
Source: Zhou Yu's personal Weibo.
The reason why Wuling Xingguang must follow up is actually because Wuling's previous models are not selling well. The once best-selling Wuling Hongguang MINI EV has been the No. 1 seller of Chinese brand pure electric vehicles for 28 consecutive months. But in 2023, the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV has lost its halo, and in 2023, the annual sales volume of the Wuling Hongguang MINIEV will be 23790,000 units, down 41% y/y. This year, SAIC-GM-Wuling's annual sales were 1.4 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1231%
Therefore, Wuling Starlight, as Wuling's new "trump card", bears the heavy responsibility of Wuling's "upward" development, and it will inevitably charge for Wuling in this first battle.
In addition, Changan Qiyuan, Nezha Automobile, etc. have followed up and participated in the second round of the first round of the battle.
Among them, Changan Qiyuan Q05 and A05 two models** are both 7Starting from 390,000 yuan, the price of many main models of Nezha Automobile has been reduced, and the price of the Nezha X series is the largest20,000 yuan, Geely Automobile's sub-brand Emgrand also released the Emgrand L HIP Longteng Edition on the 21st, with a starting price of 8890,000 yuan.
In addition, Beijing Hyundai also announced on February 19 that its A-class sedan Elantra model officially reduced its price, with a minimum of 7Starting from 580,000 yuan, SAIC-GM's Buick brand also announced that it will reduce prices or subsidies for some models from February 19 to 29. Among them, Buick LaCrosse, Valeant Pro, and Envision Plus provide 350,000, 550,000, 650,000 yuan bicycle discount and replacement subsidy.
In this round of ** battle, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, said in his personal article, "2024 is a critical year for new energy vehicle companies to gain a firm foothold, and the competition is destined to be very fierce. ”
Cui Dongshu believes that with the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the scale of the traditional fuel vehicle market is gradually shrinking, and the contradiction between the huge traditional production capacity and the gradually shrinking fuel vehicle market has brought a more fierce battle. Scale determines the cost and the survival state of the enterprise, and most manufacturers will give priority to ensuring their share, which will inevitably lead to further intensification of competition.
From this point of view, when BYD, Tesla and other head players who took the lead in realizing the scale effect launched round after round of ** wars, other manufacturers were forced to compete for market share and could only passively follow up, but this may make them sacrifice part of their profit margins and increase the difficulty of making profits.
This also forces a number of new energy vehicle companies to continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, while accelerating the layout of model richness, a clear signal is that the mid-to-high-end market is becoming the hottest market segment.
* War is only one side of the industry competition.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is still in the stage of accelerating upward, coupled with the objective situation of unbalanced penetration in high- and low-tier cities, the sales growth rate is expected to continue to rise in the new year.
SPDB International*** Outlook for 2024, China's NEV passenger vehicle sales will reach 11.19 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27%, and the corresponding penetration rate will be 427%, an increase of 2.41 million units from 2023 sales.
Under this trend, the competition between car companies will also continue to expand in product richness.
On the one hand, the time window of the next two years is particularly important for car companies, and to some extent, it will initially lay the market structure. Bihe Xiaopeng once said, "The next two years are the two most competitive years for the entire new energy vehicle companies, and they are also the two years that determine the success or failure of each car company, which is very critical for every car company." Zhu Jiangming, the founder of Leapmotor, has publicly expressed similar views.
On the other hand, although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, from 2023, in the mid-to-high-end automobile market, the supply of new energy vehicle models still has a lot of room for improvement.
Guolian ** pointed out in a research report that in 2023, new energy vehicles in the low-end market will be more competitive, and among the top ten models, the number of new energy vehicles (corresponding to the share of 38%) has exceeded that of fuel vehicles (the corresponding share is 17%).
However, in the middle market of 8-250,000 yuan, as well as the high-end market above, although individual new energy models have been ranked among the top ten models in each segment, the number of fuel vehicles in the top ten models is still ahead of new energy vehicles.
Source: Hualian**.
For car companies, this is a piece of cake that has to be fought for. First, cut into the most popular ** range, and have the opportunity to sell more cars; Second, the higher the first-class range, the more high-end the market segment that the brand cuts into, and every time a car is sold, the profit margin of the car company is also greater.
We also saw that at the Guangzhou Auto Show in October last year, most of the models that were unveiled, launched and launched were aimed at the mid-to-high-end market, from independent brands to new car-making forces and then to joint venture brands.
From the perspective of the next model planning of car companies, in 2024, the model richness of new energy vehicles will be further improved.
Xpeng plans to launch 30 new models or facelifts in the next three years. Among them, a new car will be released on the 300,000+ level and 150,000 level platforms this year to fill the gap in the 10-400,000** range;
Ideal Auto has also entered the rhythm of intensive release of new models, **Ideal L7 L8 L9 is expected to be launched in March this year, in the first half of the year, Ideal L6 and Ideal MEGA will also be listed, and then in the second half of the year, it will also launch 3 pure electric models;
BYD, on the other hand, plans to continue its strong product cycle. According to Huaan**, it will release more than 10 new cars this year, even including pickup trucks, RVs, coupes, etc., basically covering all subdivisions of passenger cars.
BYD will continue to release new products in 2024, photo source Huaan**
It is not difficult to find that in the new energy vehicle market, the horn of the new car relay race has been sounded.
As we mentioned in the article "At the beginning of 2024, some car companies can't hold on", this year, the first war is only a "basic question" for car companies, and the competition in the industry will be comprehensively upgraded at the level of products, technology, marketing, and chains.
An obvious trend is that when the new energy vehicle industry enters the stage of market-oriented competition, the richness of the first end will further broaden the choice space of users, to a large extent, this requires car companies not to have obvious shortcomings, in order to stand firm in the next round of elimination.
At the same time, this also means that the gap between car companies and car companies is very likely to be further widened, and for those car companies that have shown signs of falling behind, or even have fallen into crisis, making up classes, self-help, and survival will be the top priority.
In 2024, another phenomenon that may occur in the new energy vehicle industry is that the market reshuffle will accelerate, and car companies will exit one after another.
In 2023 alone, WM Motor, Gaohe Automobile, Aiways, Tianji Automobile, Reading Automobile, and Hengchi Automobile have all fallen into an operational crisis and ushered in a "life and death threshold".
Earlier, "Niu Chuang", founded by Li Yinan, the founder of Maverick Electric, in 2018, and rumors of the company's dissolution and large-scale layoffs will be spread in 2022.
Among them, due to the rupture of the capital chain, Aiways was deeply involved in negative news such as employee salary arrears, office rent arrears, and factory shutdowns throughout last year. Prior to this, its cumulative financing amount exceeded 10 billion yuan, but the company has only one production car so far, and the cumulative sales volume is even less than 10,000 units.
Tianji Automobile, which has a weak sense of market presence, has also accumulated more than 10 billion yuan in funds, and the founder Zhang Hailiang once served as vice president of SAIC, and has pulled up a senior management team with more than 20 years of management experience, but the company has only released two production cars so far, and the cumulative sales have not exceeded 10,000.
In 2022, Tianji Auto was frequently rumored to have a tight capital chain, and in less than a year, nearly 70% of the company's employees chose to leave, and in April last year, it announced a shutdown of production.
After April last year, the official WeChat of Tianji Auto was no longer updated.
In addition, in March last year, Hengchi Automobile reported news of layoffs and cost reductions, shutdown of production, and delayed payment of salaries; Founded in 2008, Reading Motors also filed for bankruptcy reorganization in May.
In the past two days, the rumors of "shutdown and shutdown" have intensified, and Gaohe Automobile has been mired in negative rumors since last year.
Tencent Auto" has reported that Gaohe Automobile has begun to lay off employees in disguised form through job transfers, monitoring and attendance, and arrears of subsidies since September last year, and "NetEase Qingliu Studio" also pointed out in a report that some cooperative advertisers of Gaohe Automobile reported that Gaohe Automobile is still in arrears in advertising fees in 2022, with an amount of about hundreds of thousands.
According to the data of the Chedi platform, in 2023, the delivery volume of Gaohe Automobile will only be 8,681 vehicles.
What's even more suffocating is WM Motor.
WM Motor is the first batch of new energy vehicle companies to be established, at first with Weilai, Xiaopeng, Byton and called the "four tigers" of the new car-making forces, it was once the most favored by capital among the new car-making forces, a total of 12 rounds of financing, about 41 billion yuan, of which in 2020 it is the largest single round of financing of 10 billion yuan in the history of the new car-making forces, and the financing amount of "Wei Xiaoli" before listing did not exceed 20 billion yuan.
In 2019, WM Motor's cumulative sales still ranked second among the new car-making forces that year, ranking in the first echelon.
Unfortunately, just two years later, the signs of WM Motor's lag are becoming more and more obvious. In 2021, WM delivered only 440,000 units, only half of the sales of the head new force "Wei Xiaoli", since then the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse and gradually faded out of public view.
For the above-mentioned car companies that have come to the brink of life and death, the key words of this year are "self-help" and "survival", and they will not be able to get off the table.
But this is no easy task.
From 2019 to 2021, WM's three-year cumulative net loss attributable to the parent company was 17.4 billion yuan, of which 8.2 billion yuan was lost in 2021 alone, and the adjusted loss was 53600 million yuan, and by the end of 2022, Weimar's financial predicament began to be exposed, at that time, Weimar CEO Shen Hui issued an internal letter, saying that the company would reduce operating costs through measures such as salary cuts for management, 70% of the basic company for employees, and no longer issuing additional bonuses.
Relying only on "throttling" is obviously a drop in the bucket, and more importantly, it is necessary to "open source", Weimar has tried to list on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hong Kong stocks, but failed, and until now, it is still struggling to save itself.
In October last year, the Shanghai No. 3 Intermediate People's Court received the pre-reorganization application of WM Motor Technology Group, and in January this year, the announcement of the National Enterprise Bankruptcy and Reorganization Case Information Network showed that the reorganization procedure of WM Motor had been accepted by the court.
According to a report by Jiemian News, in addition to announcing a six-month shutdown of production, employees who remain in Gaohe Automobile after March 15 will only be paid their basic salary in Shanghai. Prior to this, Gaohe Automobile had postponed the payment of January wages, canceled the year-end bonus and reduced the salary of all employees.
In June last year, Human Horizons, the parent company of Gaohe Automobile, signed a $5.6 billion agreement with the Saudi Ministry of Investment, but according to the Financial Associated Press, the financing agreement, which was supposed to be reached as soon as last year, is still finalizing the details of the terms, and the two sides have not yet made a final decision.
This means that if Gaohe Motors is unable to find new financing in the short term, it may only be a matter of time before it falls.
It is worth noting that there are still some car companies whose operations have not been substantially affected, but have shown signs of falling behind. For them, whether they can make up for their shortcomings as soon as possible is also a key proposition related to life and death.
For example, Nezha Automobile, in 2022, will rely on 15The delivery of 20,000 units became the sales champion of the new car-making force that year, and it was also the first new power brand with annual sales of more than 150,000 units, and it had just completed a D round of financing of 3 billion yuan, and the company set a sales target of 300,000 in 2023, and even said that it would sell 1 million cars in the global market in 2026.
But the fact is that last year's cumulative deliveries of it were only 127496 units, but instead fell by 162%, and even the only car company among the mainstream new energy vehicle companies with declining sales.
Judging from this year's actions, Nezha Automobile has obviously realized the previous disorder in the product pricing system, product planning system, and marketing system, and has set off a round of personnel changes.
Nezha Automobile CEO Daniel Zhang publicly reflected on last year's shortcomings on Weibo, the source of the picture is Daniel Zhang's personal Weibo.
In addition to CEO Daniel Zhang concurrently serving as the president of the marketing company, Nezha Automobile removed Jiang Feng from the position of executive vice president of the marketing company and Li Changhe from the post of executive vice president of the marketing company.
At the same time, Zhou Jiang was newly appointed as the executive vice president of the marketing company, and Hu Enping was appointed as the executive vice president and director of the creative and new ** department of the marketing company. In addition to the two of them, Nezha Automobile also appointed 1 executive vice president of the marketing company, 4 vice presidents, 2 assistant presidents, and 1 general manager of the marketing company.
However, the biggest uncertainty is whether the "make-up" measures of these lagging car companies can really help them get out of the haze? In 2024, when the competition is becoming more intense with the naked eye, time is running out for them.
It can be said that for all car companies, this year must be psychologically prepared to deal with cruel competition, how to pass the "profit pass" and "life and death pass", testing the comprehensive strength of all car companies.