When we think of South Korea, we may still have the impression that South Korea is full of chaebols, young people lack upward mobility, and are caught in a general poverty and pressure.
Judging from the data, it is true that South Korea's per capita GDP in 2022 will be 3230,000 US dollars, as a new developed country, South Korea's per capita GDP is not outstanding among many developed countries, and South Korea itself is also facing a serious declining birthrate and aging, South Korea is also the country with the lowest birth rate in the world, there is no one.
But even though South Korea is facing a severe population decline, housing prices in the country are still high, especially in terms of Korean income, and buying a house in South Korea is also very stressful, which may also indirectly contribute to the extremely low fertility rate of Koreans.
According to a recent survey report released by South Korea, South Koreans need to go without eating or drinking by 2022.15It takes 2 years to be able to buy a property in Seoul, the capital of South Korea.
The data is the results of the survey released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism on December 22, which sampled 5A face-to-face survey of 10,000 households.
Based on the median, the house-price-to-income ratio of home-owning households in the Seoul metropolitan area in 2022 was 93, which means that people in the capital area need to save money without eating or drinking to buy a house9In 3 years, the house-price-to-income ratio in Seoul increased from 14 in 20211 rose to 15 in 20222, Incheon, South Korea is 71 to 77。
In the average range, South Korea's national average house-price-to-income ratio has increased from 67 to 63, which means that the average Korean needs to go without eating or drinking6In 3 years, you can buy an "average house" in Korea.
But like all developed countries, South Korea itself is not particularly keen on buying a house.
According to the data, the proportion of households with houses in South Korea last year was only 613%, an increase of 07 percentage points, but this is still the highest since the start of the relevant statistics in 2006. Among them, the proportion of households with houses in the capital area increased from 547% to 558%, the highest value in the past 14 years.
The reason why they are generally not keen to buy a house is probably because in these developed economies, the rights and interests of renting are highly protected, and they almost enjoy the same rights to rent and sell.
Compared with us, South Koreans may still be under pressure to buy a house.
According to the "High House-price-to-Income Ratio of 100 Cities in the First Half of 2021", the national average house-price-to-income ratio is 129 years, which means that the average country needs almost 13 years without food or drink to be able to afford a home.
And in South Korea, the number is 63. We are twice the average house-price-to-income ratio in South Korea.
And Koreans in Seoul need not to eat or drink 15It takes 2 years to be able to buy a house, as a comparison, a big city like Shenzhen in my country needs 41It took 6 years, that is, almost a generation, to buy a property in Shenzhen.
The house-price-to-income ratio is determined by one is the house price and the other is the income, and if our house price is high and the income is low, then the natural house-price-to-income ratio is also higher.
Not only that, in the case of the higher our house price to income ratio, in turn, China's demand for family housing is still enthusiastic, the traditional demand theory tells us that the higher the commodity, the lower the demand, the lower the commodity, the higher the demand.
However, at the request of the "mother-in-law", China's housing prices have been soaring for decades, but the demand has not diminished at all, but has intensified.
But today, as negative population growth begins and the rigid demand of the past few decades continues to be depleted, the demand for real estate has also begun to decline.
According to the analysis of Wu Jing, Xu Mandi and others at Tsinghua University, the national housing demand is shrinking, from about 9.74 million units in 2011-2015, to 6.56 million units in 2021-2025, and to 4.55 million units in 2026-2030.
At its peak, it is not an exaggeration to call real estate a pillar industry in China, when there were nearly 14 million to 15 million houses, supporting the world's largest real estate market, and also cultivating nearly 100,000 real estate companies, driving tens of millions of jobs.
Not only that, but the real estate boom has also boosted local income.
In 2021, the national income from land sales was 87 trillion yuan, and by 2022, this figure will drop to 67 trillion, down 233%, which can also explain that when the real estate downturn, it affects not only the good or bad of the macro economy, but also the local income.
Not only that, real estate, as a consumer product, has also dissipated the consumption power of Chinese residents to a certain extent.
Twenty years of housing loans, the interest repaid is the ability to consume, and the mortgage for 30 years, then it is the consumption power of 30 years, which is why, when real estate begins to enter the stock market, when our macro economy begins to rely on consumption as the support engine, consumption will be weak.
For families who just need it, a house loan for 30 years, the interest is 500,000, and the 500,000 yuan will be slowly repaid in 30 years, which is the consumption of part of the family's consumption power.
This trend is likely to continue to be seen in the coming years.
In other words, how much the macro economy relied on real estate in the past, then how much real estate will drag down the macro economy in the future.
In 2018-2019, the contribution rate of real estate to the growth of manufacturing investment reached 42%, while in 2020-2021 it fell by 35%, and in 2022 it further decreased to 16%.
In the past few decades, the asset appreciation of real estate has created a lot of wealth, but it has also generated a lot of debt, wealth and debt are mixed together, solidified into houses, infrastructure, and in the future, with the decline of assets, wealth may be diluted, but debt will not.
The real estate bubble, the elephant in the room, is one thing that has to be talked about.
There are two ways to measure the level of a real estate bubble, one is the house-price-to-income ratio, and the other is the real estate rent-to-sale ratio.
The house-price-to-income ratio refers to the ratio of people's income to housing prices in an economy, if the income is low but the housing price is still high, it means that there is a non-market relationship between supply and demand, and there is a certain bubble in the house.
The real estate rent-to-sale ratio can also reflect the bubble well, and the rent-to-sale ratio can reflect the real estate **, and a good real estate worthwhile investment ** rent-to-sale ratio should be about 1:200, that is, 200 months' rent is equal to the ** of a suite.
However, because of the generality of our income, the real estate is high, but the rent is cheap.
At present, the real estate rent-to-sale ratio in China is about 1:600, that is, 600 months' rent is equal to the ** of a suite.
From these two perspectives, it shows that China's real estate is high, and there is some moisture in it.
The international reasonable house-price-to-income ratio is 3-6 times, that is, buying a house for 3-6 years without eating or drinking, while in first-tier cities, the house-price-to-income ratio has reached 45 times, which also shows that housing prices have reached a staggering level.
In the end, high housing prices have overdrawn part of people's spending power for the next 30 years, and today, the impact of real estate is far from over, and for young people, houses are like a big mountain, deeply pressing on the hearts of every young person.
Its shaping and changing effect on the whole society is happening in a silent way, and this timeline may continue for several years.