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Foreword: Energy issues have always been the focus of attention in the international political economy. Recently, India asked Russia to give oil discounts, while Iran secretly raised the price of China's oil**. At the same time, the United States took advantage of the war to make a lot of war money. These changes are tugging at the nerves of the global energy market. This article will look at the issue of discounts on Russian oil in India, Iran's price hikes to China, and the acceleration of U.S. energy exports.
1. India wants Russia to give a discount: the oil is too expensive, India reaches out for a discount, and Russia has been pinched by Modi?
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia's reliance on energy exports** has greatly eased its economy, so much so that in 2023 there has been positive growth, and the unemployment rate has reached the lowest point since the founding of the country. However, the share purchased by China and India already accounts for 90% of Russia's total energy exports. But India has expressed strong dissatisfaction with oil**. Satellite imagery shows that five Russian tankers loaded with Sokol oil abruptly turned back on their way to India, and India's imports of Russian oil have also fallen to the lowest level since the beginning of 2023. There is widespread suspicion in the West that Indian refineries are not paying for oil because they fear being sanctioned for violating the restrictions. India's oil minister said that the reason for reducing imports of Russian oil is that Russian oil is no longer attractive in terms of imports. India advocates the most economical access to energy that is not interfered with by external forces. But the buyout may be just a test for India, which is currently heavily dependent on energy exports, with India being its largest exporter. This move is also in line with the national nature of Indians to "love to take advantage of small advantages".
2. Iran raises prices for China: Iran sits on the ground and starts to raise prices for China, and it will rise by $4 per barrel of oil, just to make more money?
Iran's oil flows to China** have stalled, mainly due to Iran's offer to suspend deliveries and its demand for higher payments**. China is Iran's largest oil exporter, with Iranian oil accounting for 10% of China's oil imports. Iran called the Chinese side in early December, saying that the discount on the Iranian light *** originally planned to be delivered to the Chinese side needs to be adjusted, from the original price of $10 per barrel to $5-6 per barrel. In other words, the price of each barrel of Iranian light ** purchased by China will increase by $4-5 in the future. Iran seems to believe that because Iranian oil accounts for a huge proportion in China, Iran can stab China in the back at the critical moment of China's competition with the United States, and use the supply cut to blackmail China to buy Iran at a higher level. But in fact, in the context of the market economy, the most important thing between countries is business reputation, which is the foundation of the country that cannot be exchanged for real money. Iran's temporary price increase may achieve certain economic effects in the short term, but in the long run, it will only shoot itself in the foot.
In recent years, the United States has taken advantage of the war to make two fortunes. First, in December last year, US LNG exports hit monthly and annual highs, becoming the world's largest LNG exporter, largely thanks to the impact of Europe's war on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. European gas spending has skyrocketed as Europe has switched to US LNG due to the disruption of Gazprom**. Secondly, in the context of the escalation of the conflict with Kazakhstan, the export volume of the United States has surged, breaking the historical record. This is due to the fact that cheap** ships importing from the U.S. can avoid travel to the Arab region and the Red Sea, reducing transportation time and costs. U.S. exports are expected to continue to rise, further boosting U.S. energy export earnings.
Summary: India's demand for oil discounts from Russia, Iran's increase in oil prices to China, and the acceleration of U.S. energy exports all reflect the volatility and changes in the global energy market. These changes not only affect the economic interests of various countries, but also reflect the complex relationship between energy supply and demand and international politics to a certain extent. Against this backdrop, countries need to maintain a keen ability to observe and respond to the changing energy market landscape.
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