According to the data of the People's Bank of China, from the Chinese New Year's Eve to the fifth day of the Lunar New Year (February 9-February 14) in 2024, the total amount of industry-wide online payment transactions processed by Netlink and UnionPay is 774 trillion yuan (up 10. year-on-year.)1%), and social consumption has generally recovered steadily.
*Jewelry is the sub-industry with the highest sales growth and prosperity in 2023, and the company's performance is relatively strong. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, from the first to the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, the Ministry of Commerce focused on monitoring the sales of gold, silver and jewelry of retail enterprises increased by more than 10% year-on-year. Riding the bull and watching the bear believes that the demand is strong before and after the Spring Festival, the gold price is on the rise, and the industry is expected to maintain both investment and hedging attributes.
*Jewelry sales in the Spring Festival peak season slightly exceeded expectations under the high base, **Jewelry consumption performed well, and offline passenger flow in key business districts increased by double digits. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, from the first to the fifth day of the Lunar New Year (10-14), the sales of gold, silver and jewelry of key monitored retail enterprises nationwide increased by more than 10% year-on-year. From Chinese New Year's Eve to the seventh day of the new year (2-16), the passenger flow of key business districts across the country increased by 73%. Among them, the offline passenger flow of 35 business districts in Shanghai was monitored during the 8-day Spring Festival, and the offline passenger flow increased by 119%, and the consumption of the catering industry increased by 163%, the sales of 14 time-honored enterprises such as Green Wave Corridor increased by 301%。The sales of retail enterprises such as department stores, restaurants and e-commerce monitored by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce increased by 368%, an increase of 64 over 19 years1%。
In the short term, the correlation between supply and demand and gold prices is not significant, and the scarcity of resources in the medium and long term is becoming increasingly prominent. According to USGS statistics, by the end of 2023, there will be about 590,000 tonnes for about 16 years of mining. According to S&P statistics, the average total sustaining cost of the world's major mines in 2023Q1 was US$1,289 per ounce, with the rising cost side providing support for gold prices**.
Under the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the allocation value once again highlights that real interest rates are the opportunity cost of holding, and there is a strong negative correlation between the two. High consumption-led economic growth is unsustainable, and the easing of inflation and employment pressures has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts. The bull and bear riders found that the US core CPI fell below 3% in Q2, and the Fed is expected to start the process of cutting interest rates. Historical review found that gold prices rose by an average of 5 during the interest rate plateau4%, with an average increase of 25% in the cycle of interest rate cuts.
In 2023, the overseas gold price will be substantial**, and the average price of the comex ** will be 1942$77 oz, year-over-year**793%。Affected by the depreciation of the RMB, the domestic gold price rose higher than overseas. The average domestic price was 450 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1471%。Since the company's sales are mainly in China, the company has benefited more. The price of molybdenum and copper has a positive impact on the company's profits, and the domestic molybdenum price is 38810,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of **373%, the average price of domestic copper is 6840,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of **133%。
As of the end of 2022, the Group has not injected 1,179 tons of gold resource reserves into CICC and China International. In 2023, the Company acquired the mining rights of the Shaling Gold Mine held by the Group, and the project is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2025. According to the tenement assessment report, the production of Shaling Gold Mine in 2025-2027 is 139/5.54/9.7 tons, and the output will be stable at 11 after full production in 202808 tons. The injection of the Shaling gold mine will increase the company's self-produced production and improve profitability.
Online sales in the cosmetics and ** jewelry industry in 2023. The trend of sales differentiation in the cosmetics industry on the Alibaba Douyin platform continues, but the average price is gradually approaching, among which the domestic mass brands with high cost performance and efficacy maintain high growth. **In 2023, jewelry will maintain a high prosperity due to factors such as demand release & product fashion, and rising gold prices, and the terminal retail sales will grow significantly. Riding the bull and watching the bear believes that the international situation is becoming increasingly complex and geopolitical variables are increasing, and there is still upward momentum in the medium term.
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