Foreword
Heading into 2024, the Hammers seem to have been relegated from the bottom of the team, with no wins in eight games, with only relegation favourites Burnley with two points less than the three they have achieved. The London derby against Brentford will be crucial for the Hammers, not only to salvage a three-game losing streak in the league, but also to win back the hearts and minds of their home fans (almost half of them left early in the last six-goal defeat to local rivals Arsenal). Will they be able to get what they want?
Home team fundamentals
West Ham United's recent league form has been rather poor, with a 16-point gap between them and fourth-placed Villa already widened, and it is clear that hopes of a top-four finish this season have all but been extinguished. They have lost their last three Premier League matches without scoring a single goal, while conceding 11 goals defensively (3-0 against Manchester United, 6-0 against Arsenal and 2-0 against Nottingham Forest).
West Ham United's tactical style of play has not changed much in recent times, and the team is still playing against opponents in a 4231 formation. However, due to the fact that the state of the main players is not very stable, there is a big gap between the interception ability of the midfield and the middle of the season. The team has had as many as eight games this season in which opponents have completed 20 or more shots in a single game, and so far only Sheffield United (434 shots, 50.).85XGA) and Luton Town (428 shots on goal, 5228 GA) Bissiham United (420 shots on goal, 467XGA) is more vulnerable to opponents. Therefore, it can be intuitively seen from the data that it is difficult to effectively limit the opponent's offense.
On the other hand, Paqueta's injury has had a very big impact on the team. They have won 10 of their 18 league games with Paqueta so far this season (56% win rate), averaging 17 pcs. Without him, the Hammers have won the game at the end of seven games, averaging just 0 goals per game7 pcs. It was revealed before the game that he will return from injury.
Away team fundamentals
Brentford has won 7 wins, 4 draws and 14 losses after 25 rounds of Premier League matches this season, including 3 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses in 12 away games, scoring a total of 35 goals and conceding 44 goals, and is currently ranked 15th in the league. After losing 1-0 away to Manchester City in the last round of the league and winning 2 and losing 4 of their last six games, the team's recent results do not look very good. However, it is worth noting that these four defeats have faced two against Manchester City, one against Liverpool and one against Tottenham. In addition, the team's defensive performance was relatively poor, which became one of the main reasons for their poor results.
Mr. Tony has scored four Premier League goals since his first appearance of the season on 20 January, more than any other Bees player in the same period, and he has been a key performer in previous London derbyes, with Mr. Tony netting 16 Premier League goals in his last 21 home and away games in London. Meanwhile, against derby opponents, he has scored 5 goals in his last 7 matches. So in this game against the Hammers, he still has the ability to threaten the opponent's hinterland.
Historical vs. Match Performance
The two teams met in the first leg of this season, with the home Bees winning 3-2 and surprisingly winning all of their last five Premier League meetings. So from a psychological point of view, the advantage of the away team is obvious, and it can be called the out-and-out nemesis of West Ham. But judging from the home and away results of the two teams this season, the Hammers are still significantly better than the Bees. They have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 home games this season, losing only to Arsenal in the title contenders. The Bees, on the other hand, have lost particularly well on the road this season, losing eight of their 12 away games, suggesting that they face a challenge when playing in an off-site position.
Technical Analysis
Judging from the attitudes of all sides, the support given to the two teams is evenly divided. In the current situation, the little bees with Mr. Tony in the front line will definitely attract the attention and enthusiasm of the vast majority of fans, but I think this is a sign that West Ham have hit the bottom, coupled with their home results and the expected return of Paqueta, the core of the attack, the team's 4231 style of play will become solid again. So I think West Ham will be able to defend their home game, at least not against the Bees, what do you think?
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